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Biospheric context of Siberian development

Biospheric context of Siberian development
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  Nature Precedings 2008: 1 B IOSPHERIC CONTEXT O S IBERI!N "E#E$OP%ENT   Georgii A. Alexandrov 1,2 , Gen Inoue 3 , Tsuneo Matsunaga 1   1 Nat&'nal In(t&t)te *'r En+&r'n,ental St)d&e(- On'aa 12- T())3a- apan 2 In(t&t)te '* !t,'(pher&5 Ph6(&5(- R)((&an !5ade,6 '* S5&en5e(- P6he+(6 - %'(5'- R)((&a  Re(ear5h In(t&t)te *'r H),an&t6 and Nat)re- %'t'6a,a- 96't'- apan C'rre(p'nden5e and re)e(t( *'r ,ater&al( (h')ld 3e addre((ed t' ;.!.!. <.ale=andr'+>n&e(.'.?p@ The Soviet planners are sometimes criticized for distorting economic geography by allocating cities, factories and universities in Siberia that formed a burden for the market economy of the modern Russia. Such criticism leads to conclusion that Russia must contract its economic geography, concentrate its population, improve connection between cities, and even move them to warmer, more productive places 1 . Here, we evaluate the pathways for Siberian development in the biospheric context take into account human appropriation of !arth"s net primary productivity 2--4-A   and introduce a threshold beyond which sustainable   development is not achievable. The t'tal terre(tr&al net pr&,ar6 pr'd)5t&'n <NPP@ &( e(t&,ated t' 3e 0 PC 6  1 . Th&( n),3er (h'( 3&'(phere p'tent&al t' ()ppl6 pr&,ar6 *''d ener6 (')r5e *'r all n'na)t'tr'ph&5 (pe5&e( &n5l)d&n h),an(. H),an appr'pr&at&'n '* terre(tr&al net pr&,ar6 pr'd)5t&'n &( a((),ed t' 3e *r', 8 t' 1A PC 6  1  &n t'tal    that &(- 12 tC per('n 1  6 1 . !( &t 5an 3e (een *r', the &)re 1- there are ,an6 pla5e( &n the 'rld here NPP per 5ap&ta &( le(( than 2.A tC per('n 1  6 1. . One ,a6 'nl6 (tr&+e *'r a survivable  de+el'p,ent   there *'r at th&( le+el '* NPP per 5ap&ta n'th&n 'r l&ttle re,a&n( *'r 'ther n'na)t'tr'ph&5 (pe5&e(. The 'rld a+erae le+el '* NPP per 5ap&ta- a3')t 10 tC per('n 1  6 1 - ,ean( that h),an( appr'pr&ate appr'=&,atel6 20D '* NPP. E+en &n the ellp'p)lated re&'n( '* S&3er&a- NPP per 5ap&ta e=5eed( the a+erae le+el (e+eral t&,e( ()e(t&n the &nd' '* 'pp'rt)n&t6 *'r ()(ta&na3le de+el'p,ent.   Figure 1.The global pattern of NPP per capita, in tC person -1  y  -1  Nature Precedings 2008: 2 Ta&n &nt' a55')nt the e5'l'&5al *''tpr&nt 7  '* a 5&t6  the area '* pr'd)5t&+e land re)&red *'r ()pp'rt&n &t( a5t&+&t6 &n a ()(ta&na3le a6  &,pl&e( 5erta&n l&,&t( *'r 5'n5entrat&n p'p)lat&'n 'n l'pr'd)5t&+e land(. The &)re 2 (h'( that e5'l'&5al *''tpr&nt( &n5rea(e 10 t&,e( at l'pr'd)5t&+e land( a( 5',pared t' h&hpr'd)5t&+e land(. Th&( al(' &,pl&e( &n5rea(e &n ()(ta&na3le d&(tan5e 3eteen 5&t&e(. The d&(tan5e 3eteen 5&t&e( &n the n'rth '* S&3er&a (h')ld 3e d')3le that &n the (')th '* S&3er&a. The d&(tan5e 3eteen 5&t&e( &( a (er&')( &,ped&,ent t' e5'n',&5 de+el'p,ent. Spread&n p'p)lat&'n 5enter( '+er +a(t d&(tan5e(- e(pe5&all6 &n S&3er&a- l''( l&e a reat err'r '* S'+&et planner(. O)r anal6(&(- h'e+er- (h'( that th&( pattern '* p'p)lat&'n d&(tr&3)t&'n ,a6 (te, *r', the l' land pr'd)5t&+&t6. T' en()re ()(ta&na3le de+el'p,ent- the a+erae d&(tan5e 3eteen 5&t&e( &n R)((&a (h')ld 3e l'ner than that &n S!. %'re'+er- the d',&nant pattern '* NPP per 5ap&ta <&)re 1@ &n R)((&a d'e( n't d&**er *r', that &n S!- ran5e and Spa&n: red d't( <(p't( '* ()r+&+a3le de+el'p,ent@ are )n&*'r,l6 (5attered '+er the 6ell' 3a5r')nd <'ne '* ()(ta&na3le de+el'p,ent@. In (h'rt 'rd(- S'+&et planner( had a d&**&5)lt 5h'&5e  t' 5'n5entrate pe'ple at the le+el '* ()r+&+a3le de+el'p,ent- 'r t' eep the, &n the 5'ld. The6 5h'(e the latter. That ,&ht 3e a ,&(tae- 3)t n't an '3+&')( 'ne. N'3'd6 ne that pe'ple ere n't 3'rn &n S&3er&a 5')ld n't adapt t' &t( 5l&,ate. The l&,&t( *'r h),an adapt&'n t' the 5'ld 8  ere real&ed 'nl6 &n 1F80(. The e5'n',&5 5'llap(e '55)rred &n 1FF0( h&hl&hted the ethn'raph&5 a(pe5t '* the pr'3le,. "e(p&te the la5 '* an6 &n5ent&+e( *'r (ta6&n &n the area( '* 5l&,at&5 d&(5',*'rt- G(&3er6a& d&d n't ,&rate t' ar,er- ,'re   Figure 2.The global pattern of the urban footprint index !F"# , in $% -2  & the area of productive land re'uired for supporting sustainable develop%ent of a locality (ith population of 2) ))). N*+ !F" %ay be also expressed in ter%s of distance bet(een the cities e.g., by ta$ing the s'uare root of the footprint area#.  Nature Precedings 2008:  pr'd)5t&+e pla5e(. The ,&rat&'n *l'( '* 1F201F80 (ee,&nl6 *'r,ed a +&'r')( ethn'( h&5h &( elladapted t' (pe5&*&5 5'nd&t&'n( '* S&3er&a F  and n),3er( 20 ,&ll&'n(. hat 5an the (&3&r6a6 e=pe5t &n the 21 (t  5ent)r6J ;l'3al ar,&n and the r'th '* the 'rldK( p'p)lat&'n *'r, 5'nd&t&'n( *'r the a55elerated de+el'p,ent '* S&3er&a and *)rther ,&rat&'n a+e(. Hen5e- R)((&an e5'n',&(t( *a5e the (a,e 5hallene a( S'+&et planner(: h&5h 5r&ter&a t' )(e &n e+al)at&n the d&re5t&'n( *'r S&3er&an de+el'p,ent. S',e e5'n',&(t( 3el&e+e that the e5'l'&5al ()(ta&na3&l&t6 '* a 5&t6 &( the *a5t'r that de5l&ne( &n &,p'rtan5e at a t&,e '* e5'n',&5 l'3al&at&'n. S&n5e )r3an p'p)lat&'n depend( larel6 'n l'3al ,aret(- the (tate '* the l'3al ,aret( &( ,'re &,p'rtant *'r 5&t6 r'th than the (tate '* ()rr')nd&n e5'(6(te,(. Th&( *'r,( an &,pre((&'n that e5'l'&5al l&,&t( t' 5&t6 r'th are d&(appear&n. H'e+er- th&( &( a *al(e &,pre((&'n. The l&,&t( are n't d&(appear&n. In 'rder t' (ee the, e need t' an(er the )e(t&'n: GH' ,)5h '* the 3&'(phereK( pr'd)5t&+&t6 e 5an appr'pr&ate 3e*'re the planetar6 (6(te,( 3e&n t' 3rea d'nJ A . It &( )nl&el6 that the l'3al ,aret( 5an re(&(t the 3rea d'n '* the planetar6 (6(te,(. e alread6 appr'pr&ate 20D '* the 3&'(phereK( pr'd)5t&+&t6. H' *ar aa6 are e n' *r', the thre(h'ld at h&5h the l'3al ,aret( 3e&n t' 3rea d'nJ The r'le '* l'5al e5'l'&5al l&,&t( 5an 3e (een at a t&,e '* an e5'n',&5 5'llap(e. The *a5t that (&3er6a& ()r+&+ed the 5r&(&( '* 1FF0( all'( )( t' a((),e that &t ')ld 3e ,'re ea(6 *'r the, t' adapt t' ant&5&pated l'3al 5hane(- &* the p'p)lat&'n den(&t6 ')ld 3e &n 3alan5e &th the nat)ral pr'd)5t&+&t6 '* S&3er&an e5'(6(te,(  that &(- &* the de+el'p,ent '* S&3er&a ')ld p)r()e ()(ta&na3&l&t6 'al(. #ethods. The r&dded data 'n NPP per 5ap&ta ere der&+ed *r', r&dded data 'n the n'r,at&+e pr'd)5t&+&t6 '* the l'3al +eetat&'n <+er(&'n 1.1@ 10  and r&dded data 'n the p'p)lat&'n '* the 'rld 11  at hal*deree re('l)t&'n. The r&dded data 'n I ere 5al5)lated *r', the r&dded data 'n n'r,at&+e pr'd)5t&+&t6 ,ent&'ned a3'+e )(&n the e)at&'n:- here n L20 000 &( the ,&n&,al p'p)lat&'n '* a l'5al&t6 t' 3e na,ed a( 5&t6 a55'rd&n t' N re5',,endat&'n- s L10 tC per('n 1 6 1  &( ()(ta&na3le le+el '* NPP per 5ap&ta. $opyright and use of materials.  The &)re1 'r &)re 2 5an 3e 5'p&ed and re)(ed &n the art&5le( 'r pre(entat&'n(- 3)t 'nl6 &* the 'r&&nal (')r5e &( 5&ted &n the 5apt&'n a( GC')rte(6 36 !le=andr'+- In')e- %at()naa < Nature Precedings - 2008@ and 5'rre5t re*eren5e &( added t' the re*eren5e l&(t. %&.  Th&( &( an a)th'rK( r&te)p '* re(ear5h re()lt( <that &(- prepr&nt@. S',e '* the re()lt( appeared &n the  - !llR)((&an e5'n',&5 ?')rnal <http://e5'n',.n(5.r)/ECO/IN",@- h&5h (h')ld 3e 5&ted a( *'ll'(. !le=andr'+- ;.!.- In')e- ;.- %at()naa- T. B&'(pher&5 !(pe5t( '* S&3er&a "e+el'p,ent.   <  /ll-0ussian econo%ic ournal  @ 2011 <2@: 1471A1M http://e5'n',.n(5.r)/ECO/arh&+/(),,ar6/(),,ar62011, 1  H&ll- .  ;add6- C.;. The iberian Curse+ 3o( co%%unist planners left 0ussia out in the cold   <Br''&n In(t&t)t&'n Pre((- a(h&nt'n- 200@ 2  #&t')(e- P.%.- Ehrl&5h- P.R.- Ehrl&5h- !.H.- %at('n- P.!. H),an appr'pr&at&'n '* the pr'd)5t( '* ph't'(6nthe(&(. *ioscience   '( - 87 <1F8@   I,h'**- %.$. et al. ;l'3al pattern( &n h),an 5'n(),pt&'n '* net pr&,ar6 pr'd)5t&'n. Nature   )*+ - 87087 <2004@ 4  Ha3erl- H. et al. Q)ant&*6&n and ,app&n the h),an appr'pr&at&'n '* net pr&,ar6 pr'd)5t&'n &n earthK( terre(tr&al e5'(6(te,(. PN/   -) - 12F4212F47 <2007@  Nature Precedings 2008: 4 A  'le6- ;.!.- %'n*reda- %.- Ra,an)tt6- N.-  a(- ". O)r (hare '* planetar6 p&e. PN/   -) - 12A8A12A8 <2007@   %ead'(- ".$. It &( t'' late t' a5h&e+e ()(ta&na3le de+el'p,ent- n' let )( (tr&+e *'r ()r+&+a3le de+el'p,ent. In: To(ard global planning of sustainable use of the arth  <ed. %)ra&- S.@ AF74 <El(e+&er- !,(terda,- 1FFA@  7  C'll&n(- .P. et al. ! ne )r3an e5'l'6.  /%erican cientist     - 4142A <2000@ 8  Pr'h'r'+ B.B. 4edico-geographical infor%ation in developing ne( regions of iberia for proect designing and planning# M <N'+'(&3&r(- Na)a- 1F7F- 200p.@ F  %'&(ee+- R.S.- S',e ,eth'd'l'&5al and ,eth'd&5al &(()e( '* 'n&n R)((&an N'rth. Proceedings of a%chat$a branch of Pacific "nstitute of 5eorgraphy Far ast *ranch of 0ussian /cade%y of ciences#   ( - A4 <200@ 10  !le=andr'+- ;.!.  %at()naa- T. N'r,at&+e pr'd)5t&+&t6 '* the l'3al +eetat&'n. Carbon *alance and 4anage%ent   2008- ' :8M d'&:10.118/17A00808 http://.53,?')rnal.5',/5'ntent//1/8M al(' a+a&la3le at http://5er.n&e(.'.?p/5ere/d3/enterpr&(e/5(a/&,l- 'r 'n re)e(t. 11  Center *'r Internat&'nal Earth S5&en5e In*'r,at&'n Net'r <CIESIN@- C'l),3&a n&+er(&t6M Internat&'nal ''d P'l&56 Re(ear5h In(t&t)te <IPRI@M and 'rld Re(')r5e( In(t&t)te <RI@. ;r&dded P'p)lat&'n '* the 'rld <;P@- #er(&'n 2. <Pal&(ade(- N: CIESIN- C'l),3&a n&+er(&t6- C'll&n( et al@M a+a&la3le at http://(eda5.5&e(&n. 5'l),3&a.ed)/pl)e/p
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