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Energy and Nuclear Development in Japan and in Asia - the role of nuclear power -

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9 th Annual European Nuclear Power Budapest, Hungary Energy and Nuclear Development in Japan and in Asia - the role of nuclear power - Tomoko (TOM) Murakami Manager, Nuclear Energy Group The Institute
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9 th Annual European Nuclear Power Budapest, Hungary Energy and Nuclear Development in Japan and in Asia - the role of nuclear power - Tomoko (TOM) Murakami Manager, Nuclear Energy Group The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan July 1, Our Frequently Asked Questions and Contents FAQs What impact has been given to Japanese energy balances and economy due to the long nuclear moratorium? What is the major objective of the Strategic Energy Plan of Japan? Phasing nuclear out or not? Why are all nuclear units shut down now? And when? Contents 1. Impact on Japanese energy balances and economy 2. The Strategic Energy Plan of Safety assessment procedure and the restart 4. Role of nuclear in Asian countries Energy policy and outlook 2 1. Impact on Japanese energy balance and economy 1-1. Trends of the power balances in Japan Well diversified and balanced power portfolio - collapsed in 2 years Heavily dependent on fossil fuels Trend of the generation by fuel from 1971 to 2012 in Japan Generation (GWh) 1,200,000 1,000, , , ,000 Renewables Geothermal/new energy Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Nuclear 1% Geothermal/n ew energy 1% Hydro 8% 7% 27% Renewables 4% 1% 2% Coal 28% 27% 1,025TWh(2012-outside) 1,071TWh(2010-inside) 9% 200,000 Gas 41% 27% Oil 17% 0 Year Source: IEA, Energy Balances of OECD Countries 3 1. Impact on Japanese energy balances and economy 1-2. Fossil fuel consumption significantly increased Despite decreasing electricity generation from FY2010 Δ7% in FY2011, Δ10% in FY2012, Δ10% in FY2013 Fossil fuel consumption increased from FY2010 by: +23% in FY2011, +34% in FY2012 and +34% in FY2013 Mtoe 160 TWh 1, , FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 Oil LNG Coal Power generation (right axis) Trends of the fossil fuel consumption for electricity generation Source: Trends of Fossil Fuel Input for Power Generation more than 3 Years after the Great East Japan Earthquake, Takayuki Yoshioka, the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan 700 4 1. Impact on Japanese energy balances and economy 1-3. Average generation costs increased Average generation costs increased from JPY8.6/kWh in FY2010 to JPY 13.5/kWh in FY Nuclear Power, as a quasi domestic and stable power supply source had greatly contributed to the energy security and the economic growth in Japan. 14 円 /kwh Fukushima accident FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 Source : Corporate financial documents of 12 utilities 5 2. The Strategic Energy Plan of Major issues On April 11, 2014, the government decided on an energy policy that labels nuclear power as an important base-load power source , retracting a nuclear phase-out goal upheld by its predecessor after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi complex disaster. The government also promised to seek to introduce renewables even higher than the level aimed at in the past, adding that the previous Strategic Energy Plan of 2010 expected renewables to account for about 20 percent of the total electricity demand in The government did not include specific percentages of the country's future power portfolio in the plan, citing the difficulty to foresee at the moment the number of reactors that will be safe enough to restart and the amount of renewable energy available. Source: Mainichi News, 11 April news/ p2g00m0dm038000c.html 6 2. The Strategic Energy Plan of Overview of the Strategic Energy Plan Chap1-1 Structural Energy Issues in Japan High dependence on imported fossil fuel Decreasing population and energy consumption Chap1-2 : Problems revealed after Fukushima Accident Outflow of national wealth and increasing instability of supply - increasing risks for disruption of supply chains Increased electricity tariff due to the anticipated change of power portfolio Concerns on nuclear safety and risk acceptance Emerging economies and the shale revolution Chap 2 Basic Policy- 3E+S - On the premise of Safety, the Energy Security is the top priority Achieving the Environmental condition with the highest Economic Efficiency Market development to the overseas consumers Ready for both normal sustainability and for emergency preparedness Chap 3 Issues 3-1 Securing sustainable supply of resources Cooperation with suppliers Favorable terms of procurement 3-10 International cooperation /contribution 3-2 Advanced energy-saving 3-3 Developing renewables 3-4 Reconstructing nuclear policy 3-5 Advanced technology on fossil fuels 3-6 Market reform on electricity and gas 3-7 Resilience of the domestic supply network 3-8 Sophisticated use of energy Co-generation, eco-car, hydrogen 3-9 Advanced structure on energy industry Complex Energy Firm, Smart Community Chap 4 Technology roadmap Chap 5 Dialogue with the public and mutual communication 7 2. The Strategic Energy Plan of Nuclear related issues in the Strategic Energy Plan What is nuclear? - Satisfies all of the 3E Excellent in Economic Efficiency: Large energy density and less volatile cost Excellent in Energy Security: Quasi-domestic energy durable for several months cut-off Excellent in Environmental Compatibility: zero emission during operation The plan suggests, however: Safety precedes every other factor We must watch the appropriate share of nuclear while paying maximum effort to decrease it Issues on nuclear power Nuclear power Spent fuel management Nuclear fuel cycle policy Statement in the Strategic Energy Plan - An important base-load power source - Reduce share of nuclear power as low as possible, while securing necessary capacity. - Restart NPPs which are fit with NRA s safety standard - Need to pursue necessary measures steadily - Government should encourage use of interim storage facilities - Need to promote steadily Source: METI, http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/topics/kihonkeikaku/140225_1.pdf (Japanese ) 8 3. Safety assessment procedure and the restart 3-1.Why are all nuclear units shut down? Utilities March August Immediate Safety 11 March Measures Fukushima Accident July 2011 August 2012 Assessment on the Stress Test - 30 units submitted July 2012 Ohi-3/4 restart From July 8 to the present Licensing applications for restart Ikata 3 Ohi 3&4 Sendai 1&2 etc Safety Regulatory Authority March 23 Order on Immediate Safety Measures March 2012 Ohi-3/4 Report approved by NISA/ASC 6 July Order on the Stress Test Condition for the restart September 2012 NRA Launch New Safety Standard is a crucial condition for the restart July 8 New Regulation Standards endorsed July 16- Assessment for restart 9 3. Safety assessment procedure and the restart Reactors under review Unit Utility Type / 10MWe No. of hearings* Date of Submission Commercial Operation Tomari 1/2 Hokkaido PWR/ /8/2013 6/22/1989, 4/12/1991 Tomari 3 Hokkaido PWR/ /8/ /22/2009 Ohi 3/4 Kansai PWR/ /8/ /18/1991, 2/2/1993 Takahama 3/4 Kansai PWR/ /8/2013 1/17/1985, 6/5/1985 Ikata 3 Shikoku PWR/ /8/ /15/1994 Sendai 1/2 Kyushu PWR/ /8/2013 7/4/1984, 11/28/1985 Genkai 3/4 Kyushu PWR/ /8/2013 3/18/1994, 7/25/1997 KK 6/7 Tokyo BWR/ /12/ /7/1996, 7/2/1997 Shimane 2 Chugoku BWR/ /25/2013 2/10/1989 Onagawa 2 Tohoku BWR/ /27/2013 7/28/1995 Hamaoka 4 Chubu BWR/ /14/2014 9/3/1993 Tokai Daini JAPC BWR/ /20/ /11/28 notes Suspected active faults - cleared Given priority in assessment Higashidori 1 Tohoku BWR/ /10/ /12/8 Suspected active faults Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority, (Japanese only) * As of June 18 10 3. Safety assessment procedure and the restart 3-3. Why does the safety assessment take so much time? (1/2) Need to adopt Principles of Good Regulation by US NRC Independence Openness Efficiency Clarity Reliability Factors essential to a smooth progress of the assessment Clear decision criteria; Distinction of the compulsory regulation and the recommendations with mutual discussion Ex1. fireproof cables vs cables covered with an approved flame retardant coating Ex2. filtered venting systems vs systems preventing overpressure of the CV Role of the hearings and the reviewing meetings Almost every day 7 times at the maximum Hearings Confirm the conditions, issues to be discussed Once or twice a week Review Meetings Review and discuss the results only -- Assess and judge 11 3. Safety assessment procedure and the restart 3-3. Why does the safety assessment take so much time? (2/2) The operator should be prepared for a single failure of the highest class safety equipment including containment vessel spray systems pipings, valves, pumps and so on. Sample: a discussion between Hokkaido Electric and NRA on the assessment of Tomari 3 The regulation on a malfunction due to a single failure does not necessarily apply to all high safety class equipment. Taking the toughness, tensile strength, and total reliability into account, we have judged that the containment vessel spray piping does not need to be doubled even though it is an MS-1 system. No, the operator should consider the principle of defense-in-depth at any cost. The exemption of the single failure assumption should not be adopted. Source: Meeting memo, the 60 th assessment meeting on the safety regulation, NRA, December 19, 2013 (Japanese only) We have confirmed that the reliability of the spray system is well above the criteria under the BDBE condition. When it comes to a matter of regulatory requirements, however, we accept the strong message from the authority to achieve higher resilience against severe accidents. Therefore, today, we decided to add a backup spray piping inside the containment vessel. Meanwhile, we will strongly request clarification regarding the extent of exemption from the single failure assumption. Source: Comment on the regulatory requirement on the design base of the single failure on static equipments, Hokkaido Electric Power Company, February 4, 4. Role of nuclear in Asian countries Energy policy and outlook 4-1. Primary energy demand & economic indicator in ASEAN+3 Due to the rapid economic growth, especially in developing countries, ASEAN+3 s share of the world GDP increased to 21% in ASEAN+3 s share of the world s total primary energy consumption in 2011 increased to 30% = _fold increase (Share : ) 3.8 billion toe (17%= 30%) 200 TPES 12 Trillion US$ (17%= 21%) GDP Population 2.2 Billion (33%= 30%) (Source) APEC Energy Database etc 13 4. Role of nuclear in Asian countries Energy policy and outlook 4-2. The 2 nd Basic Energy Plan in Republic of Korea Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOCIE) announced the 2 nd National Energy Basic Plan in January Energy Mix considers supply- demand and environmental harmony based on energy security, greenhouse gas reduction, industrial competitiveness and acceptance. Gear toward dispersed power sources from large scale power station 29% share of nuclear (by capacity) in 43 GW (+ 22 GW) capacity is necessary 11% share of renewables by 2035 Diversified supply sources of crude oil, Nuclear (GW) 160 natural gas, LPG Total Electricity (GW) 140 Expanding joint oil stock piling project 120 with oil producing countries 4. Role of nuclear in Asian countries Energy policy and outlook 4-3. Nuclear development plan in Viet Nam Vietnam National Energy Development Strategy up to 2020 and vision to 2050 Ratified on 28 February 2014 Ensuring national energy security: exploration and reservation of domestic resources Energy price with the market mechanism: eliminate exclusiveness and subsidization in the production of energy Investment in developing new and renewable energies, bio-energy and nuclear power Pursuing economical and effective energy utilization: encourage the application of new energy saving technology and equipment Protection of environment Based on the Resolution No. 41/2009/QH12, the first nuclear power project in Vietnam will be built in Ninh Thuan province and Vietnam Electricity (EVN) is nominated as the project investment owner. Nuclear Power Project Ninh Thuan 1, # 1, 1000MW Ninh Thuan 2, # 1, 1000MW Commissioning time (Year) 2020+(2-3) 2020+(2-3) Ninh Thuan 1, # 2, 1000MW Ninh Thuan 2, # 2, 1000MW 2021+(2-3) 2021+(2-3) NPP 3, # 1, 1000MW 2022 NPP 3, # 2, 1000MW 2023 NPP 4, # 1, 1000MW 2026 NPP 4, # 2, 1000MW 2027 NPP central 1,# 1, 1350MW 2028 NPP central 1,# 2, 1350MW 2030 Source: Vietnam Energy, Decision on Vietnam National Energy Development Strategy up to 2020 and vision to 2050, 28 February and-vision-to-2050.html 15 4. Role of nuclear in Asian countries Energy policy and outlook 4-4. Outlook in Asia electricity demand increase and the role of nuclear (1/2) Electricity demand in Asia will increase rapidly driven by the improvement of living standards. Electricity demand in China will expand 213% by 2040, and India will expand 476% during the same period. Energy saving and low carbon technologies would be highly welcome Mtoe 0.2billion toe ( 15%) China India Japan Korea Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia Phillipines Thailand Vietnam Singapore Hong Kong Other Asia Myanmar 13% 11% 54% Japan India China 7% 22% 49% billion toe 2040 Reference 1.4 billion toe +Advanced technology 1.2 billion toe Electricity demand increase in Asia by country Source: Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013, the Institute of Energy Economics Japan 16 4. Role of nuclear in Asian countries Energy policy and outlook 4-4. Outlook in Asia electricity demand increase and the role of nuclear (2/2) Aggressive development and deployment of advanced technologies in Asia enables to considerably reduce CO2 emissions and realize its peak by 2040s. GtCO CO2 Emissions Reduction by Technology (Asia) Source: Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013, the Institute of Energy Economics Japan Total 9.5Gt 37% reduction Energy Saving Energy saving 56% Biofuel Fuel Switching Wind, Solar, etc 44% Nuclear Fuel switching Adv.Tech. Reference MtCO2 Energy saving 5,296 56% Biofuel 161 2% Wind, Solar, etc 1,191 13% Nuclear 1,964 21% Fuel switching 848 9% 計 9, % 17 Köszönöm a figyelmet Thank you for your attention Merci pour votre attention Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit Tack för er uppmärksamhet 18
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