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No solar and wind power without gas backup

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Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development No solar and wind power without gas backup Anne Sjoerd Brouwer Problem setting Intermittent RES important component of low-carbon power systems,
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Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development No solar and wind power without gas backup Anne Sjoerd Brouwer Problem setting Intermittent RES important component of low-carbon power systems, but They have specific properties Affect the whole power system Operation Economics Goal: identify which technologies can complement ires in a low-carbon power system with High reliability (LOLP .1 day/year) Low emissions ( 96% reduction CO 2 emissions) Low costs Investment costs ( /kw) 2. Approach Two types of complementary options to ires 1. Affordable power generation Fossil-fuel fired power plants ires power generation (+curtailment) 2. Efficient system operation Electricity storage Interconnection capacity Demand response 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Storage capacity: 8 hours Electricity storage investment costs Year 215 Year 25-2% -39% -65% -69% Pumped hydro storage Compressed air storage NaS-battery Vanadium flow battery -71% Li-ion battery 2. Approach We simulated the 25 European power system Three scenarios evaluated ires: wind and solar PV RES 4% 6% 8% ires 22% 41% 59% Quantified system costs British Isles (BR) United Kingdom, Ireland France (FR) France BR FR GE IT SC Scandinavia (SC) Norway, Sweden, Denmark Germany & Benelux (GE) Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg IB Iberian Peninsula (IB) Spain, Portugal Italy & Alpine States (IT) Italy, Austria, Switzerland Gas Turbine 3. Results power generation Cheapest technology to generate low-carbon power? Generation option with the lowest LCOE - 7 /tco2 Higher fixed costs NGCC GT NGCC Natural Gas Natural NGCC-CCS Gas Combined Coal-CCS Combined Cycle Cycle with CCS Coal with CCS GT NGCC-CCS Higher operational costs PC-CCS Capacity factor (%) Total Installed Capacity (GW) Power generation (TWh/yr) 3. Results power generation Fossil capacity optimization: only natural gas capacity Combined cycle with CCS Gas turbines Existing Capacity (212) Installed capacity 17% RES (% ires) 4% RES (22% ires) 6% RES (41% ires) 8% RES (59% ires) % RES (% ires) Generation 4% RES (22% ires) 6% RES (41% ires) 8% RES (59% ires) Oil Coal Demand Response Gas Turbine NGCC NGCC+CCS Solar PV Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Pumped Hydro Geothermal Hydro Biothermal Nuclear Generation (GW) Electricity Price ( /MWh) 3. Results power generation NGCC-CCS generates power during the night in the summer Electricity storage could replace NGCCs in the summer, but Generation during week with minimum residual demand (6.4 GW) ma 17 jun di 18 jun wo 19 jun do 2 jun vr 21 jun za 22 jun zo 23 jun Nuclear Geothermal Wind Offshore Wind Onshore Hydro Solar PV NGCC-CCS NGCC Biothermal Pumped Hydro Gas Turbine Demand Response Electricity Price (LWA) Generation (GW) Electricity Price ( /MWh) 3. Results power generation NGCC-CCS baseload generation during winter time is very costly to replace by (seasonal) electricity storage Gas turbines supply peak demand 5 Generation during week with maximum residual demand (388 GW) Mon 14 Dec Tue 15 Dec Wed 16 Dec Thu 17 Dec Fri 18 Dec Sat 19 Dec Sun 2 Dec Nuclear Geothermal Wind Offshore Wind Onshore Hydro Solar PV NGCC-CCS NGCC Biothermal Pumped Hydro Gas Turbine Demand Response Electricity Price (LWA) Annual system costs (bn /yr) Electricity cost or price ( /MWh) 3. Results power generation Natural gas or intermittent RES? Intermittent renewables increase total system costs % RES (% ires) 4% RES (22% ires) Total system costs per scenario 6% RES (41% ires) 8% RES (59% ires) Operational Costs (bn /yr) Fuel Costs (bn /yr) FO&M Costs (bn /yr) Invest DR (bn /yr) Invest NGCC/GT (bn /yr) Invest Solar PV (bn /yr) Invest Wind (bn /yr) Invest NGCC-CCS (bn /yr) Fixed scenario costs (bn /yr) Avg. electricity price ( /MWh) Avg. generation cost ( /MWh) 3. Results system operation Which options can decrease system costs by improving system efficiency? More efficient use of power plants Less curtailment Demand response no-regret option tal System Costs ( bn/y) Total System Costs ( bn/y) 3. Results system operation Interconnects reduce costs up to a sweet spot Increased storage deployment does not lower costs Effect of CAES and Interconnection Capacity on Total System Costs Effect of CAES and Interconnection 8% Capacity on Total RES System Costs 95 GW CAES GW CAES 95 GW CAES 95 GW CAES GW CAES GW CAES 95 GW CAES 95 GW CAES GW CAES Current (37 GW) GW CAES Min (86 GW) Low Med* (123 GW) (189 GW) Interconnection Capacity High (257 GW) 6% RES 4% RES Max (349 GW) 95 GW CAES 47 GW CAES 24 GW CAES 5 GW CAES GW CAES 6% RES, 95 GW CA 6% RES, 47 GW CA 6% RES, 24 GW CA 6% RES, 5 GW CA 6% RES, GW CA 4. Conclusion Affordable power systems with ires include: Natural-gas fired generation Demand response & interconnections More expensive options: High penetration of intermittent RES Electricity storage Thank you for your attention Any questions? Anne Sjoerd Brouwer Machteld van den Broek Anne Sjoerd Brouwer, Machteld van den Broek, William Zappa, Wim C. Turkenburg, André Faaij. Least-cost options for integrating intermittent renewables in low-carbon power systems Currently under submission 6. Supplementary slides Key input parameters /GJ Coal Natural gas Uranium Fuel price Biomass /tco 2 Transport and storage CO 2 costs 13.5 France TWh/yr Britain Scandinavia Germany+ Iberian pen. Italy+ Load Generator Input parameters of generation technologies Investment (TCR, /kw) Fixed O&M ( /kw/yr) Variable O&M ( /MWh) Efficiency Nuclear % Remarks PC-CCS % 9% CO 2 capture NGCC-CCS % 9% CO 2 capture NGCC % Biothermal % 1% biomass fired Geothermal Hydro Wind onshore CF: 22-26% Wind offshore CF: 4-43% Solar PV 7 17 CF: 11-21% Gas turbine % Pumped hydro % 8% round trip η Demand resp % 1-2 hrs of storage
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