Mobile

Optimization of the cropping pattern in Saudi Arabia using a mathematical programming sector model

Description
Opimizaion of he cropping paern in Saudi Arabia using a mahemaical programming secor model Ahmed M. Alabdulkader 1, Ahmed I. Al-Amoud 2, Fawzi S. Awad 2 1 King Abdulaziz Ci for Science and Technolog, Life
Categories
Published
of 5
All materials on our website are shared by users. If you have any questions about copyright issues, please report us to resolve them. We are always happy to assist you.
Related Documents
Share
Transcript
Opimizaion of he cropping paern in Saudi Arabia using a mahemaical programming secor model Ahmed M. Alabdulkader 1, Ahmed I. Al-Amoud 2, Fawzi S. Awad 2 1 King Abdulaziz Ci for Science and Technolog, Life Sciences and Environmen Secor, Riadh, Saudi Arabia 2 King Saud Universi, College of Food and Agriculural Sciences, Riadh, Saudi Arabia Absrac: A mahemaical secor model has been formulaed o opimize he cropping paern in Saudi Arabia aiming a maximizing he ne annual reurn of he agriculural secor in Saudi Arabia and ensuring he efficien allocaion of he scarce waer resources and arable land among he compeing crops. The resuls showed he poenial for Saudi Arabia o opimize is cropping paern and o generae an esimaed ne reurn equivalen o abou 2.42 billion US$ per ear. The opimized cropping paern in Saudi Arabia has been coupled wih abou 53% saving in he waer use and abou 48% reducion in he arable land use compared o he base-ear cropping paern. Comparable weighs was given o differen crop groups b allocaing abou 48.4%, 35.4%, 13.1%, and 3.2% o grow cereals, fruis, forages, and vegeables, respecivel. These findings were in line wih he naional sraeg o raionalize he culivaion of waer-inensive crops in favour of highl waer-efficien crops. Ke words: maximum ne reurn, efficien waer allocaion, LINGO opimizer modelling program Agriculural secor is a ke driver in he world-wide economic and social developmen. I plas a subsanial role in achieving, among oher, food securi, economic diversificaion, pover eradicaion, and human welfare. Is role is highl emphasized while he inernaional communi, in paricular developing counries, is sruggling o cope wih he impacs of he climae change and he implemenaion of response measures in a susainable manner. The adusmen of planing daes and crop varie, and crop re-allocaion are among he seleced planned adapaion acions in he agriculural secor (IPCC 2007). The vulnerabili of he agriculural secor o climae changes has driven Saudi Arabia o se up programs and policies heading owards maximizing he uilizaion of is limied resources, mainl, he irrigaion waer suppl and arable land o produce high value crops such as fruis and vegeables. The 8h Developmen Plan of Saudi Arabia (Minisr of Econom and Planning 2004) emphasized he imporance of raionalizing he culivaion of waerinensive crops, such as cereals and fodder, in favour of highl waer-efficien crops, such as fruis and vegeables. This research paper underlines some of he promising deliverables of a five-ear research proec (Al- Amoud e al., 2010) funded b he King Abdulaziz Ci for Science and Technolog Saudi Arabia (hp://www.kacs.edu.sa), o opimize he cropping paern in Saudi Arabia using a mahemaical secor model ha would maximize he ne annual reurn of he agriculural secor in Saudi Arabia and o ensure he efficien allocaion of he scarce waer resources and arable land among he compeing crops. Various modelling approaches have been applied o opimize he cropping paern worldwide including he linear and nonlinear opimizaion models (Haouari and Azaiez 2001; Singh e al. 2001; Monazar and Rahimikob 2008; Kaur e al. 2010); deerminisic linear programming and chance-consrained linear programming models (Sehi e al. 2006), he ineracive fuzz muli-obecive opimizaion approach (Zhou a al. 2007), he goal program approach (Vivekanadan e al. 2009), he muli-obecive fracional goal programming approach (Fasakhodi e al. 2010), and he geneic algorihm model (Karamouz e al. 2010). MATERIALS AND METHODS Foureen cash crops grown in nine maor croppingproducion regions (sud regions) in Saudi Arabia were considered o opimize he cropping paern in accordance wih he regional comparaive advanage. The considered crops covered differen crop groups, namel, forage including alfalfa and roadus grass; 56 Agric. Econ. Czech, 58, 2012 (2): 56 60 cereals including whea, sorghum, mille, and sesame; vegeables including omaoes, poaoes; and fruis including daes, melons, olives, orange, mango and lemon. The marke srucure was visualized in his sud as having wo suppl regions. Boh regions compee o saisf he naional demand of he given commodi. These suppl regions represen: (i) suppl from he maor cropping-producion regions or sud regions, and (ii) suppl from he ouside sud regions or he res of he naion. A he given, suppl from sud regions would represen he difference beween he quani demanded and he quani supplied from he ouside sud regions. A mahemaical secor model has been formulaed o achieve he ulimae obecive of his sud using he LINGO opimizer modelling program (2008), popular and reliable sofware used for solving opimizaion models. The mahemaical formulaion of he formulaed secor model comprised four ke componens: obecive funcion, resource consrains, naional commodi balance and naional rade balance. The obecive funcion of he secor model was o deermine he opimal one-ear cropping paern in accordance wih he comparaive advanage in he maor cropping-producion regions in Saudi Arabia. The model maximized he ne annual reurn subec o he limied waer suppl and arable land, given he markeing and rade balance consrains. Z J 1 R f ( W ) C X I E for all, r (1) r 1 Z = ne economic reurn, in erms of US $ per ear f ( W ) = welfare funcion which measures he area under he excess demand equaion for h crop in ear C = average cos for he h crop in r h sud region, in erms of US $ per on X = average ield for h crop in r h sud region, in erms of ons per hecare I = Ne naional impors for h crop in ear, in erms of ons E = Ne naional expors for h crop in ear, in erms of ons J = 1, 2, 3,, 13 crops R = 1, 2, 3,, 9 sud areas The resource consrains ensured ha he amoun of he limied resources used in he producion process did no exceed he available levels of resources. Two ke resource consrains were applied in he model: waer suppl and arable land. Waer suppl consrain was presened in wo forms: a monhl waer suppl and an annual waer suppl. The monhl waer suppl was used o overcome he seasonali of producion and o ensure ha he irrigaion waer requiremens of all crops in he sud areas did no exceed he available monhl waer suppl, while he annual waer suppl consrain ensured ha he annual irrigaion waer requiremens for he considered economic crops in he sud areas did no exceed a specific quani of waer annuall. The mahemaical illusraion of he resource consrains was presened as follows: a X b for all i, r (2) i w ir a X w for all r (3) r a i = inpu-oupu coefficiens ha saes he amoun of i h resources required o produce one hecare of h crop in r h sud region in ime X = annual ield for h crop in r h sud region in erms of on per hecare b ir = maximum amoun of i h resource available in r h sud region in ime a w = irrigaion waer requiremens (w) for h crop in r h sud region in ear w = maximum waer suppl in ear in r h sud region r I = irrigaion waer requiremen, and arable lands T = 1, 2, 3, 12 monhs For he given crop, he naional commodi balance comprised hree ke elemens. These were he average suppl in he sud areas ( GS ), he ne naional impor ( NI ) or he ne naional expor ( NE ), and he excess naional demand ( Ed ). The naional commodi balance for he ne-impored crops aimed a ensuring ha he sum of he sud areas supplies and he ne naional impor were greaer han or equal o he excess naional demand. On he oher hand, he naional commodi balance for he ne-expored crops aimed a ensuring ha he sum of he regional supplies was greaer han or equal o he excess demand plus he ne naional expors for he given crop. The naional commodi balance was illusraed mahemaicall for he ne-impored crops and for he ne-exporing crops, respecivel, as follows: Ed NI GS 0 (4) Ed NE GS 0 (5) Ed = excess naional demand for he h crop in ear NI = ne naional impors for he h crop in ear GS = average producion for he h crop in ear Ed = excess naional demand for exporing crops in dn ear NE dn = ne naional expors for exporing crops (d) in ear GS dr = average producion of exporing crops (d) in ear Agric. Econ. Czech, 58, 2012 (2): The naional rade balance ensured ha he ne naional impor ( NI ) for he given crop did no exceed a maximum limi for he ne naional impors ( I ) annuall, and he ne naional expor ( NE ) for he given crop did no exceed a maximum limi for he ne naional expors ( E ) annuall. The naional rade balance could be illusraed mahemaicall as follows: NI I (6) NE E (7) NI = ne naional impors for h crop in ear I = maximum limis for ne naional impors for h crop in ear NE = ne naional expors for h crop in ear E = maximum limis for ne naional expors for h crop in ear The ke inpu-oupu coefficiens for he mahemaical secor model include he average values of he following: ield, marke, producion cos, CIF and FOB s, crop waer requiremens and naional demand for he considered cash crops. More han 160 farms were field-surveed and some saisical earbooks were invesigaed o calculae he required inpu-oupu coefficiens. Table 1 shows he inpu-oupu coefficiens for he considered cash crops in Saudi Arabia. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Opimizing he cropping paern of he considered crops in Saudi Arabia in accordance wih he regional comparaive advanage using he mahemaical secor model showed he grea poenial of Saudi Arabia o resrucure is cropping paern in accordance wih is limied waer resources and arable land and o generae a high ne annual reurn equivalen o abou 2.42 billion US$/ear. The opimized cropping paerns would provide Saudi Arabia wih he opporuni o reduce he cropping areas b abou 48%, from abou 704 housand hecares o abou 364 housand hecares, and he waer suppl b abou 53%, from 8.84 million cubic meers a ear o abou 4.12 million cubic meers a ear. As shown in Figure 1, he opimized cropping paerns pu comparable weighs o differen crop Table 1. Mahemaical programming secor model inpu-oupu coefficiens in Saudi Arabia Crops ield marke producion coss naional demand Impor (CIF) Expor (FOB) waer requiremens* (on/ha) (US $/on) (on/ear) (US $/on) (1000 cm/ha) Forage alfalfa roadus na na Cereals whea sorghum mille sesame Vegeables poaoes omaoes Fruis daes melon olives orange mango lemon Sources: calculaed from field surve colleced daa (2007), Minisr of Agriculure (2007), Minisr of Agriculure official websie Food and Agriculure Organizaion *Al-Amoud e al. (2010) 58 Agric. Econ. Czech, 58, 2012 (2): 56 60 Forage 13.1% Forage 16.4% Vegeables 3.2% Fruis 35.4% Cereals 48.4% Vegeables 2.8% Fruis 19.7% Cereals 61.2% Figure 1. Opimized cropping paern in Saudi Arabia using secor model groups b allocaing abou 48.4%, 35.4%, 13.1%, and 3.2% o grow cereals, fruis, forages, and vegeables, respecivel, while he base-ear cropping paerns, which represen he average cropping areas in Saudi Arabia during , placed a higher weigh o cereals b allocaing more han 61.2% from he cropping areas o cereals and 19.7% o fruis, 16.4% o forages, and 2.8% o vegeables, as shown in Figure 2. These findings were in line wih he naional sraeg o raionalize he culivaion of waer-inensive crops, such as cereals and fodder, in favour of highl waer-efficien crops, such as fruis and vegeables. Figure 2. Base-ear cropping paern represening he average cropping areas in Saudi Arabia during In erms of he allocaed cropping area, he opimized cropping paern was given he prioriies from among he foureen considered cash crops o grow whea, daes and alfalfa, respecivel, wih an allocaed area equivalen o abou 89% of he oal cropping area in Saudi Arabia. The allocaed cropping area was differen in he base ear, he cropping paern giving he priori o whea, sorghum, daes, and alfalfa wih a proximi allocaed area equivalen o abou 93% of he oal cropping area. Table 2 compared he opimized cropping paern versus he base ear cropping paern for each considered crop in Saudi Arabia. Table 2. Opimized cropping paern Vs. Base ear cropping paern in Saudi Arabia Crops Base-ear cropping area Relaive imporance of base ear cropping area a a naional level Opimized cropping area Relaive imporance of opimized cropping area a a naional level (1000 ha) (%) (1000 ha) (%) Whea Sorghum Daes Alfalfa Melon Tomaoes Poaoes Roadus Mille Sesame Orange Mango Lemon Olives Toal Agric. Econ. Czech, 58, 2012 (2): CONCLUSIONS Saudi Arabia is among he mos vulnerable counries regarding he impac of he climae change and he impac of he implemenaion of response measures. Opimizing he cropping paern of he cash crops in accordance wih he comparaive advanage in he maor crop producion regions in Saudi Arabia would scale up he capabili o adap o climae change and is impacs and i would demonsrae wha crops and where o grow, given he limied naural resources, and o bridge he gap beween he naional demand and suppl hrough imporing from he world marke. The findings of his research proec are significan and will be of a grea ineres no onl o he researchers working in he field, bu he will also appeal o he decision makers and o a broader public. Acknowledgmen The auhors of his sud are hankful o he King Abdulaziz Ci for Science and Technolog (KACST) Saudi Arabia for is enormous financial funding and suppor. References Al-Amoud A.I., Awad F.S., Alabdulkader A.M., Alazba A.A., Al-Hamed S.A., Al-Tokhais A.S., Basahi J.M., Al-Moshaili A.M., Al-Dakheel Y.Y. (2010): Waer requiremens for economical crops in Saudi Arabia (in Arabic). King Abdulaziz Ci for Science and Technolog. Saudi Arabia. Fasakhodi A., Seed H. Nour., Amini M. (2010): Waer resources susainabili and opimal cropping paern in farming ssems; a muli-obecive fracional goal programming approach. Waer Resource Manage, 24: ; DOI /s z Food and Agriculure Organizaion. Available a www. fao.org Haouari M., Azaiez M.N. (2001): Opimal cropping paerns under waer deficis. European Journal of Operaional Research, 130: IPCC (2007): Climae change 2007: Snhesis Repo. In: Pachauri R. K Reisinger A. (eds.): Conribuion of Working Groups I, II, and III o he Forh Assessmen Repor of he Inergovernmenal Panel on Climae Change. IPCC, Geneva, Swizerland. Karamouz M., Zahraie B., Kerachian R., Eslami A. (2010): Crop paern and conuncive use managemen: A case sud. Irrigaion and Drainage, 59: Kaur B., Sidhu R.S., Kamal V. (2010): Opimal crop plans for susainable waer use in Punab. Agriculural Economics Research Review, 23: LINGO Modeling Language and Opimizer (2008): Release LINDO Ssems Inc., Chicago. Minisr of Agriculure (2007): Agriculural Saisical Year Book. Saudi Arabia. Minisr of Agriculure Saudi Arabia (2007): Available a Minisr of Econom and Planning (2004): The Eighh Developmen Plan ( ). Saudi Arabia. Monazar A., Rahimikob A. (2008): Opimal waer producivi of irrigaion neworks in arid and semi-arid regions. Irrigaion and Drainage, 57: Sehi L.N., Panda S.N., Naak M.K. (2006): Opimal crop planning and waer resources allocaion in a coasal groundwaer basin, Orissa, India. Agriculural Waer Managemen, 83: Singh D.K., Jaiswalb C.S., Redda K.S., Singha R.M., Bhandarkar D.M. (2001): Opimal cropping paern in a canal command area. Agriculural Waer Managemen, 50: 1 8. Vivekanandan N., Viswanahan K., Saneev Gupa (2009): Opimizaion of cropping paern using goal programming approach. OPSEARCH, 46: Zhou H., Hui P., Chi Z. (2007): An ineracive fuzz muliobecive opimizaion approach for crop planning and waer resources allocaion. In: Bio-Inspired Compuaional Inelligence and Applicaions, Lecure Noes in Compuer Science, 4688: , Springer, Berlin- Heidelberg. Arrived on 10 h Januar 2011 Conac address: Ahmed M. Alabdulkader, King Abdulaziz Ci for Science and Technolog, Life Sciences and Environmen Secor, P. O. Box 6086, Riadh 11442, Saudi Arabia 60 Agric. Econ. Czech, 58, 2012 (2): 56 60
Search
Related Search
We Need Your Support
Thank you for visiting our website and your interest in our free products and services. We are nonprofit website to share and download documents. To the running of this website, we need your help to support us.

Thanks to everyone for your continued support.

No, Thanks