Volume 31, Issue 1 August 7-September 1, 2016 Exclusive NFL & College Preseason Preview! PUT YOUR GAME FACE ON: 2016 FOOTBALL IS HERE! 93% AWESOME ANGLE INSIDE! Tremendous NFL Preseason Trends 2016 College
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Volume 31, Issue 1 August 7-September 1, 2016 Exclusive NFL & College Preseason Preview! PUT YOUR GAME FACE ON: 2016 FOOTBALL IS HERE! 93% AWESOME ANGLE INSIDE! Tremendous NFL Preseason Trends 2016 College and NFL Top 10 ATS Teams NFL Preseason QB Rotations Best Bets and Key Plays NFL Preseason Over/Unders 2016 NFL Preseason Schedule GET SMART GET PLAYBOOK GET EVERY EDGE IMAGINABLE COPYRIGHT NOTICE - All materials in this newsletter are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, rebroadcast, displayed, or otherwise published without the prior written permission of Playbook. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice, nor may you offer for sale or resale the material included herein. Marc Lawrence's BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW NFL PRESEASON COACHING RECORDS A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping Welcome to the 2016 preseason edition of the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter. Whether you are a football fundamentalist, a technical buff or a stats lover, we have it all for you under one cover in the PLAYBOOK, where each week through the Super Bowl we help you get every edge imaginable! If past history were all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians. Those words of wisdom come from famous investor Warren Buffett the point being you need to understand the present, too. And that s what the weekly PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter does. It examines the past and moves it forward to the present. Think of the PLAYBOOK as your value investor, so don t make a move without it this season. In each issue I'll share with you a personal BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW handicapping article as I reveal an insider's approach to the art of football handicapping. Along with Best Bets, Awesome Angles, Tremendous Trends and NFL Over/Under Records, the PLAYBOOK.COM WISE GUYS CONTEST and a complete schedule featuring opening lines, we've got you covered. Also, be sure to check PLAYBOOK's 2-Minute Handicap featuring a quick-read into key stats and trends on the weekly football card plus the Incredible Stat Of the Week. It's no wonder whenever the Wise Guys in Vegas speak of PLAYBOOK, they say it's Where The Smart Money Is. Take the time to ensure your success this football season by subscribing to the 2016 PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter. It s never been easier: you can sign up online at or call Toll-Free for instant service at PLAYBOOK. You can also get EVERY ACTIVE COACH'S ATS RECORD inside the 2016 PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL PREVIEW GUIDE magazine (FREE with a full-season subscription to the 2016 PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER). Meanwhile, check out our NFL preseason Game Writeups on page 8 of this special kickoff edition. And later, make sure you head over to the BETTING TOOLS section at for even more good stuff. We hope you like what you see and decide to join us this year for The Best Football Newsletter On The Planet. Remember, don't make a move without your PLAYBOOK, or your personal copy of the 2016 PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL PREVIEW GUIDE! I f you re looking to make a quick score before the start of the 2016 NFL season then look no further than the coaches and their preseason tendencies. It appears coaches like Jason Garrett, Hue Jackson and Chuck Pagano don t appear to put much stock in exhibition play, as evidenced by their collective SU and collective ATS career marks during the preseason. The same, however, cannot be said for Pete Carroll, John Harbaugh and Mike Zimmer who together are SU and ATS throughout the preseason. Then there s Mike McCarthy and Bill O Brien, the epitomes of consistency throughout their NFL career during the preseason, sporting and 4-4 SU, and ATS and 4-4 ATS marks, respectively. And if you re like Victor King, and OVER/UNDER Totals are your cup of tea, take a look at the defensive priorities of Bill O Brien and Gus Bradley who have played 4-16 to the UNDER combined in their preseason games, while on the other side of the coin Chip Kelly and Gary Kubiak seem more interested in finetuning their offenses, going OVER the total collectively in their exhibition games. Please Note: O/U records are since O/U records with an asterisk (*) represent the coaches totals performance in preseason games since 1999 only. All other results are as an NFL head coach throughout his career. All Best / Worst Role results listed below are ATS, unless noted otherwise. With that we present another PLAYBOOK exclusive, the 2016 NFL Preseason Coaches records. Enjoy TEAM/COACH SU ATS O/U BEST/WORST ROLE AZ Bruce Arians away ATL Dan Quinn SU home / 0-2 SU away BAL - John Harbaugh away vs.000 foe BUF Rex Ryan Game One CAR - Ron Rivera SUATS off SU fav loss CHI John Fox vs opp off SU fav loss CIN - Marvin Lewis SUATS fav 3 pts CLE Hue Jackson vs non-winning foes DAL - Jason Garrett SUATS off SUATS win DEN Gary Kubiak vs opp off win 10 pts DET - Jim Caldwell SUATS O/U line 34 pts GB - Mike McCarthy SUATS off SU DD loss HOU Bill O Brien UNDER IND Chuck Pagano SUATS H vs foe/win 17 JAC Gus Bradley SUATS off DD loss KC - Andy Reid * 5-0 dog 4 pts LAR - Jeff Fisher * 6-0 dog vs opp off SUATS win MIN Mike Zimmer SUATS fav 5 pts NE - Bill Belichick * 7-0 H vs opp off BB SU losses NO Sean Payton off win vs foe off loss NYJ Todd Bowles SUATS O/U 39 pts OAK Jack Del Rio dog off SUATS win PIT - Mike Tomlin away off loss SD Mike McCoy dog 5 pts SF Chip Kelly dog SEA - Pete Carroll * 12-1 vs opp off win 3 pts WAS - Jay Gruden SUATS foe off DD win TABLE OF CONTENTS NFL Preseason Coaching Records / Awesome Angle of the Month NFL Preseason 2-Minute Handicap / Incredible Stat For August NFL Preseason Super Systems / Wise Guys Contest / Smart Box NFL Preseason Data / NFL Preseason QB Rotations NFL Preseason Report / 2016 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings NFL Preseason 5, 4, 3 Best Bets and Key Plays MIDWEEK ALERT Final 2015 College and NFL Stat Rankings The Experts Say: Handicappers 2016 Preview Marc Lawrence s 2016 College & NFL Top 10 ATS Teams Marc Lawrence s 2016 College & NFL Super Systems Victor King s NFL Preseason Over/Unders NFL TOTALS TIPSHEET 2016 NFL Preseason Schedule / Early College Football Writeup AWESOME ANGLE OF THE MONTH PLAY AGAINST any NFL preseason road favorite of 3 or more points if they were a dog of 3 or more points in their last game and are facing a foe that has won at least one preseason game this year. BAD ROAD TRIP ATS W-L Record Since 1984: 13-1 (93%) View Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week in each issue of the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter! page 2 2-MINUTE HANDICAP FOR A COMPLETE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP OF EVERY GAME ON TODAY'S CARD, VISIT ATS: Against The Spread A: Away D: Dog F: Favorite H: Home O/U: Over/Under R: Road Rev: Revenge SU: Straight-Up SUATS: Straight-Up & Against The Spread 2016 NFL PRESEASON GAMES All results pertain to preseason only and are most recent ATS - Against The Spread - unless noted otherwise (NOTE: * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation and/or line in this game. Dual results Straight-Up and Against The Spread are separated with a / ). Content contained in this report is exclusive published private property of PLAYBOOK, PLAYBOOK.COM and PLAYBOOKCUBE, and may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher. TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS WEEK ONE Thursday, August 11 Tampa Bay 0-3 SUATS Game One 2-8 SUATS vs NFC East PHILADELPHIA 4-0 SUATS vs NFC South Home One New Orleans 7-1 A vs AFC East 4-1 SUATS Game One NEW ENGLAND Thursdays 0-4 UNDER Thursdays Denver Detroit Cleveland Oakland Houston SAN FRAN SERIES: 3-0 SUATS A 4-0 SUATS A Thursdays SERIES: Host 0-4 SUATS H vs AFC West Friday, August A Fridays 3-0 SUATS Game One ATS Game One 2-7 SUATS vs NFC North SERIES: 3-0 SUATS OVER Fridays vs AFC North 4-0 OVER home L2Y 0-3 SUATS Away One 1-7 A w/ revenge SERIES: 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS 4-1 vs revenge Sunday, August Game One 8-2 Away One 9-3 Saturdays 0-3 SUATS Game One 1-3 SUATS vs AFC South WEEK TWO Thursday, August 18 Cincinnati Miami Ny Giants 1-3 SUATS vs NFC North 5-1 OVER Game Two ATS Thursdays 4-1 SUATS H vs AFC North Friday, August 19 SERIES: OVER 9-1 ATS Game Two 0-6 SUATS Game Two 1-5 Home One Saturday, August 20 SERIES: 3-0 SUATS 8-3 SUATS Game Two 3-0 SU Game Two 0-4 SUATS H off H Baltimore 6-2 Away One 5-2 SUATS Saturdays INDIANAPOLIS 1-11 Home One 1-4 UNDER vs AFC North Tampa Bay 2-6 SUATS vs AFC South 1-3 UNDER Away Two JACKSONVILLE SERIES: 8-1 ATS 4-1 SUATS vs NFC South INCREDIBLE STAT FOR AUGUST The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-21 ATS in their last 22 preseason games when off a win and facing an opponent off a loss. Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter! WEEK THREE Friday, August 26 Pittsburgh 0-4 vs NFC South Away One NEW ORLEANS 7-2 SUATS Game Three 5-2 SUATS Home One Detroit Ny Giants NY JETS Tennessee Los Angeles San Diego Saturday, August SUATS A Game Three 4-15 ATS A Saturdays SERIES: 3-1 SUATS 4-1 OVER Game Three ATS Game Three vs AFC East 2-4 SUATS Home Two 3-0 OVER Game Three 1-7 vs AFC West 0-3 UNDER A off BB H SERIES: 4-1 OVER 1-7 SUATS Game Three 4-13 ATS A Saturdays 6-2 OVER Away One SERIES: 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS 0-5 Home Two Sunday, August 28 SERIES: vs NFC North 6-2 SUATS Home One 6-1 OVER H off BB A WEEK FOUR Thursday, September 1 Washington TAMPA BAY Pittsburgh Green Bay KANSAS CITY Houston Chicago Los Angeles Denver San Francisco SAN DIEGO Seattle SERIES: 5-1 SUATS 4-0 SUATS A Thursdays 0-3 SUATS H Game Four 1-8 SUATS H vs NFC East *0-4 vs NFC South 0-3 SUATS Away Two SERIES: 4-0 *5-0 vs AFC North 4-0 Game Four *5-1 SUATS Thursdays 1-4 Game Five 0-2 SUATS vs NFC North 1-6 favored Game Four SERIES: SU and ATS Thursdays 0-3 UNDER Home Two 1-5 UNDER Game Four 8-3 Away Two 1-3 SUATS vs AFC North *0-3 SUATS Thursdays *1-5 UNDER Thursdays 0-3 Game Four 0-3 SUATS vs NFC North 5-1 SUATS Game Four 5-2 OVER Game Four 6-2 A Game Four 1-4 UNDER Away Two SERIES: 1-6 SUATS H 0-4 SUATS Home Two SERIES: ATS 3-0 SUATS A Game Four. 1-5 SU and H vs NFC West Game Four SERIES: 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS *22-4 vs AFC West 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS Game Four 2-6 Home Two Marc Lawrence s award-winning football selections are available all season long at: page 3 NFL PRESEASON SUPER SYSTEMS NFL PRESEASON SUPER SYSTEMS WHICH HAVE WON 75% OR MORE ATS Below are three NFL PRESEASON Super System plays along with their Win-Loss records in games since Play accordingly and, remember, NEVER FORCE A PLAY. 1. PLAY AGAINST any home favorite of 6 or more points off one-win exact if that win was by 10 or more points. ATS W-L RECORD: 20-5 (80%) 2. PLAY AGAINST any Game Two favorite of 4 points off a SUATS win versus an opponent off a SU loss. ATS W-L RECORD: (80%) 3. PLAY ON any 0-2 SU Game Three away favorite or dog of 2 points. ATS W-L RECORD: 22-5 (81%) 44-0 SUPER SYSTEM ALERT! Just like the plays contained each week throughout the season in Marc s famous PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB, every one of the aforementioned SUPER SYSTEMS has subsets that are 100% perfect, having combined to go 44-0 ATS! You can find these subsets on the website simply by clicking on the Angles, Systems and Trends link inside the BETTING TOOLS section of the site! 2016 WISE GUYS CONTEST Now in its 31st year, the WISE GUYS CONTEST is a $10,000 winners-take-all contest. The TOP THREE finishers, the BEST BET champion and the FINAL 4-WEEK winner will take home the money, with each winning pick printed in the PLAYBOOK Newsletter carrying a value of one point, all winning DOUBLE PLAYS worth two points, and a one-time TOP PLAY OF THE YEAR (noted with an asterisk) worth three points. The designated DOUBLE PLAY BEST BET PICKS can be purchased every Friday at the Playbook Store ( for only $10 a week, or FREE if you re a PLAYBOOK.COM VIP ALL ACCESS MEMBER! All selections are graded against the lines posted after 1:00 PM Mondays on the WISE GUYS CONTEST page at Congratulations to 2015 Champion Stan Lisowski. Remember, you can follow the selections of each week s Top 20 contestants, along with notable pros like: Billy The Kid, Brad Diamond, Brad Powers, California Sports, Cincinnati Kid, Doc s Sports, Fairway Jay, Hurricane Bill, James Patrick, JB Sports, JH-Sportsline, Jim Feist, Joe Nelson, Ken Thomson, Marc Lawrence, Mike Muzyka, Mr. East, Norm Hitzges, Okie Sports, Richard Witt, Rob Vinciletti, Robbie Gainous, Robert Ferringo, Rocketman Sports, Ross Benjamin, Scott Landau, Special K Sports, Stan Lisowski, Statfox Dave, Steve Merril, Stormin Norman, Victor King, TD Tony and more every week in the 2016 PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter! P L A Y B O O K. C O M A $10,000 WINNERS-TAKE-ALL BEST BET CONTEST 2015 WISE GUYS TOP FINISHERS CONTESTANT W-L/BEST BETS PTS 1. Stan Lisowski / * Steve Merril / * T3. Brad Powers / * T3. California Sports / * T3. Ross Benjamin / * T6. Brad Diamond / * T6. Cincinnati Kid / * Hurricane Bill / * ALL ATS TIES OMITTED / * W-L RESULT FOR 3 PICK Best Bet Champion 2-Way Tie: Cincinnati Kid and Stan Lisowski (29 pts) Final 4-Week Champion 3-Way Tie: Cincinnati Kid, Stan Lisowski, TD Tony (11 pts) SMART BOX DO IT TO ME ONE MORE TIME Sometimes the price you re asked to pay for success turns out to be a bargain. And in today s economy, we ll take all the bargains we can find. Take the case of NFL teams that have just enjoyed winning back-to-back home games during the preseason. One might think these teams are primed for a letdown. However, as one of our favorite football analysts, Lee Corso, would say, Not so fast, my friend! That s because teams in this role are a solid ATS (3-0 last season) when taking to the road off a pair of home victories in the preseason since Better yet, send them away off a doubledigit win and they re a ATS winning proposition. Dress these same guys up as dogs and they respond like a pack of hungry canines, going ATS. Incidentally, there is also a 15-0 ATS PERFECT SUBSET contained inside this SMART BOX situation that occurs whenever our qualifying team failed to cover their previous home victory by 15 or more points. Here is a list of the eleven NFL teams that will take to the road off back-to-back home games this preseason: 8/26 New England at Carolina, Pittsburgh at New Orleans and Green Bay at San Francisco; 8/27 Buffalo at Washington, Tennessee at Oakland and St. Louis at Denver; 9/1 Indianapolis at Cincinnati, Washington at Tampa Bay, Houston at Dallas, Denver at Arizona and Seattle at Oakland. Editor s Note: the 15-0 ATS subset contained inside this study is similar to the same subsets members of Marc s PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB enjoy during the regular season (see page 11 for more details on the PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB). You can log on to the PLAYBOOK. COM website, or call our office toll-free for no obligation information on the PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB at PLAYBOOK. page 4 NFL PRESEASON DATA Ø TEAM FAV & DOG ROLES S /1990 COACH & TEAM PRESEASON ATS DATA S /1983 TEAM FAV DOG MOST RECENT PRESEASON TRENDS ALL ATS UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED Arizona Atlanta Baltimore Buffalo Carolina Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Dallas Denver Detroit Green Bay Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Kansas City Los Angeles Miami Minnesota New England New Orleans NY Giants NY Jets Oakland Philadelphia Pittsburgh San Diego San Francisco Seattle Tampa Bay Tennessee Washington COACH AND TEAM ATS PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN OF NFL TEAMS IN THE PRESEASON as dogs L3Y, 9-2 off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win, 1-10 as HF s 4 pts, 1-6 after score 10 pts 10-1 off SU dog win vs opp off SU loss, 6-1 as RF s, 0-5 as favs vs.500 opp, 1-5 after score 28 pts 9-1 away off DD ATS loss, 9-3 as dogs 4 pts under Harbaugh, 0-6 as favs vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 2-8 aft score 28 pts 4-1 vs .500 opp off ATS win, 0-8 home vs opp w/ revenge, 0-7 off BB SU wins, 1-9 vs.600 opp 8-1 off SU dog win, 6-1 as dogs after score 10 pts, 0-5 vs opp w/ revenge off SU fav loss, 1-6 as favs off BB SU losses 9-1 as dogs w/ revenge off SU loss, 7-1 as favs off SU dog win, 0-6 as favs off BB SU losses, 0-5 home after score 28 pts 8-2 off SU loss vs opp w/ rev under Lewis, 10-3 as dogs 5 pts vs opp off SU win, 1-7 home w/ revenge vs .500 opp 6-0 as HD s, 5-1 away after score 14 pts, 0-7 after score 28 pts, 0-6 as dogs vs opp off SU dog win, 1-7 off DD SU win 8-0 home vs opp off DD SU loss, 6-1 as favs 5 pts vs .500 opp, 1-13 home vs opp off DD SU win, 1-8 off SU win 10-1 off SU fav loss, 7-1 away L4Y, 1-8 w/ revenge after allow 10 pts, 1-7 as favs off DD SU win 6-0 vs opp off DD SU win, 5-0 off BB SU wins, 0-8 w/ revenge vs opp off DD SU loss, 2-8 off BB SU losses vs .000 opp 5-0 off DD SU loss, 6-1 as favs vs.500 foe under McCarthy, 1-7 after score 35 pts, 1-6 as dogs 3 pts off DD ATS win 5-0 off DD SU win vs opp off DD SU win, 5-1 home w/ revenge, 0-5 off DD SU win vs opp off SU loss, 1-7 aft allow 10 pts 6-0 as favs off DD SU loss vs opp w/ revenge, 9-2 as RD s vs opp off DD SU win, 1-8 as favs off DD ATS win, 1-5 home L3Y 5-0 as dogs off DD SU win, 4-0 as favs off SU fav loss, 0-4 w/ revenge vs opp off SU fav loss, 1-5 off DD SU loss 7-1 as dogs w/ rev vs opp off DD SU loss, 0-14 as dogs vs opp off SU ATS win, 0-8 as HF s 4 pts, 1-11 after allow 28 pts 6-1 after allow 35 pts, 6-1 off SU win vs opp off BB SU losses, 0-5 as favs vs opp w/ revenge, 2-10 L3Y 7-1 off BB SU wins vs opp off SU win, 8-2 as RD s vs .500 opp, 0-7 as favs L4Y, 1-8 vs opp off SUATS loss 4-0 as dogs vs opp off BB SU wins, 12-2 as favs 5 pts, 1-5 as dogs off SU dog win, 1-5 home after score 28 pts 11-0 home vs opp off BB SU losses, 7-1 off SU win vs opp off DD SU win, 1-5 as HF s 3 pts, 1-5 as RF s under Belichick 6-0 as dogs 3 pts L9Y, 7-1 off SU fav loss vs opp off SU win, 13-2 away vs .333 opp, 1-10 as HF s 1 vs opp off SU loss 5-0 off BB SU wins, 5-1 after score 10 pts, 1-6 as favs off BB SU losses, 1-6 after score 28 pts 6-0 away off DD SU win, 9-2 as favs w/revenge, 0-5 as HF s 3 pts vs opp off SU win, 1-8 vs opp w/ revenge 5-1 as HF s off BB SU losses, 0-8 as favs vs opp off SU fav loss, 0-8 as dogs off DD ATS loss, 2-10 after allow 28 pts 7-1 as HF s 7 pts off SU loss, 5-1 as RF s w/ revenge, 0-5 home vs opp off BB SU wins, 1-8 as dogs 4 pts L10Y 4-0 as HF s 4 pts w/ revenge, 5-1 off DD SU win vs opp off DD SU win, 1-9 as dogs L5Y, 1-5 away off SU dog win 8-1 as dogs off SU loss vs opp off SU loss, 5-1 as HF s vs opp w/ revenge, 0-6 as favs off DD SU win, 1-6 after allow 10 pts 8-1 vs .500 opp, 8-1 after score 10 pts, 1-5 w/ revenge vs opp off DD SU loss, 1-5 as favs 3 pts after score 28 pts 10-0 off SU loss 4 pts, 10-1 vs opp off SU win, 7-1 as RD s 1 pt, 1-5 as dogs w/ revenge vs opp off SU loss 7-1 as dogs vs opp off SU dog win, 7-1 away off SU loss, 0-6 as favs w/ revenge vs opp off SU loss, 1-9 off SUATS win 14-2 as RD s vs opp off SUATS win, 6-1 as favs off BB SU losses, 0-5 vs opp w/ rev off BB SU losses, 1-8 home as pick or dogs 7-0 as RF s vs opp off SU loss, 15-0 SU / 12-3 ATS vs opp w/ revenge, 0-4 home vs opp off DD SU loss, 1-6 aft score 35 pts NFL PRESEASON QB ROTATIONS A Look at Probable NFL Preseason Quarterback Rotations for 2016 TEAM QUARTERBACK DEPTH CHART TEAM QUARTERBACK DEPTH CHART CINCINNATI HOUSTON INDIANAPOLIS JACKSONVILLE KANSAS CITY Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Matt Barkley, Jake Coker Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Sean Renfree, Matt Simms Joe Flacco, Ryan Mallett, Josh Johnson, Jerrod Johnson Tyrod Taylor, E J Manuel, Cardale Jones Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Joe Webb Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, David Fales, Dalyn Williams Andy Dalton, A J McCarron, Keith Wenning, Joe Licata Robert Griffin III, Josh McCown, Cody Kessler, Austin Davis Tony Romo, Kellen Moore, Dak Prescott, Jameill Showers Mark Sanchez, Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch Matthew Stafford, Dan Orlovsky, Jake Rudock Aaron Rodgers, Brett Hundley, Joe Callahan,
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