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Will the new deal end conflict in S Sudan?

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Will the new deal end conflict in S Sudan?
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  3/1/2018Will the new deal end conflict in S Sudan? | News | Africa | M&Ghttps://mg.co.za/article/2015-09-07-will-the-new-deal-end-conflict-in-s-sudan1/8 AFRICA (HTTPS://MG.CO.ZA/SECTION/NEWS-AFRICA)  Will the new deal end conflict in S Sudan? Mehari Taddele Maru (https://mg.co.za/author/mehari-taddele-maru) 07 Sep 2015 00:00  COMMENTS (HTTPS://MG.CO.ZA/ARTICLE/2015-09-07-WILL-THE-NEW-DEAL-END-CONFLICT-IN-S-SUDAN#COMMENT_THREAD) South Sudan President Salva Kiir. (AFP) (https://mg.co.za/article/---will-the-new-deal-end-conflict-in-s-sudan) The peace proposal was tabled by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development(IGAD) Plus, consisting of regional and international actors.It should be recalled that other recognised parties to the mediation have signed(//www.aljazeera.com/news///south-sudan-expected-sign-peace-deal-rebels-.html) the deal before the deadline set in August .   3/1/2018Will the new deal end conflict in S Sudan? | News | Africa | M&Ghttps://mg.co.za/article/2015-09-07-will-the-new-deal-end-conflict-in-s-sudan2/8 Despite resistance and enormous challenges that the agreement may be exposed toduring the implementation stage, the conclusion of a deal itself is a significant steptowards the achievement of peace in South Sudan. And although the warring parties showed a lack of will during the talks, the peace deal isthe best offer South Sudan can get. All African and international actors remarkably and seamlessly supported theagreement. The credit goes to the tireless efforts and the firm but fair position taken by the IGAD mediation. From ddis baba to Juba  With President Salva Kiir signature, the focus has shifted from Addis Ababa to Juba.South Sudan’s capital is expected to become the centre of the peace-building andtransitional process, and also the focal point of associated controversies related toreservations and the implementation of the peace deal.During the mediation phase, both warring parties complained about the lack of neutrality of IGAD and played into hostile attitudes among their followers. With thetransitional government composed of (https://drive.google.com/file/d/BFAwdVtt-gCelBQZVAxbjhUcFmSHoVnNaTLdmGNEhz/view) the warring parties and otherstakeholders, the axis of confrontation will mainly move to the different parties of thepeace deal – away from that of the government against the mediation.So now, with the last signature, the responsibility of making a successful transitionalprocess crucially falls on the shoulders of the South Sudanese people. They should seethis deal as an opportunity to take the power back that was seized by their fragmentedrepresentatives within the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).By demanding effective implementation of the peace deal – particularly through draftingand eventual public approval of a new permanent constitution – South Sudanese peoplecould end impunity and ensure accountability of public officials. Hurdles for peace in South Sudan Peace deals are not self-executing. Transitional periods are always unpredictable and volatile – they can lead to more crises or relative stability.  3/1/2018Will the new deal end conflict in S Sudan? | News | Africa | M&Ghttps://mg.co.za/article/2015-09-07-will-the-new-deal-end-conflict-in-s-sudan3/8 The success of the process heavily depends on the scrupulous support and closeoversight from the guarantors of peace. But above all, the transitional process will vitally rely on the will, determination and capabilities of the parties of the transition.Even with the agreement signed, implementation of the peace deal in Juba is going to bean uphill battle for everyone, particularly for the warring parties. A potentially destabilising – but hardly avoidable – element could be those forces thatmay lose seats and influence due to power-sharing in the transitional period.Using demagogic and sectarian rhetoric and playing into ethnic communities with thatdiscourse, some of the current officials and those splinter groups from the rebel bloc may pose a security challenge to the transitional process.Both President Kiir and former Vice President Riek Machar could experience strongresistance from their own followers in the implementation of the agreement. ‘The DP effect’ The warring parties may face more internal divisions due to the changing dynamicsinside and outside South Sudan, which I earlier called(//www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article) the “DPA effect”, referring to theexponential fragmentation of the rebel groups in Darfur after the  Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA).Confronting stiff resistance and relative disadvantage due to Kiir’s incumbency – and hisability to offer more government positions to his followers – Machar may face moredefections among his supporters, leading to further fragmentation of the rebel bloc.Partly attributable to the current public protests and ongoing unnecessary mobilisation(//www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article) of his own followers against theIGAD proposal, Kiir is increasingly undermining his power and ability to command the warring factions. With it, the genie is out of the bottle. And the public protests against IGAD could be wellturned into anti-Kiir demonstrations.Thus, through the agreement with Addis Ababa, the president may find himself atloggerheads with some members of his cabinet and the army, who could lose(//www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article) most of its power under the  3/1/2018Will the new deal end conflict in S Sudan? | News | Africa | M&Ghttps://mg.co.za/article/2015-09-07-will-the-new-deal-end-conflict-in-s-sudan4/8 transitional process.Kiir may even experience another rebellion within his wider but loose alliance. For theincumbent cabinet members and other lower-ranking officials, a transitional government would mean finding themselves purged from their current positions of power andauthority. They can be expected to resist such measures to the extent that their powerallows. Another area that we might see potential rebellions is the Greater Equatoria states. Thus,the signature of Kiir is not sufficient. On top of his initiative, he needs to show thecapability to implement the deal. South Sudan is becoming a failed state (//www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion///south-sudan-failed-state-.html)It is highly questionable if he really has the power to enforce his will now on the currentincumbent ministers and vice president. As an indication of the limits of the real powerhe possesses, he sacked (//www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article) fourgovernors of states before he travelled to Addis Ababa in August .To be certain, most of the legitimate demands of South Sudanese communities – such asthose for federative arrangements – could only be addressed through a permanentconstitution.In the interim period, various transitional mechanisms have to ensure that concerns,particularly from the Greater Equatoria, are addressed.IGAD Plus should, therefore, prepare itself for a scenario encompassing non-implementation of the agreement on the ground and take the pre-emptive measures forits prevention. The worst case scenario  With the peace deal, the next urgent task of the IGAD-Plus will be to establish(https://drive.google.com/file/d/BFAwdVtt-gCelBQZVAxbjhUcFmSHoVnNaTLdmGNEhz/view) transnational institutions  3/1/2018Will the new deal end conflict in S Sudan? | News | Africa | M&Ghttps://mg.co.za/article/2015-09-07-will-the-new-deal-end-conflict-in-s-sudan5/8 such as the Transitional Government of National Unity, the Joint Monitoring andEvaluation Commission and the appointment of its chair, Joint Military CeasefireCommission and the National Constitutional Review Commission.No one, not even IGAD, expects an easy implementation process, and if the latest effortsto do so result in failure, the civil war may take a more ethnic and territorial outlook,drawing South Sudan closer to a total state failure.Consequently, IGAD – more than any other organisation – will need to become evenmore involved in the implementation of the peace deal.Undeniably, all actors, including IGAD, have only supportive roles to enable the SouthSudanese to solve their own problems and help them avoid a situation that wouldotherwise necessitate regional and international intervention.Citing the sovereignty of the South Sudanese state, the warring parties are opposed toany externally backed transitional administration.Nevertheless, when a state is unable to provide protection for its population, it effectively forfeits its sovereignty to the “backup” protection mechanisms introduced by theregional and international community. Mehari Taddele Maru is a specialist in international human rights and humanitarian law an international consultant on African Union affairs and an expert in publicadministration and management.The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect AlJazeera’s editorial policy. The post Will the new deal end conflict in S Sudan? (//amediaagency.com/will-the-new-deal-end-conflict-in-s-sudan/) appeared first on African Media Agency (//amediaagency.com). South Sudan (https://mg.co.za/tag/south-sudan)Salva Kiir (https://mg.co.za/tag/salva-kiir) RECOMMENDED By NEWSROOM AI  (Http://Www.Nws.Ai/)

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