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33813_1950-1954

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PART I I The Conceptual Framework of Nat i onal Income Statistics In the past two decades national income statistics have under- gone a basic transformation. This is manifest in the considerably broadened scope of the field. The traditional purpose of national income research is to pro- vide information on the outcome of economic activity through comprehensive measures of the size, composition, and use of national output. In the more rece
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  PART II The Conceptual Frameworkof National Income Statistics In the past two decades national income statistics have under-gone a basic transformation. This is manifest in the considerablybroadened scope of the field.The traditional purpose of national income research is to pro-vide information on the outcome of economic activity throughcomprehensive measures of the size, composition, and use ofnational output. In the more recent period, the measurement ofnational output has continued to be the basic aim. But, with thegrowing realization that they can furnish a statistical picture ofthe economic structure and process, national income statisticshave been used also to an increasing extent to facilitate an under-standing of the factors which determine the outcome of economicactivity. Much more fully and systematically than in the past,national income statistics have been designed with the dual ob-jective of measuring the national output and placing it againstthe background of the transactions which underlie its productionand distribution.The national income statistics for the United States containedin this report are constructed according to this broader plan.They are therefore a comprehensive single source of integratedinformation on the Nation's economic life. NATURE AND SIGNIFICANCE OF THEINCOME DATA Because they reduce the voluminous detail of economic activityto intelligible proportions, national income statistics have becomewidely used as the factual background for economic analysis andthe preparation of economic programs. They provide the basicstatistical framework required for the study of long-term eco-nomic trends and of business fluctuations, and for the formulationof business and government economic policies. Needless to say,the statistics do not throw light on all aspects of the economy,and often must be supplemented by other bodies of economicinformation. 291692°—54 3 Two broad, practical uses of national income data may becited. These data are needed, in the first place, when the auto-matic working of the market mechanism cannot be fully reliedtipon. The mitigation of business cycles and economic mobiliza-tion for national defense are important instances in which anunderstanding of the economic mechanism, such as is facilitatedby the use of national income statistics, is a prerequisite to in-telligent action.Secondly, even when active influencing of the broad course ofeconomic events is not the aim, it is desirable to have some knowl-edge of these events so that the best possible adjustments to themcan be made. For example, the businessman wants to gauge theprobable market for his output so as to obtain a more rationalbasis for determining his policies; and the tax administrator mustestimate what governmental revenues are likely to be so that in-telligent decisions can be made about matters relating to the ex-penditure and revenue policies of the various levels of government.Whether for the purpose of exerting active influence on eco-nomic events or for passive adaptation to them, national incomedata are the most important single statistical tool for orientationin the economic world. They do not, of course, furnish directanswers to the economic problems involving their use, but theydo provide the relevant, and often indispensable, statistical back-ground for arriving at intelligent solutions. This statistical back-ground consists of a quantitative description of the structure of theeconomy over a period of years. The framework of this descrip-tion is a national economic accounting system which summarizesthe transactions linking the economic units whose interplay de-termines the functioning of the economy. Economic accounting system The production and distribution of the Nation's output necessi-tate countless transactions of buying and selling, hiring labor,investing capita], renting property, paying taxes, and other oper-ations inherent in the functioning of the economic system. The27 1954  28 A SUPPLEMENT TO THE SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS records of these transactions kept by the business, consumer, andgovernmental- units participating in them obviously are highlyrelevant for obtaining a statistical view of the economy becausethey reflect the most concrete manifestations of the Nation's eco-nomic life. However, these innumerable records must be sum-marized into a limited number of significant categories if a com-prehensible and useful description of the economic process is toemerge. This is the basic task of the national economic accountingsystem.The plan of the accounting system underlying the United Statesestimates is based upon a division of the economy into four majorsectors—business, consumers, government, and foreign. The eco-nomic behavior and motivation of these four sectors is quite differ-ent; to distinguish among them appears necessary for an under-standing of the economy in terms of the interactions of its con-stituent parts.In the construction of the economic accounting system, a na-tional income and product account is first established. This ac-count provides measures of total national output, which is thesum of the outputs produced by the four sectors of the economy.Next, accounts are set up for the sectors. In addition to showingthe portions of national output srcinating in each of them, theyare designed to depict the economic structure in terms of the inter-related transactions of the four major economic groups.Specifically, four current accounts are shown, one each forbusiness, consumers, government, and the rest of the world. Thesetrace the transactions determining the current income of each ofthe sectors, and what part of that income is used up and whatpart is devoted to saving. The sector account for business is inessence a consolidated profit and loss account for the businesssystem as a whole. For the other sectors, the accounts representcurrent receipt and expenditure accounts, in conformance withthe nonprofit-making character of thdr transactions.Most of the current transactions that appear in the account ofone sector are matched by corresponding entries in another.However, this is not so with respect to the items of saving or in-vestment. With these, the corresponding entry is found in thecapital or gross saving and investment account, which shows on aconsolidated basis the saving and investment for the economy asa whole. This is the sixth account in the national economic ac-counting system. Main advantage of accounting approach The principal advantage of formulating and presenting na-tional income statistics as a system of accounts has been intimatedin the preceding discussion. Such a system yields a set of inter-related tables which are a tremendous aid in revealing the struc-ture of the economy and thereby contribute toward a better un-derstanding of its functioning. Two aspects of the analytical valueof the accounting system may be considered.It throws into clear relief the nature of accounting relations thatmust always hold true among the component transactions sum-marized. The sense in which saving and investment are necessarilyequal is a prime example of such a relationship. The establishmentof an economic accounting system displaying this and other ac-counting relationships has been an aid to simplicity and clarity ineconomic discussions. Also,  light has been thrown on the relative magnitudes of thecomponent flows of the economic process, and the study of thefunctional relationships among them has been facilitated. In con-trast to the accounting relationships, which are a matter of defi-nition and must always hold, these functional relationships areregularities that hold by and large as a matter of economic ex-perience, but which can and do change in response to technologi- cal,  institutional, and psychological changes. Measurement andstudy of these relationships—such as those between consumptionand disposable income and between wages and profits—areessential for an understanding of the working of the economy.However, because they cannot be counted upon to hold without fail,  these relationships must be the object of continuing investi-gation. Technical  uses  of economic accounting system The establishment of a system of national economic accountshas benefited also the producers of national income data. It hasaided their work in both its theoretical and statistical phases.With respect to the former, it must first be recognized that na-tional economic accounting has been of some aid in improving thedefinition of national output. It is true that no genuinely newcriteria for solving definitional problems have been provided, andalso that many definitions of national output are compatible withthe principles on which the system is based. Yet, it has helped thediscussion in several ways.A great deal of the discussion of definitions was obscured by thefailure to distinguish clearly between the income and productmeasurements of output and by the lack of a clear grasp of therelation between them. The development of national income sta-tistics in an economic accounting framework has made for clarity.Some of the larger issues involved in the definition of output werebrought into better focus, and a powerful tool was provided forthe consistent treatment of financial intermediaries, nonprofitinstitutions, imputed income and product, and similar problemareas in the formulation of national income concepts.Economic accounting has contributed to problems of definitionalso by depriving them of some of their importance. In substantialpart, these problems revolve around the question of whether ornot certain items—such as government interest, business taxes,transfer payments, and subsidies—should be included in the ag-gregate measures of national output. Prior to the establishmentof the system of accounts, the decision to omit such moot itemsfrom total output meant that their record, insofar as national in-come statistics were concerned, was lost. Since the items are ger-mane to economic investigations in which national income dataare used, there often was reluctance to exclude them, even thoughthis may have been indicated from the standpoint of measuringoutput. With the presentation of national income statistics in theform of a complete statistical picture, the record of transactionsexcluded from the principal aggregates is no longer lost. The prob-lem of defining output can be faced squarely on its own merit.Moreover, to the extent that fully satisfactory solutions todefinitional problems cannot be found, the economic accountingsystem has made it easier to live with them. Many of the contro-versial items (irrespective of whether defined as part of the outputaggregates) are shown separately in the account tables, and al-ternative measures of output can be constructed depending onparticular needs and preferences. 1954  NATIONAL INCOME,  1954  EDITION 29 In  two  general ways,  the  accounting approach  is an aid to the statistical aspect  of  national income work.  To  begin with,  it is of considerable help  in  defining  the  task  of  statistical data collection.Once  the  particular accounting framework providing  the  mostuseful summary  of  the economic structure  has  been decided upon,a comprehensive list  of  requirements  for  economic statisticsemerges rather automatically.  A  list obtained  in  this  way  providesa useful guide  for  planning  the  collection  of  primary statisticaldata  so as to  yield  the  information most relevant  to  economicanalysis.The  use of the  accounting approach also facilitates  the  estima-tion  of the  various national income aggregates  and  their compo-nents from  the  available statistical material.  It  does this  by  makingclear that many items  of  information  can be  obtained from  the records  of  either  the  buyer  or the  seller,  and  hence affords flexi-bility  in  adapting estimating methods  to  available information.In addition, this approach enables  one to  check every accountfor internal consistency  by  comparing  the  debit  and  credit totalsas well  as the  relations among  the  various debit  and  credit entries.It also enables  one to  derive  as  residuals components  of the na- tional economic accounts which cannot  be  estimated directlyfrom available data. Improvements  of the  accounting system In  the  derivation  of the  definitions  and  classifications used  in the national economic accounting system,  an  attempt  is  made  to set forth  the  distinctions that  are  most meaningful from  the  stand-point  of  economic analysis, taking account  of the  limitations  im- posed  by the  nature  of the  accounting data available  for the  fourmajor economic groups. Fortunately, there  is a  great deal  of parallelism between  the  requirements  of  economic analysis  and those  of the  accounting systems used  by  business  and  other  eco- nomic units. Over wide areas  no  conflict arises from  the  fact thateconomic questions have  to be  answered  by  reference  to  measuresconstructed from such accounting data.  On the  contrary,  a  majoradvantage  of the  system  of  national economic accounts  is  that  it summarizes  the  actual transactions  of  economic units  as  reflectedin their  own  accounting records.However, some  of the  most difficult problems  of  national  in- come estimation arise when  the  definitions underlying theserecords  do not  yield  the  type  of  information demanded  by eco- nomic analysis. National income work  is  continually concernedwith  the  modification  of the  basic accounting data  in  order  to improve their economic significance. Often these data  can be adjusted  to  meet  the  requirements  of  economic analysis,  but  whenthe transition cannot  be  accomplished supplementary informa-tion must  be  introduced  to  complete  the  picture.Comprehensive national economic accounting  is a  recent  de- velopment  the  potentialities  of  which have  not yet  been fullyrealized.  The set of  accounts presented  in  this report should  not be regarded  as the  definitive system. Apart from possible improve-ments  in the  formal design  of the  accounts, several elaborationsof the present system would  be  desirable.For instance, only four major economic groups  are  distin-guished, whereas,  in  view  of  their heterogeneity, further break-downs would  be  useful  for  many types  of  analysis. Also, savingand investment accounts  for  each  of  the four major sectors wouldconstitute  an  important supplement  to the  consolidated accountfor  the  economy  as a  whole.  The  construction  of  balance sheetaccounts, showing  the  structure  of the  assets  and  liabilities  of the various sectors, likewise would expand  the  scope  and  usefulnessof the national economic accounting system.It  is to be  emphasized, however, that further expansion  of the national accounts must  be  made with  due  regard  to the  flow  of statistical information (which would constitute  a  generally limit-ing factor)  and to the  danger  of an  overelaboration that mightadd unduly  to  their complexity  and not  proportionately  to  theirvalue.Coordinate  in  importance  to  further work  on the  conceptualframework, articulation,  and  coverage  of the  economic account-ing system  is the  improvement  of  its statistical reliability.  For the entries  in the  national economic accounts represent estimateswhich  are  subject  to  error.  The  problem  of  statistical reliabilityis discussed  in  Part  III of  this report. The  detailed statistics In  the  preceding discussion  the  main emphasis was  on the sum- mary aspects  of the  economic accounting system underlyingUnited States national income statistics. However, sight shouldnot  be  lost  of the  wealth  of  statistical information that  now  existsto elaborate  and  supplement various aspects  of  this accountingsystem.  For in  many uses  of  the data  it is  specifically this informa-tion which  is of  primary interest  and  value.Attention  may be  drawn first  to the  many statistical tables  in Part  V of  this report,  of  which  the six  national account tablesbriefly described above  are but  highly condensed summaries.These detailed tables present further information  on the  break-downs  of the  income flow  by  type  of  income  and  legal form  of organization  and of the  product flow  by  type  of  product. Alsogiven  are  breakdowns  of  national income  and its  constituentdistributive shares  by  industry  of  srcin.Secondly,  the  conversion  of  gross national product  and its com- ponents into constant dollars, which  is  presented  in  Part  IV, represents  an  important addition  to the  current dollar series  in terms  of  which  the  complete accounting system  is  stated.Thirdly,  the  annual estimates  of  personal income  by  States,  not included  in  this report,  may be  regarded  as the  elaboration  in a regional dimension  of the  depiction  of the  economic structure.Of  a  similar nature,  as  also involving further articulation  of the consumer sector,  are the  estimates  of the  size distribution  of in- come prepared  in the  National Income Division. Plan  of the  following discussion In  the  following pages  of  this Part  of  the report,  the  conceptualframework  of the  United States national income statistics  is ex- plained  in  greater detail. Since  the  measurement  of  output totalsis  the  prime objective  of  national income statistics  and,  more-over,  is  largely independent  of the  full-fledged economic account-ing system depicting  the  economic structure,  the  derivation  of these totals  is  first explained,  in a  summary manner. Next,  the structure  of the  complete accounting system  is  developed.  In the course  of  this discussion,  the  more detailed aspects  of the  defini-tions  of the  output totals  are  also covered.  A  final section  pro- vides,  for  convenient summarization,  a  series  of  definitions  to which  the  national income  and  product aggregates  and  theircomponents conform. 1954  3 A SUPPLEMENT  TO THE  SURVEY  OF  CURRENT BUSINESS SUMMARY CONSTRUCTION  OF  NATIONALOUTPUT MEASURES In this section  the  basic notions underlying national incomeand product  are  stated;  the  derivation  of  these measures  in  termsof their conceptual content  is  explained;  and the  adequacy  of definition  of the  resulting aggregates  is  examined. Basic Notions Underlying National OutputMeasurement Economic production In  the  definition  of a  measure  of  national output,  the  first taskis  to  delimit economic production from  the  pursuit  of  other activi-ties that resemble  it in  that they involve  the use of  human effortand other resources  and are  useful.  For  instance,  the  productionof radio sets  has its  counterpart  in the  hobbies  of the  radio  ama- teur, commercial shaves  are  akin  to  self-administered ones,  and the educational services  of  teachers often  are  supplemented  by those  of  parents.  In  spite  of  resemblances,  a  distinction must  be drawn between economic production  and  noneconomic pursuits.For  a  measure  of  national output must, broadly speaking,  be con- fined  to  the former;  it  cannot,  in any  systematic way, take accountof activities outside  the  economic sphere.In  the  present report,  the  basic criterion used  for  distinguishingan activity  as  economic production is whether  it is  reflected  in the sales  and  purchase transactions  of the  market economy.  The ex- clusion  of  illegal transactions  is a  tradition-based conventionwhich  is an  exception  to  this general rule. Product  and  income flows A fundamental distinction relevant  to the  measurement  of  eco-nomic production  so  delimited  is  suggested  by  observation  of the operations  of a  typical business firm.  On the one  hand, such  a firm produces  and  sells  a  flow  of  product values.  On the  otherhand,  it  pays  out (or  retains) incomes that accrue  in the  courseof  its  operations. This double aspect  of the  activities  of the  singlebusiness firm suggests that  the  measurement  of  national outputcan  be  approached  in a  two-fold manner, either  by  summingproduct values  or by  summing income flows.  It  will  be  seen thatthe measure  of  national output  in  terms  of  product flows which  is obtained  by  pursuing this approach  is the  gross national productand that  the  corresponding measure  in  terms  of  income flows  is the national income. Final  and  intermediate products In  the  measurement  of  national output  via  product flows,  a further distinction, between final  and   intermediate products,must  be  made.  A  nonduplicative total  is  desired,  one  that  is con- fined to  the  value  of  the final,  or  end, products  of  the economy  and excludes  all  others, labelled intermediate.  To use a  simple  ex- ample,  if the  production process during  a  year involves  the pro- duction  of  wheat,  its  milling into flour,  and the  baking  of  breadwhich  is  sold  to  consumers, then  the  value  of  national outputshould equal  the  full value  of the  bread  and  should  not  countalso  the  separate values  of the  wheat  and  flour which have beenused  up in the  course  of  producing  it.  This result  is  obtained  by counting only  the  value  of the  bread,  as the end  product,  and ignoring  the  other product values.A distinction between final  and  intermediate products cannotbe drawn  on the  basis  of the  technical characteristics  of the out- put involved.  In the  above example,  for  instance, flour  is an  inter-mediate product.  If,  however,  the  flour  is  sold  not to  bakeries,but directly  to  housewives  for  home baking,  it  becomes  the  finalproduct  of the  economy, even though  in a  technical sense  it is not fully fabricated.However,  an  effective criterion  for  distinguishing between finaland intermediate products  can be  established  by  reference  to business practices followed  in the  production  of  goods  and  serv-ices. There emerges  a  working definition  of  final product  as a purchase that  is not  resold,  and of  intermediate product  as one that  is  resold.  A  more technical,  but  sometimes more convenient,phrasing  of the  same idea  is  that  a  final product  is a  purchasethat  is not  charged  to  current cost whereas  an  intermediateproduct is one that is so charged.  The  phrase during  the  account-ing period  is  sometimes appended  to  these formulations  so as to make them more exact. 1 Imputations In  the  measures  of  national output shown  in  this report,  the foregoing criteria  are the  basic tools  for  distinguishing economicproduction from noneconomic pursuits  and the  part  of  economicproduction which  is  final from that which  is  intermediate.  How- ever, modifications  in the  definitions  are  made  in  certain instancesto enhance  the  significance  of the  measurements.The most important  of  these modifications concern  the  inclusionin national output  of  the so-called imputations,  or  items  of  pro-duction  and  income  in  kind.  For  instance, food furnished  to employees would  not  become part  of the  national output  if the initial definition were rigidly followed.  It  would  be an  inter-mediate product, since  it is an  element  of  the current cost chargesof  the  employer furnishing  the  food. However,  it  seems desirableto count  it as  part  of  national production,  if  only  to  secure  uni- formity  of  treatment with respect  to  employees  who buy  food  out of  the  correspondingly higher money wages given them. Otherimputations that  are  made  in  measuring national output  are for the value  of  food produced  and  consumed  on  farms,  the  rentalvalue  of  owner-occupied houses,  and for  nonmonetary incomeand product flows arising  in  connection with financial inter-mediaries. Charges against final product In this report,  the  product measure  of  national output  is de- rived  by  adding  the  values  of  final products  and  omitting inter-mediate products,  as in the  bread  and  flour example.  It is  termed 1.  In  order  to  simplify  the  discussion, changes  in  business inventories  are not  taken intoexplicit account  in  this section.  But it  should  be  noted that, according  to the  above defi-nitions,  an  increase  in  inventories  is a  positive component  of  final  product  and a  decrease  in inventories  a  negative component.  (A  detailed explanation of the treatment  of  inventoriesin the national accounts is given later  in  this Part.) 1954

60472_1920-1924

Jul 25, 2017

11834_1950-1954

Jul 25, 2017
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