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A farm-level analysis of carbon sequestration in Ghana using IMPACT linked to the DSSAT-Century, Household and Ruminant models

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A presentation prepared by González-Estrada, E.; Walen, V.K.; Naab, J.; Thornton, P.K. and Herrero, M. for the Regional Scientific Workshop on Land Management for Carbon Sequestration organized by SANREM-CRSP, SM-CRSP, IER and NASA. Bamako, Mali. February 26-27, 2004.
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  • 1. A farm-level analysis for carbon sequestration in Ghana using IMPACT linked with the DSSAT , Household and Ruminant models E. González-Estrada 1 , V.K. Walen 2 , J. Naab 3 , P.K. Thornton 1 and M. Herrero 1 1 International Livestock Research Institute , PO Box 30709, Nairobi, Kenya 2 University of Florida , PO Box 110570, Gainesville, FL, USA 3 Savanna Agricultural Research Institute , PO Box 494, Wa, Upper West Region, Ghana  
  • 2. Case study: CRSP-SM field trials in Wa, Upper West region of Ghana Objective: Explore the role of crop-livestock interactions in the carbon dynamics at the farm level
  • 3. IMPACT I ntegrated M odelling P latform for Mixed A nimal- C rop Sys t ems Framework Household Optimization Model Multiple-Criteria linear programming DSSAT Crops Ruminant Livestock
  • 5. Case study Piisi, Upper West Region, Ghana Household size: 12 (5 adults & 7 children) Plot ID Size Crop 1 0.8 ha Groundnuts 2 1.6 ha Rice 3 1.2 ha Millet Cowpea Sorghum 4 0.3 ha Bambara nuts 5 0.6 ha Yams 6 0.4 ha Maize
  • 6. Case study – 2- Livestock Number Cattle 2 Sheep 3 Goats 2 Pigs 3 Chicken 15 Guinea fowl 8
  • 7. IMPACT’s base line scenario analysis: Net income : 160 USD Total carbon balance in agricultural land (Inputs-Outputs) : -3219 kg Food security status : Low energy and protein intake during June-October
  • 8. IMPACT Integrated Modelling Platform for Mixed Animal-Crop Systems Household Optimization Model Multiple-Criteria linear programming Framework DSSAT Crops Ruminant Livestock
  • 9. ILRI’s household model: <ul><li>Integrates biological, social and economic aspects of smallholder farming systems </li></ul><ul><li>Linear programming model </li></ul><ul><ul><li>An objective function (i.e. maximize net income) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A set of production activities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A set of constraints </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Runs for a period of 1 year in monthly timesteps </li></ul>
  • 10. <ul><li>The model maximises gross margins subject to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Land constraints (fixed farm size and number of plots) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Satisfying food security for the household </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Labour constraints </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cash constraints (cannot spend more than what is generated) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Seasonal production constraints for crop and livestock activities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other objectives can be maximised or minimised (i.e minimise costs, nutrient losses) </li></ul></ul>ILRI’s household model - constraints -
  • 11. HH model Output 1. Food security - Role of livestock within the system - <ul><li>Base-line analysis : </li></ul><ul><li>Only chicken, pigs, guinea fowls and a goat are sold or consumed by the household </li></ul><ul><li>Ruminants are kept for dowry, sacrifices, savings </li></ul><ul><li>(no cash expenses for their maintenance other than 7,000 cedis a year for health) </li></ul>Optimised management (food security achieved throughout the year, no land-use changes) : Two tropical livestock units (TLU) are sold to generate cash to “buy food security”.
  • 12. HH model Output 2. Maximize net income <ul><li>Change of land-use pattern : </li></ul><ul><li>Increase the number of TLU that are sold!!! </li></ul><ul><li>Increase the proportion of fodder-yielding crops (e.g. maize) </li></ul><ul><li>No practical solution!!! </li></ul><ul><li>Farmer’s attitude towards risk. </li></ul>
  • 13. HH model Output 3. Maximize carbon fixation Net income : 96 USD (-40%) Total carbon balance in agricultural Land (Inputs-Outputs) : 1930 kg Food security : Achieved “ Where is my Fufu???” <ul><li>Ground nuts </li></ul><ul><li>Rice </li></ul><ul><li>Bambara nuts </li></ul><ul><li>Millet </li></ul><ul><li>Sorghum </li></ul><ul><li>Yams </li></ul><ul><li>Maize </li></ul>Current land use <ul><li>Ground nuts </li></ul><ul><li>Rice </li></ul><ul><li>Bambara nuts </li></ul><ul><li>Maize </li></ul>Optimized land use
  • 14. Back to: HH model Output 1. - Role of livestock within the system - <ul><li>Base-line analysis : </li></ul><ul><li>Only chicken, pigs, guinea fowls and a goat are sold or consumed by the household </li></ul><ul><li>Ruminants are kept for dowry, sacrifices, savings </li></ul><ul><li>(no cash expenses for their maintenance other than 7,000 cedis a year for health) </li></ul>Optimised scenario by the household model (food security achieved throughout the year, no land-use changes) : Two tropical livestock units (TLU) are sold to generate cash to “buy food security”.
  • 15. Some more on the role of livestock within the system and carbon sequestration <ul><li>Field trials. CRSP plots in Ghana. </li></ul><ul><li>Improved MAIZE management </li></ul><ul><li>Crop residue incorporated to the soil </li></ul>Simulate grain yield in response to maize stover incorporated to the soil DSSAT-Century Simulate TLU maintenance in response to maize stover availability Ruminant
  • 16. Rainfall distribution in Wa, and its effect on fodder resources utilization Homestead native fodder Maize stover
  • 17. Trade-off analysis by simulated output of number of TLU vs grain yield Grain yield Number of TLU
  • 18. Conclusion Is the household of this case study ready for adopting technologies to improve carbon sequestration? Household level analyses for priority setting Produce a household typology for a given ecoregion Identify farm types that are capable to modify management strategies towards a better use of carbon
  • 19. La fin Merci!
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