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A Method for the Probabilistic Security Analysis of Transmission Grids - Liisa Pottonen - 2005 - ISBN9512275929

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TKK Dissertations 1 Espoo 2005 A METHOD FOR THE PROBABILISTIC SECURITY ANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION GRIDS Doctoral Dissertation Liisa Pottonen Helsinki University of Technology Department of Electrical and Communications Engineering Power Systems and High Voltage Engineering TKK Dissertations 1 Espoo 2005 A METHOD FOR THE PROBABILISTIC SECURITY ANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION GRIDS Doctoral Dissertation Liisa Pottonen Dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Science in Technology to be presented with
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  TKK Dissertations 1 Espoo 2005 A METHOD FOR THE PROBABILISTIC SECURITYANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION GRIDS Doctoral Dissertation Helsinki University of TechnologyDepartment of Electrical and Communications EngineeringPower Systems and High Voltage Engineering Liisa Pottonen  TKK Dissertations 1 Espoo 2005 A METHOD FOR THE PROBABILISTIC SECURITYANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION GRIDS Doctoral Dissertation Liisa Pottonen Dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Science in Technology to be presented with due permissionof the Department of Electrical and Communications Engineering for public examination anddebate in Auditorium S4 at Helsinki University of Technology (Espoo, Finland) on the 8th of April,2005, at 12 noon. Helsinki University of TechnologyDepartment of Electrical and Communications EngineeringPower Systems and High Voltage EngineeringTeknillinen korkeakouluSähkö- ja tietoliikennetekniikan osastoSähköverkot ja suurjännitetekniikka  Distribution:Helsinki University of TechnologyDepartment of Electrical and Communications EngineeringPower Systems and High Voltage EngineeringP.O.Box 3000FI - 02015 TKKURL: http://www.sahko.hut.fi/ Tel. +358-9-4511E-mail: liisa.pottonen@tkk.fi or liisa.pottonen@fingrid.fi© 2005 Liisa PottonenISBN 951-22-7591-0ISBN 951-22-7592-9 (PDF)ISSN 1795-2239ISSN 1795-4584 (PDF)URL: http://lib.hut.fi/Diss/2005/isbn9512275929/ TKK-DISS-1976Otamedia OyEspoo 2005  HELSINKI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY P.O. BOX 1000, FIN-02015 HUThttp://www.hut.fi ABSTRACT OF DOCTORAL DISSERTATION AuthorName of the dissertationDate of manuscript Date of the dissertationMonograph Article dissertation (summary + original articles)DepartmentLaboratoryField of researchOpponent(s)Supervisor(Instructor)AbstractKeywordsUDC Number of pagesISBN (printed) ISBN (pdf)ISBN (others) ISSNPublisherPrint distributionThe dissertation can be read at http://lib.hut.fi/Diss/ Liisa PottonenA method for the probabilistic security analysis of transmission gridsMarch 2005April 8th, 2005 ✔ Department of Electrical and Communications EngineeringPower Systems and High Voltage EngineeringPower SystemsPhD Gerd Kjølle, SINTEF, NorwayProfessor Matti LehtonenResearch Professor Urho PulkkinenThis thesis proposes a probabilistic method for evaluating transmission grid security after line shunt faults. The mostefficient contributions to system reliability enhancement can be found in probabilistic methods applicable to realtransmission grids. One aim of the research was also to get an estimate of the Finnish 400 kV transmission grid reliability.The method developed in this thesis takes into account the effect of the following issues: frequency of line faults, faultlocation on the line, protection system, different substation structures, failure rates of substation components and thedynamic behaviour of the power system after different contingencies.Mathematical modelling and computational methods were used in this research. Statistical analyses for the estimation of initiating events such as line faults were made. A failure mode and effect analysis was made for substation componentsusing both the Finnish 400 kV device-failure database and expert judgments. Reliability analyses for substation post-faultoperations were made with event and fault trees. Different event tree end states (fault duration and circuit breaker trips)were then simulated with a power system dynamic analysis program using a particular load flow and grid topology. Thedynamic analysis results were classified as secure, alert, emergency and system breakdown. A special alert case 'partialsystem breakdown' was also classified. The event trees were then reanalysed, now focusing on the power system statesrather than the substation consequences.The method was applied to the Finnish transmission system and some quantitative estimates for grid reliability wereobtained. Several grid-level importance measures (Fussell-Vesely, risk decrease factor, risk increase factor and sensitivityof parameters) for substation components and model parameters, as well as estimates of the total and partial systembreakdown frequencies, were calculated. In this way, the relative importance of the substation components regarding thetotal and partial system breakdown was reached. Contributing factors to partial and total system breakdown after line faultswere also found and ranked. On the basis of the results, some recommendations for improving the transmission gridreliability, in terms of maintenance planning and investments, were made.Transmission grid, power system, security, reliability, substation, protection, importance519.248:519.873:621.31119 p. + app. 88 p.951-22-7591-0951-22-7592-91795-2239 (printed), 1795-4584 (pdf)Helsinki University of Technology, Power Systems and High Voltage EngineeringLaboratory of Power Systems and High Voltage Engineering2005/isbn9512275929/  ✔
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