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CE311s-stw-lesson3-f

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CE311s
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  New Homework ã  Any HW#1 not turned in are now late ã Section 2.1: 4, 8 ã Section 2.2: 12, 26 ã Section 2.3: 32, 41, 42 ã Section 2.4: 50, 66 ã Section 2.5: 78, 80 ã Due BEFORE class next Thur. ã Will also be posted to the course web site  LESSON 3  CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ã Notation: P(A | B)   represents the conditional probability  of event  A   given that the event  B   has occurred. ã Example: monthly concrete production Event  A  : two concrete plants (old & new), Event B  : two conditions (acceptable, unacceptable) ã If a random sample  is selected, what is the probability that it is from the old plant? ã If a sample that is found unacceptable is selected, what is the probability that it is from the old plant?  Conditional probability (cont’d.)   ã For any two events  A & B  , the conditional probability of  A   given that   B has occurred is: ã  Notice that: P (A | B)    P(A) P (B | A)   P(B) P (A | B)   P (B | A)       B P  B A P  B A P    |
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