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Decision Making and Creativity

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Decision Making and Creativity
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  Decision Making and Creativity McShane-Olekalns-Travaglione OB Pacific Rim 3e © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved 1  Decision Making at Google McShane-Olekalns-Travaglione OB Pacific Rim 3e © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved 2 Google employees in Sydney, Australia (see photo) and around the world make better decisions by having 20 per cent of their time to work on pet projects, using evidence-based experiments to test ideas, and being involved in organisational decisions.  Decision Making Defined McShane-Olekalns-Travaglione OB Pacific Rim 3e © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved 3 Decision making is a conscious process of making choices among one or more alternatives, with the intention of moving toward some desired state of affairs.  Rational Choice Paradigm  Rational choice paradigm –effective decision makers identify, select, and apply the best possible alternative  Two key elements of rational choice 1. Subjective expected utility –determines choice with highest value (maximisation) 2. Decision making process –systematic application of stages of decision making McShane-Olekalns-Travaglione OB Pacific Rim 3e © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved 4  Subjective Expected Utility Estimating the best possible alternative (maximisation) Expected  –probability of an outcome occurring  eg. chance that outcome 3 will occur is 90% if choice ‘A’ is chosen, 30% if choice ‘B’ is chosen Utility  –value or happiness produced by each option from value of expected outcomes  Choice ‘B’ has higher utility (value) than choice ‘A’  Choice ‘B’ expected utility is(.8x7)+(.2x-2)+(.3x1)=6.4 McShane-Olekalns-Travaglione OB Pacific Rim 3e © 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved 5 Choice B Outcome 1 (+7)Outcome 2 (-2)Outcome 3 (+1) .8.2.3 Choice A Outcome 1 (+7)Outcome 2 (-2)Outcome 3 (+1) .2.5.9Utility (expected happiness)Probability of outcome occurring

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Jan 3, 2019
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