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NatCat in the Caribbean. Paramaribo - CAA conference 2 nd of December PDF

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NatCat in the Caribbean Paramaribo - CAA conference 2 nd of December 2016 Agenda 1. Nat Cat in the Caribbean 2. Hurricanes 3. Earthquakes 4. Become more resilient 2 One and a Half Centuries of Storms Paint
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NatCat in the Caribbean Paramaribo - CAA conference 2 nd of December 2016 Agenda 1. Nat Cat in the Caribbean 2. Hurricanes 3. Earthquakes 4. Become more resilient 2 One and a Half Centuries of Storms Paint a Frightening Portrait Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 Slide 3 Slide 3 4 What is CatNet? 5 Hurricanes 6 MODIS Aqua sea surface temperature (SST) average Vertical wind shear August 29 th 2005 Estimates of the amount of atmospheric water vapor from satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager. Source: Carl Mears and Frank Wentz /Remote Sensing Systems 7 Hits and Misses in the Caribbean Category h3 - h5 h1 - h5 TS all Number Type Wind (mph) Wind (km/h) TS Cat Cat Cat Cat Saffir-Simpson Scale (SS) Number of named tropical systems passing by within 69 miles of the Caribbean islands and Bermuda over the period Source: Caribbean Hurricane Network Cat Vulnerability Hurricane Felix 2007 Water floods a street after the heavy rains of Hurricane Felix passed over Oranjestad, Aruba (2007). Felix lashed a cluster of Dutch Caribbean islands, forcing residents and tourists to hunker down in homes and hotels but doing little damage as the Category 3 storm chugged into open waters of the Caribbean Sea. 9 Vulnerability Hurricane Matthew 2016 Hurricane Matthew has brought havoc across the Caribbean and parts of southern United States. Not only have many 100 lives been lost, but tens of thousands of people have lost their homes, and with that access to food and essential services. Outbreaks of cholera due to water mixing with sewage in Haiti is further aggravating the extreme hardship, emphasizing the urgent need for swift financial relief. 10 Vulnerability per occupancy Experience & expert judgement 100% Mean damage degree 0% Hazard intensity e.g. wind speed 11 Windstorm and Structure Hurricane Sandy Wind Damage Hurricane Sandy Wind Damage 12 Earthquakes 13 Earthquakes are not predictable Cannot predict the time, location and size of future earthquakes Earthquakes in August, 2014, California highlight the randomness of earthquake occurrence. location of the Napa earthquake Data: USGS/Map: GoogleEarth 14 Port Royal earthquake, 1692 Caribbean has a history of earthquakes A shoreline that was changed permanently People sucked into the ground by liquefaction 15 Haiti 2010 earthquake One of the deadliest NatCat events Magnitude 7.0 About 230,000 fatalities (3mi affected) Aftershocks USD 100 million insured losses About USD 8 billion economic loss (GDP is about 13 billion) 16 When an earthquake occurs, it shakes the ground Normal buildings have vertical strength, not so much horizontal In seismic areas horizontal strengthening must be higher than other regions Vertical strength Horizontal weakness 17 Construction materials are key Wood is flexible Not great in a hurricane so not seen much in Puerto Rico Masonry (brick) is inflexible and not strong Reinforced Concrete is inflexible but a bit stronger Wood frame Accounts for much more of the building stock than in e.g., California Steel is more flexible and strong, but strength of the joints are important Steel frame Concrete Masonry 18 Become more resilient 19 Protection gap Collaboration to become more resilient How big is the natural catastrophe property protection gap? Closing the gap Both the private and the public sectors can play a role in closing the gap. Create and Optimize the Distributions Channels Increase insurance knowledge Simplified Products / Consumers Confidence 20 Simplified products Speedy insurance payout of USD 29 million to support Caribbean relief in wake of Matthew CCRIF SPC (formerly the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility), reinsured by Swiss Re, has been preparing a rapid payout to affected member states including Haiti, Barbados, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines of more than USD 29 million, scheduled for October 19 th Parametric products Pay-outs are based on indices rather than on actual losses. Structures are used to enhance insurability of difficult-to-insure risks, such as weatherrelated, commodity and non-damage business interruption risks. 21 Increase knowledge shaping climate resilient development / ECA case study Caribbean Authored by the Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group, Shaping climate-resilient development: a framework for decision-making, identifies significant potential for cost-effective adaptation measures. It presents a practical framework that national and local officials can use to quantify the risk that climate change poses to their economies, and to minimize the cost of adapting to that risk. How to educate yourself : 22 23 Legal notice 2016 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivative works of this presentation or to use it for commercial or other public purposes without the prior written permission of Swiss Re. The information and opinions contained in the presentation are provided as at the date of the presentation and are subject to change without notice. Although the information used was taken from reliable sources, Swiss Re does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or comprehensiveness of the details given. All liability for the accuracy and completeness thereof or for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information contained in this presentation is expressly excluded. Under no circumstances shall Swiss Re or its Group companies be liable for any financial or consequential loss relating to this presentation. 24
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