Creative Writing

4 Probability

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  Probability  Questions ã what is a good general size for artifact samples? ã what proportion of populations of interest should we be attempting to sample? ã how do we evaluate the absence of an artifact type in our collections?  ―frequentist‖ approach   ã  probability should be assessed in purely objective terms ã no room for subjectivity on the part of individual researchers ã knowledge about probabilities comes from the relative frequency of a large number of trials  –  this is a good model for coin tossing  –  not so useful for archaeology, where many of the events that interest us are unique…     basic concepts ã  probability of event = p 0 <= p <= 1 0 = certain non-occurrence 1 = certain occurrence ã .5 = even odds ã .1 = 1 chance out of 10
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