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AK-Sen, AK-Gov Hellenthal & Associates (Oct. 2014)

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ALASKA PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH SURVEY October 15th to 21st, 2014 Sample size = 403; margin of error + 4.88% INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY This report presents an analysis of a survey of Alaskan statewide likely 2014 General Election voters. The survey measured properties of Alaskan voters' demographics, behaviors and attitudes. Research typically involves estimating the characteristics of a designated population. Because of the costs of conducting a census of all items in a population and the ade
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    Page 1 ALASKA PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH SURVEY October 15th to 21st, 2014 Sample size = 403; margin of error + 4.88%   INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY  This report presents an analysis of a survey of Alaskan statewide likely 2014 General Election voters. The survey measured properties of Alaskan voters' demographics, behaviors and attitudes. Research typically involves estimating the characteristics of a designated population. Because of the costs of conducting a census of all items in a population and the adequacy of sample results, sample statistics were used to make statistical inferences concerning population parameters. Four hundred and three (403) Alaskan likely voters were interviewed between October 15th and 21st, 2014. Interviewing was conducted by telephone on a random digit basis. That is, computerized random numbers were generated for the last two digits of the suffix of each workable telephone prefix in Alaska. All Alaskan voters who are accessible by telephone had an equal chance of being interviewed. Of the 403 interviews, 318 (79.0%) were conducted on cellular phones and 85 (21.0%) on land-lines. All land-line and cellular telephone households were called at least five times: during the evening (5:00 to 9:00 pm), day (11:00 am to 5:00 pm), and weekend (12:00 pm to 9:00 pm). This survey is a true random digit survey fielded in Alaska by Hellenthal & Associates. All other Alaska research firms contract their fielding work to outside firms. They do not actually conduct the research themselves. Therefore, their results are only as accurate as the Outside firm's quality controls. Hellenthal & Associates develops their own sampling frame and constantly monitors the fielding to insure a high response rate and adequate random sampling. The areas of Alaska surveyed for the general population survey were as follows: THE FOLLOWING VARIABLE IS CALCULATED USING THE TELEPHONE PREFIX UNWEIGHTED WEIGHTED MARGIN OF  AREAS FREQUENCY PERCENT ERROR   Southeast.................49.......12.2%.......+ 13.4 % Kenai.....................34........8.5%.......+ 17.3 % Anchorage................167.......41.3%.......+ 7.6 % Matsu.....................49.......12.1%.......+ 12.0 % Greater Fairbanks.........62.......15.4%.......+ 13.0 % Rural/Bush................42.......10.5%.......+ 12.4 %    Page 2 TOTALS...................403......100.0%.......+ 4.88% Margin of error At a 95% confidence level, the empirical proportions reported in the general population survey can be projected, within plus or minus 4.88%, to the entire Alaskan likely voter population, aged 18 and over. This means one can  be 95% sure that the frequencies reported in the general population survey are within 4.88% of the true Alaskan likley voter population proportions. The questionnaire with results is as follows: ALASKA PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH SURVEY October 15th to 21st, 2014 Sample size = 403; margin of error + 4.88%  HELLENTHAL AND ASSOCIATES 2200 Vanderbilt Circle Anchorage, Alaska 99508 (907) 276-1001 or 277-2315 (fax) hellenthal@gci.net (e-mail) Hello, my name is_______________ and I am calling for Alaska Research Company. We are conducting an area-wide public opinion research survey. Your telephone number was randomly selected. The questions I need to ask will take only a few minutes. All of your responses will be completely confidential. (PAUSE AND PROCEED) S1. Is this telephone number _____________? S2. (LANDLINE) Am I talking to you at a place where you live? (CELL) Do you live in Alaska? S3. Are you registered to vote in the State of Alaska? IF YES, THEN PROCEED TO QUESTION #1 IF NO, THEN ASK... Is there anyone home who is registered to vote in the State of Alaska? IF YES THEN ASK... May I speak with them? (PROCEED TO QUESTION #1 OR TERMINATE AND  NOTE ON TELEPHONE SHEET) IF NO, THEN ASK... When will someone be home who is registered to vote? (TERMINATE AND NOTE ON TELEPHONE SHEET) 1. Realistically speaking, are you absolutely certain, very likely, somewhat likely, or not at all likely to vote in the November 4th Alaska General  Election? LIKELINESS TO VOTE FREQUENCY PERCENT      Page 3 Absolutely certain.................285........70.7% Very likely.........................91........22.5% Somewhat likely.....................27.........6.8% 2. I am going to read the names of some public figures. Please tell me whether your opinion of each is very  positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative -- or if you don't know who they are. Is your opinion of (FILL IN PUBLIC FIGURES) very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative -- or don't you know who he/she is? 4 3 2 1 0  VERY SOMEWHAT SOMEWHAT VERY FIGURES POSITIVE POSITIVE NEUTRAL NEGATIVE NEGATIVE WHO? MEAN  Bill Walker.......14.6%....26.0%....32.1%....10.2%.....4.7%...12.5%...2.406 Forrest Dunbar.....7.6%....16.7%....26.5%.....3.5%.....2.5%...43.2%...2.412 Don Young.........19.4%....30.0%....18.0%....14.9%....17.7%....0.0%...2.184 Mark Begich.......23.8%....24.3%....10.7%....18.5%....22.7%....0.0%...2.079 Sean Parnell......17.0%....30.2%....17.1%....15.3%....20.5%....0.0%...2.079 Dan Sullivan......16.8%....26.8%....14.6%....20.4%....21.4%....0.0%...1.973 (ROTATE ORDER) 3. If the November 4th 2014 General  election for Governor of Alaska were held today and the candidates are.... For whom would you vote for Governor of Alaska? GENERAL 2014 GUBERNATORIAL FREQUENCY PERCENT PERCENT  Sean Parnell, Republican,..........179........44.3%.....48.5% Bill Walker, unaffiliated,.........171........42.5%.....46.5% Carolyn Care, Libertarian, and......15.........3.8%......4.1% J.R. Myers, Alaska Constitution,.....3.........0.8%......0.9% Don't know..........................35.........8.6%....MISSING PARNELL-WALKER STRENGTHS FREQUENCY PERCENT Strong Parnell...........................64........15.9% Moderate Parnell.........................67........16.7% Leaning Parnell..........................47........11.7% Undecided................................35.........8.6% Leaning Walker...........................42........10.5% Moderate Walker..........................27.........6.6% Strong Walker...........................102........25.3% Carolyn Care.............................15.........3.8% J.R. Myers................................3.........0.8%    Page 4 PARNELL-WALKER STRENGTHS FREQUENCY PERCENT Str-Mod Parnell.........................131........32.6% Leaning Parnell..........................47........11.7% Undecided................................35.........8.6% Leaning Walker...........................42........10.5% Str-Mod Walker..........................129........31.9% Carolyn Care.............................15.........3.8% J.R. Myers................................3.........0.8% PARNELL-WALKER TARGET VOTERS FREQUENCY PERCENT Str-Mod Parnell.........................131........32.6% Target voters...........................124........30.9% Str-Mod Walker..........................129........31.9% Carolyn Care.............................15.........3.8% J.R. Myers................................3.........0.8% 4. If the November 4th 2014 General  election for U.S. House were held today and the candidates are.... For whom would you vote for U.S. House? GENERAL 2014 U.S. CONGRESSIONAL FREQUENCY PERCENT PERCENT  Don Young, Republican,.............209........51.9%.....55.7% Forrest Dunbar, Democrat, and......142........35.2%.....37.8% Jim McDermott, Libertarian,.........25.........6.1%......6.5% Don't know..........................27.........6.8%....MISSING YOUNG-DUNBAR STRENGTHS FREQUENCY PERCENT Strong Young.............................70........17.5% Moderate Young...........................95........23.6% Leaning Young............................44........10.8% Undecided................................27.........6.8% Leaning Dunbar...........................33.........8.3% Moderate Dunbar..........................29.........7.2% Strong Dunbar............................80........19.8% Jim McDermott............................25.........6.1% YOUNG-DUNBAR STRENGTHS FREQUENCY PERCENT Str-Mod Young...........................165........41.1% Leaning Young............................44........10.8% Undecided................................27.........6.8%
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