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Impacts module final

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1. [Impacts]<br />We know climate change is happening (and it could get a lot worse)<br /> 2. Overview<br />Climate change is real, and it’s happening…
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  • 1. [Impacts]<br />We know climate change is happening (and it could get a lot worse)<br />
  • 2. Overview<br />Climate change is real, and it’s happening now<br />What’s in store for the future?<br />
  • 3. Climate change is real and it’s happening now:what are some examples?<br />
  • 4. SOME THINGS ARE ALREADY CHANGING IN VERY REAL AND MEASURABLE WAYS, LIKE:- TEMPERATURE- ARCTIC SEA ICE- GLACIERS- SEA LEVEL RISE<br />
  • 5. The top ten hottest years on record have all been in the past 15 years<br />
  • 6. The Arctic is currently warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world<br />Between 1979 and 2007, the Arctic lost over 40% of its ice<br />
  • 7. Glaciers are also melting before our eyes<br />
  • 8. MUIR & RIGGS GLACIER 1941<br />
  • 9. MUIR & RIGGS GLACIER 2004<br />
  • 10. PEDERSEN GLACIER, AK 1920<br />
  • 11. PEDERSEN GLACIER, AK 2005<br />
  • 12. In early 2009, researchers in Bolivia went to measure the Chacaltaya glacier to find that it had completely disappeared.<br />
  • 13. In a 2005 survey of 442 glaciers, 398 - or 90% - were retreating.<br />
  • 14. SEA LEVELS AREALREADY RISING<br />Three Year Average<br />Satellite Altimetry<br />Sea Level Change (cm)<br />Year<br />
  • 15. "For the Carteret Islanders, we cannot wait any longer because the islands are shrinking. When it's high tide, we can see salt water bubbling out of the land."<br />Photo: Toby Parkinson/Oxfam<br />-Ursula Rakova, landowner on Huene Island, now divided into two smaller islands and disappearing fast<br />15<br />
  • 16. Weather patterns are already changing: HAVE YOU BEEN NOTICING “WILD WEATHER” IN YOUR COMMUNITY, OR AROUND THE WORLD?<br />
  • 17. MAJOR FLOODS PER DECADE<br />number of major floods per decade<br />
  • 18. Cambodia: "In the last three years we have experienced unpredictable floods. We plant but we can't harvest; it has never happened like this before,” said Mom Mayas, a 47-year-old mother of six.<br />“After being hit three years in a row I have no money left to buy seeds to plant next year. I have very little hope now, but I am doing whatever I can so the rest of my children can go to school and maybe have a better life."<br />Photo: Jack Picone/Oxfam<br />More stories: www.oxfamamerica.org<br />
  • 19. Scientists are now observing twice the number of tornadoes in the US in April<br />
  • 20. The Amazon has just gone through its second “100-year drought” in the last 5 years.<br />
  • 21. “The fact remains that there is 4 percent more water vaporavailable both to power individual storms and to produce intense rainfall from them. Climate change is present in every single meteorological event, in that these events are occurring within a baseline atmospheric environment that has shifted in favor of more intense weather events.”<br />- Michael Mann, climate scientist at U Penn<br />
  • 22. In other words…<br />As the atmosphere heats up<br />It holds more moisture<br />And produces more intense storms.<br />
  • 23. By some estimates, extreme weather caused by climate change is already killing 150,000 people per year<br />
  • 24. 2<br />What’s in store if we don’t act now?<br />
  • 25. Let’s be clear: We are headed for a 4 degree+ world right now<br />Chart showing:<br />0.76 deg C warming now<br />1 deg Celsius warming if we stop emitting NOW.<br />2-3 deg warming by 2060 if emissions grow at current rate<br />5-6 degree eventual temperature increase under “business as usual”<br />
  • 26. To give you an idea of where we are currently headed, a world with a 3-4 degree Celsius rise in average temperature would see impacts like:<br /> in Africa, 75–220 million people would face more severe water shortages by 2020<br />In Central and South Asia, crop yields are predicted to fall by up to 30 per cent<br /> By the 2050s in Latin America, 50% of agricultural lands are very likely to besubjected to desertification andsalinization<br />1.5-2.5 billion more people worldwide exposed to Dengue fever<br />50% decrease in water flowing through rivers in the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts of South America, producing water shortages for millions<br />
  • 27. Many regions of the world will experience severe drought<br />A1B Storyline. Red and Pink = “severe drought.” Blue is wet relative to 1950-79 mean.<br />
  • 28. Droughts will have major impacts on our ability to grow food(Source: William Cline, Center for Global Development)<br />% Change in Productivity<br />
  • 29. THE DISRUPTION OF FOOD PRODUCTION<br />“<br />-What we're coming to understand is that of all the horrible things human beings have figured out to do, nothing will repress more people more powerfully than removing the basic physical stability of the planet that the poorest and most vulnerable people depend on in order to get their daily bread.<br /> ”<br />– Bill McKibben, activist, author, environmentalist, and co-founder of 350.org<br />
  • 30. Our ecosystems: Scientists estimate climate change could wipe out 20-30% of species worldwide by the end of the century.<br />
  • 31. Impacts on the ocean<br />Sea level rise<br />Ocean acidification<br />Sea surface temperature increase<br />Change or halting of ocean currents <br />
  • 32. Implication of 1 meter rise<br />Nile Delta 2000<br />Nile Delta with 1 meter sea level rise<br />IPCC-AR4: “0.18 – 0.59 m by 2100”<br />Post-AR4: “0.8 to 2.4 m by 2100“ (Hansen: “several meters“)<br />32<br />
  • 33. IT AFFECTS OURHEALTH:<br />“<br />Global Warming Increases Malaria, Dengue Fever Threat, UN Says.<br /> ”<br />- Bloomberg, Nov. 27, 2007<br />
  • 34. A HUMAN RIGHTS CRISIS AND INSTABILITY<br />“<br />Climate change could force 1 BILLION from their homes by 2050.<br /> ”<br />- April 30, 2008, The Independent.<br />
  • 35. It Will THREATEN GLOBAL STABILITY:<br />“<br />Climate change will draw ever-deeper lines of division and conflict in international relations… over the distribution of resources, especially water and land.<br /> ”<br />- Report: World in Transition<br />
  • 36. severe impacts on LOCAL ECONOMIES<br />
  • 37. STERN REVIEW, 2006<br />“<br />The most comprehensive review ever carried out on the economics of climate change warns that global warming could inflict worldwide disruption as great as that caused by the two World Wars and the Great Depression.<br /> ”<br />- Environmental News Service<br />
  • 38. Again, we could see impacts much worse due to possible feedback loops and tipping points like:<br />The desertification of the Amazon rainforest<br />Melting of the Greenland ice sheet<br />Melting of West Antarctic ice sheet<br />Methane release from massive permafrost melt<br />Monsoon shift in India<br />
  • 39. One example: the Collapse of the Amazon Rainforest<br />Scientists predict significant reduction to the amount of rainfall over the Amazon Rainforest<br />This will cause a positive feedback between stressed plant life and CO2 release<br />The Amazon will no longer be able to absorb as much CO2<br />The Amazon contains 50% of the world’s biodiversity<br />
  • 40. But there’s reason to hope:<br /><ul><li>We have the solutions to cut emissions
  • 41. We have the ability to organize a movement </li></li></ul><li>More information<br />Grist Denier argument FAQ<br />World Health Organization<br />Oxfam International<br />IPCC Website<br />Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change<br />
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