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Internet trends-2013

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1. INTERNET TRENDSD11 CONFERENCE5 / 29 / 2013Mary Meeker / Liang Wu 2. Outlineã Key Internet Trends – Growth Continuesã Re-Imagination – Being Re-Imagined &…
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  • 1. INTERNET TRENDSD11 CONFERENCE5 / 29 / 2013Mary Meeker / Liang Wu
  • 2. Outline• Key Internet Trends – Growth Continues• Re-Imagination – Being Re-Imagined & Uploaded• Mobile – Aggressive Momentum• Computing – Yet Another Platform Change…• Lots to Learn from China – Volume + Innovation• Most Enabled Entrepreneurs Ever?• So, You Want to Be a Public Company?• High-Skilled Immigration – Perspective• Appendix– Re-Imagination is Alive & Well– Traditional Industries Being Re-Imagined– USA, Inc.2
  • 3. KEY INTERNET TRENDS –GROWTH CONTINUES3
  • 4. Note: *All data (except China) as of 6/12, 2.4B global Internet users and 8% Y/Y growth rate based on the latest available data. ChinaInternet user data as of 12/12, per CNNIC. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, internetworldstats.com.2.4B Global Internet Users in 2012* –8% Y/Y Growth*, Driven by Emerging Markets4Rank Country2008-2012Internet UserAdds (MMs)2012 InternetUsers (MMs) Y/Y GrowthPopulationPenetration1 China 264 564 10% 42%2 India 88 137 26 113 Indonesia 39 55 58 234 Iran 35 42 205 555 Russia 33 70 6 496 Nigeria 31 48 15 307 Philippines 28 34 32 358 Brazil 27 88 6 459 Mexico 19 42 9 3710 USA 18 244 3 7811 Argentina 17 28 57 6812 Egypt 17 30 11 3813 Colombia 14 25 39 5414 Turkey 13 35 17 4715 Vietnam 12 31 7 35Top 15 654 1,473 15% 34%World 902 2,406 8% 34%
  • 5. 6%14%42%26%12%23%10%43%22%3%0%10%20%30%40%50%Print Radio TV Internet Mobile%ofTotalMediaConsumptionTimeorAdvertisingSpendingTime Spent Ad Spend% of Time Spent in Media vs. % of Advertising Spending, USA 2012~$20B+Opportunityin USAMaterial Upside for Mobile Ad Spend vs. Mobile UsageNote: *Internet advertising reached $37B in USA in 2012 per IAB, Mobile advertising reached $4B per eMarketer. Print includes newspaperand magazine. $20B opportunity calculated assuming Internet and Mobile ad spend share equal their respective time spent share. Source:Time spent and ad spend share data based on eMarketer (adjusted to exclude outdoors / classified media spend), 12/12.Internet Ad= $37B*Mobile Ad= $4B*5
  • 6. 80% of Top Ten Global Internet Properties ‘Made in USA’…81% of Users Outside AmericaTop 10 Internet Properties by Global Monthly Unique Visitors, 2/13Source: comScore Global, 2/13. 60 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200Baidu.comTencentGlam MediaAppleAmazon.comWikipediaYahoo!FacebookMicrosoftGoogleMonthly Unique Visitors (MMs)USA UsersInternational Users
  • 7. Global Smartphone Operating Systems ‘Made in USA’…88% Share from 5% Six Years Ago2005 20120%20%40%60%80%100%MarketShareofSmartphoneOSOther OSiOSAndroidWindows PhoneBlackBerry OSLinuxNokia SymbianGlobal Smartphone Operating System Market Share(by Units Shipped), 2005 vs. 2012Source: 2005 data per Gartner, 2012 data per IDC. 7
  • 8. RE-IMAGINATION -BEING RE-IMAGINED & UPLOADED @AN ACCELERATING PACE8
  • 9. Long Ago, People Danced @ Concerts,Now They Video / Click / Share / Tweet…1990s92010sSource: Left image – 123RF.com. Right image – amadarose.co.uk.
  • 10. Today = You Can Run, But You Can’t HideSource: Quote – Joe Louis (American heavyweight boxer), 1946. Left image – Peter Steiner, cartoonbank.com, The New Yorker, 1993.Right image – Tumblr user cachorro no computador. 102013On the Internet, everybody knows you’re a dog.1993On the Internet, nobody knows you’re a dog.
  • 11. World’s Content is Increasingly Findable + Shared + Tagged -Digital Info Created + Shared up 9x in Five Years024682005 2007 2009 2011 2013E 2015EDigitalInformationCreated&Shared(zettabytes) Amount of global digital information created & shared– from documents to pictures to tweets –grew 9x in five years to nearly 2 zettabytes* in 2011, per IDC.Note: * 1 zettabyte = 1 trillion gigabytes. Source: IDC report “Extracting Value from Chaos” 6/11.Global Digital Information Created & Shared, 2005 – 2015E11
  • 12. Media + Data Uploading + Sharing from Mobiles =Ramping Fast & Still Early StageExplosiveGrowth, ButStill EarlyStageRampingVery FastEmerging EmergingSource: Far right Illustration – Eric Prommelt. 12
  • 13. Photos…13
  • 14. Photos = 500MM+ Uploaded & Shared Per Day,Growth Accelerating, on Trend to Rise 2x Y/Y…01002003004005006002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013YTD#ofPhotosUploaded&SharedperDay(MM)FlickrSnapchatInstagramFacebookDaily Number of Photos Uploaded & Shared on Select Platforms, 2005-2013YTDSource: KPCB estimates based on publicly disclosed company data. 14
  • 15. Short-Term Sharing Exploding – Snapchat Growth FromContent That Disappears, Up >2x in 2 Months0204060801001201401605/12 10/12 12/12 2/13 3/13 4/13#ofPhotosSharedperDay(MM)Snapchat Daily Number of ‘Snaps’5/12 – 4/13Choose How Long Your‘Snap’ Lives15Source: Snapchat.
  • 16. Video…16
  • 17. Video = 100 Hours Per Minute Uploaded to YouTube,Up from ~Nada Six Years Ago0204060801001206/07 1/09 5/09 3/10 11/10 5/11 5/12 5/13HoursofVideoUploadedperMinuteYouTube Hours of Video Uploaded per Minute, 6/07 – 5/1317Source: YouTube.
  • 18. Video (Short-Form + Persistent) = Ramping FastDropcam ($149 ASP)More VideoUploaded per Minute Than YouTubeTwitter Vine6 Second Videos2x M/M Growth18Vine iOS App Monthly Active Users (MAUs)as % of Total USA iPhone MAUs, 1/13-4/130%2%4%6%8%1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13%ShareofUSAiPhoneMonthlyActiveUsersSource: Onavo, Dropcam.
  • 19. Opt-In Video – ‘Big Brother’ Meets Big Mother?1930% of Dropcam viewers used Talk Back to interact over past 2 weeks.When I am on the road, I still join my husband in singing bedtime lullabies using Dropcam,a Wi-Fi video monitoring camera that streams to my phone and computer.– Randi ZuckerbergParents Can See & Talk With Children While Away From HomeSource: Dropcam,5/13. Mashable, 4/13
  • 20. Sound…20
  • 21. Sound =Emerging as Voice Comes Back to Phones…SoundCloud11 Hours of SoundUploaded per MinuteTencent WeChat400MM+ Users, 4x Y/Y21Source: SoundCloud, Tencent.
  • 22. Data…22
  • 23. Win-Win-Win Sharing = Growing Quickly –You Help Me, I Help You, We Help Others23Waze• 48MM Users, +2x Y/Y• 1B+ Miles Driven perMonth w/ Waze OpenJawbone UPPer Day…• Billions of Steps• 700K+ Hours of Sleep• 5x App Interactions per UserYelp• 102MM Users, +43% Y/Y• 39MM User-GeneratedReviews, +42% Y/YSource: Company data.
  • 24. Fitness Data on Mobile + Wearable Devices =~2x Month-on-Month Growth24010203040506010/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13#ofAPICalls(MM)MyFitnessPal - # of API Calls*, 10/12 – 4/13Note: *API calls are data request from fitness devices (such as Jawbone UP) and GPS-enabled activitytracking apps (such as Endomondo / Runtastic) that partner with MyFitnessPal. Source: MyFitnessPal.
  • 25. Health Outcomes –Behavior (at 40%) is Biggest Driver of Premature Death40%30%15%5%10%Behavioral Patterns* Genetic CompositionSocial Circumstances Environmental ExposureHealth CareUSA Proportional Contribution to Premature Death, 2007*Smoking: 44%, Obesity & Inactivity 37%, Alcohol 9%, Other 10%.Source: “We Can Do Better — Improving the Health of the American People” - The New England Journal of Medicine, 2007. 25
  • 26. Sharing…26
  • 27. Which of the Following Social Media Do You Use?270% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%FoursquareTumblrInstagramMySpacePinterestLinkedInGoogle+TwitterYouTubeFacebook20122011Social Media – Facebook Leads, YouTube + Twitter + Google++ Pinterest + Instagram + Tumblr Rising FastSource: Frank N. Magid Associates, “Facebook Fatigue - Fact or Fiction?”, March 2013.Based on a study of 2K social media users aged 12-64 who were asked “Which of the Following Social Media Do You Use?”2011 Pinterest and Instagram data from 9/12 / 4/12.
  • 28. Americans = Sharing Underachievers…0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%28% of Respondents Indicating They Share ‘Everything’ or ‘Most Things’ Online, 5/13World Average = 24%Note: Survey question is ‘describe how much you share online (including status updates, feelings, photos, videos, links, etc.)’Source: Ipsos Open Thinking Exchange, via Marketingcharts.com.15%
  • 29. Unprecedented Transparency inTime of Tremendous Global Uncertainty…Ramp in Always-On Connected Global Citizens• 1.1B+ global active Facebook users…68% on mobiles…60% log indaily…with average 200+ friends… 350MM photos uploaded daily…*• It’s hard to hide - ‘truth’ can be a photo or video / click–send away.• ‘Clean, well-lighted place to do business?’ ‘People are basically good?’• Perhaps the world is on cusp of being safer than ever?• There are lots of sacrifices. This is new terrain.• Only time will tell how all this plays out…* Source: Facebook, 5/13. 29
  • 30. MOBILE –AGGRESSIVE MOMENTUM30
  • 31. Smartphones = Extraordinary Attributes -Connected + Excited + Curious / Interested + ProductiveSource: IDC, 3/13. Facebook-sponsored research asked smartphone owners how an array of social andcommunication activities on their phones made them feel. Most owners use ~7.4 social and communications apps ontheir phones. Responses are indexed above.3102468RelativeSentimentIndex(10=Strongest,0=Weakest)USA Smartphone User Relative Sentiment Index (10 = Strongest, 0 = Weakest), 3/13When Asked How Social and Communication Activities on Smartphones Made You Feel
  • 32. Mobile Traffic as % of Global Internet Traffic =Growing 1.5x per Year & Likely to Maintain Trajectory or Accelerate0%5%10%15%20%25%30%12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14%ofInternetTrafficGlobal Mobile Traffic as % of Total Internet Traffic, 12/08 – 5/13(with Trendline Projection to 5/15E)0.9%in 5/092.4%in 5/1015%in 5/13Source: StatCounter Global Stats, 5/13. Note that PC-based Internet data bolstered by streaming. 326%in 5/1110%in 5/12TrendlineE E
  • 33. China –Mobile Internet Access Surpassed PC, Q2:120%20%40%60%80%100%6/07 12/07 6/08 12/08 6/09 12/09 6/10 12/10 6/11 12/11 6/12 12/12%ofTotalInternetUsersinChinavia Desktop PCvia Mobile Phone28%71%75%96%% of Chinese Internet Users Accessing the Webvia Desktop PCs vs. via Mobile Phones, 6/07 – 12/12Source: CNNIC, 1/13. 33
  • 34. 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 3/13NHNSearchQuery(Indexed)PC QueryMobile QueryS. Korea –Mobile Search Queries Surpassed PC, Q4:12Source: NHN Corporate Presentation, as of 5/13. 34NHN Korea Search Query Trend (Indexed), PC vs. Mobile, 1/11 – 3/13
  • 35. 0%10%20%30%40%50%1/11 4/11 7/11 10/11 1/12 4/12 7/12 10/12 1/13GrouponNorthAmericaTransactionsCompletedonMobile(%)% of Groupon North America Transactions Completed on Mobile,1/11 – 3/13Groupon N. America –45% of Transactions on Mobile, Up from <15% Two Years Ago35Source: Groupon, as of 3/13.14%45%
  • 36. Facebook – Mobile Has Helped Drive Users & Revenue,Q1 Growth = Revenue +43% Y/Y, Mobile Users +54% (to 68%), ARPU + 15%Q2:11 Q3:11 Q4:11 Q1:12 Q2:12 Q3:12 Q4:12 Q1:13Ad Revenue ($MM) $776 $798 $943 $872 $992 $1,086 $1,329 $1,245Y/Y Growth 83% 77% 44% 37% 28% 36% 41% 43%% from Mobile -- -- -- -- -- 14% 23% 30%Mobile Active Users(MAUs) (MM) 325 376 432 488 543 604 680 751Y/Y Growth 110% 92% 76% 69% 67% 61% 57% 54%% of Total MAUs 44% 47% 51% 54% 57% 60% 64% 68%Annualized Ad ARPU ($) $4.37 $4.15 $4.59 $4.00 $4.28 $4.43 $5.15 $4.60Y/Y Growth 18% 19% 1% 1% (2%) 7% 12% 15%Q/Q Growth 11% (5%) 11% (13%) 7% 4% 16% (11%)Source: Facebook. 36
  • 37. Facebook =Rising Mobile ARPU Has Offset Declining Desktop ARPU, So Far0$2$4$63/11 6/11 9/11 12/11 3/12 6/12 9/12 12/12 3/13AnnualizedAdARPU($)Desktop Ad ARPU Mobile Ad ARPU Overall Ad ARPUFacebook Annualized Ad ARPU, Desktop vs. Mobile, 3/11-3/13Source: Facebook. 37
  • 38. COMPUTING –YET ANOTHER PLATFORM CHANGE…38
  • 39. We Just Began to Figure OutSmartphones…39
  • 40. Note: *Japan data per Morgan Stanley Research estimate. Source: Informa.2013E Global Smartphone Stats: Subscribers = 1,492MM Penetration = 21% Growth = 31%Smartphone Subscriber Growth = Remains Rapid1.5B Subscribers, 31% Growth, 21% Penetration in 2013E40Rank Country2013ESmartphoneSubs (MM)Smartphoneas % ofTotal SubsSmartphoneSub Y/YGrowth Rank Country2013ESmartphoneSubs (MM)Smartphoneas % ofTotal SubsSmartphoneSub Y/YGrowth1 China 354 29% 31% 16 Spain 20 33% 14%2 USA 219 58 28 17 Philippines 19 18 343 Japan* 94 76 15 18 Canada 19 63 214 Brazil 70 23 28 19 Thailand 18 21 305 India 67 6 52 20 Turkey 17 24 306 UK 43 53 22 21 Argentina 15 25 377 Korea 38 67 18 22 Malaysia 15 35 198 Indonesia 36 11 34 23 South Africa 14 20 269 France 33 46 27 24 Netherlands 12 58 2710 Germany 32 29 29 25 Taiwan 12 37 6011 Russia 30 12 38 26 Poland 11 20 2512 Mexico 21 19 43 27 Iran 10 10 4013 Saudi Arabia 21 38 36 28 Egypt 10 10 3414 Italy 21 23 25 29 Sweden 9 60 1615 Australia 20 60 27 30 Hong Kong 8 59 31
  • 41. Smartphone Usage =Still Early Stage With Tremendous (3-4x) Upside01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000Smartphone Mobile PhoneGlobalUsers(MM)Global Smartphone vs. Mobile Phone Users, 2013ESource: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Note: One user may have multiple devices - actual number of actual smartphone + mobile phone devices in use (subscription numbers) maybe higher than user numbers.1.5BSmartphoneUsers5B+ MobilePhone Users41
  • 42. 55MM UnitsApple Growing Rapidly (1.4x Share Gain)…Samsung Up 7x Over ~2 Years22%29%49%Q4:124216% 4%80%Q1:10AppleSamsungOther219MM UnitsSource: IDC, Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of 4/13.Global Smartphone Unit Market Share
  • 43. …Then AlongCame Tablets…43
  • 44. 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12GlobalUnitShipments(000)Quarters After LaunchiPad iPhone020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,0000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12GlobalUnitShipments(000)Quarters After LaunchiPad iPhoneFirst 12 Quarters Cumulative Unit Shipments, iPhone vs. iPadSource: Apple, as of CQ1:13 (12 quarters post iPad launch).Launch Dates: iPhone (6/29/07), iPad (4/3/10).Tablet Growth =More Rapid than Smartphones, iPad = ~3x iPhone Growth44
  • 45. Tablet Shipments =Surpassed Desktop PCs & Notebooks in Q4:12, < 3 Years from IntroGlobal PC (Desktop / Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by QuarterQ1:95 – Q1:13Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks.Source: Katy Huberty, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research. Gartner. Data as of 4/13.0102030405060Q1:95 Q1:97 Q1:99 Q1:01 Q1:03 Q1:05 Q1:07 Q1:09 Q1:11 Q1:13GlobalUnitsShipped(MMs)Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets45
  • 46. Demand for Large-Screen Computing Devices is Robust, ButMix Favors Tablets, Not Notebooks & DesktopsGlobal PC (Desktop / Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by QuarterQ1:1995 – Q1:2013Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks.Source: Katy Huberty, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research. Gartner. Data and Estimates as of 4/13.0204060801001201401601Q95 1Q97 1Q99 1Q01 1Q03 1Q05 1Q07 1Q09 1Q11 1Q13GlobalUnitsShipped(MMs)Desktop PCsNotebook PCsTablets46
  • 47. Top Vendors Largely Same in Desktop & Notebook Cycles –Very Different in Tablet (& Smartphone) Cycles%ShareCompaq 13%Dell 11%HP 8%IBM 7%NEC 4%Others 57%%ShareHP 19%Acer 17%Dell 12%Lenovo 10%ASUS 8%Others 34%%ShareApple 51%Samsung 13%Amazon 8%ASUS 5%Lenovo 1%Others 20%Desktop PCMarket Share2000Notebook PCMarket Share2010TabletMarket Share2012Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks.Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Gartner. Data as of 4/13. 47%ShareSamsung 30%Apple 19%Sony 5%ZTE 5%BlackBerry 5%Others 37%SmartphoneMarket Share2012
  • 48. An Unusual Pattern…In Two Computing Cycles…1) Smartphones2) Tablets…Entering a Third Cycle…3) Wearables / Drivables /Flyables / Scannables48
  • 49. Image Source: Computersciencelab.com, Wikipedia, IBM, Apple, Google, NTT docomo, Google, Jawbone, Pebble.Technology Cycles Have Tended to Last Ten YearsTechnology Cycles – Still Early Cycle on Smartphones + Tablets,Now Wearables Coming on Strong, Faster than Typical 10-Year CycleMainframeComputing1960sPersonalComputing1980sDesktop InternetComputing1990sMobile InternetComputing2000sMiniComputing1970sWearable /EverywhereComputing2014+Others?49
  • 50. Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone / Internet users reached 1B in 2002 / 2005 respectively;Source: ITU, Morgan Stanley Research.New Major Technology Cycles = Often Support 10x MoreUsers & Devices, Driven by Lower Price + Improved Functionality1101001,00010,000100,0001960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Devices/Users(MMinLogScale)1MM+Units100MM+Units10B+Units???10MM+UnitsComputing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960 – 2020E1B+ Units /Users50
  • 51. …Wearables(with Sensors)…51
  • 52. Smartphone Users Reach to Phone ~150x a Day…Could be Hands-Free with Wearables14335688912131822230 5 10 15 20 25OtherSearchWebCalendarNews & AlertsAlarmCameraSocial MediaGamingMusicChecking TimeVoice CallMessaging# of Times Typical User Checks Phone per DayOther includes voicemail, charging, and miscellaneous activities. Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2013. 52
  • 53. Hands-FreeAlways-OnEnvironment-AwareConnectedAttention-GettingDevelopmentPlatformSensor-Enabled Wearable Attributes• GPS• Accelerometer• Compass• Camera• Microphone• Other Sensors• Wi-Fi• 3G / 4G• Bluetooth• NFC• Low powerconsumption• Instant wake• Backgroundworking /sensing• Less distractingwhen receivingalerts /reminders /messages• 3rd party apps• API partners• Accessories• Voice / gesturecontrol53Source: MIT, KPCB.
  • 54. Some People Laugh at Wearables…54Source: Saturday Night Live, 5/13.And ‘SNL’ Does Rule… ;)
  • 55. …Some People Laughed at PC & Internet55There is no reasonanyone would want acomputer in their home.- Ken Olsen(Founder)Digital Equipment1977May 1999
  • 56. …Drivables…56
  • 57. A Car or a Computer on Four Wheels?57
  • 58. Pandora Usage – Car / TV / Appliance Usage (~13% Now) toLikely Surpass PC (21%) Usage in 2 Years0%20%40%60%80%100%4/09 10/09 4/10 10/10 4/11 10/11 4/12 10/12 4/13ShareofTotalListeningHours(%)Other* (Car / TV, etc.)PCMobile + TabletShare of Pandora Quarterly Listening Hours,PC vs. Mobile + Tablet vs. Other*, 4/09 – 4/13**58Source: Pandora. Note that *listening share data for other non-mobile / non-PC devices (car / TV, etc) are KPCBestimates. **Pandora fiscal year ends Jan 31, so FQ4:13 ended Jan 31, 2013.
  • 59. …Flyables…59
  • 60. It’s a Bird, It’s a Plane, It’s a Mini-Drone…Use Cases of Low-Cost Drones60AgricultureGPS-Enabled Photos HelpPinpoint Potential CropDamage Early OnSports /EntertainmentUnique Angle of View ProvidesInsights for Training +Broadcast AudiencePublic Safety /Disaster Relief*Providing Aerial Video Coverage/ First-Aid / Other Supplies inChallenging ConditionsSource: Left image – Shutterstock; Middle image – Dronereport.net; *Right image – Drone carrying cameras + othersensors being deployed during search & rescue mission of 7.0-magnitude earthquake in Lushan, China (4/13).
  • 61. Scannables –Codes / Tags + Cameras / Sensors61
  • 62. QR Codes =Scan & Be Scanned to Get Stuff…62SCANQuick Scan w/ SmartphoneFor Info on Nutrition / Product /Price…BE SCANNEDSmartphone-Generated CodesFor Boarding Pass / Ticket /Payment / Rewards…
  • 63. China - Follow UK Embassy Weibo Account byScanning QR Code Outside Embassy in Beijing63
  • 64. QR Code Scanning = Up 4x Y/Y in China,Offline Businesses Driving Online Connections02468103/12 3/13ChinaMonthlyQRCodesScanned(MMs)PaymentInformation (NutritionInfo, Business CardExchange...)Promotions (Billboard,Advertising…)Passcode (Coupons,Rewards, Tickets,Check-Ins...)42%33%China Monthly QR Codes Scanned by Use Case, 3/12 vs. 3/13Note: * March 2012 use case breakdown not available. Source: Imageco, China QR Code Market Study, 2013.We believe data are understated. 642MM*9MM22%3%
  • 65. 65Tencent WeChat (400MM+ Users, +4X Y/Y, China) –Mobile Communication + Local Commerce via QR CodesBusinesses…Use QR code +com
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