New Forecasting Techniques

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  Dr. C. Lightner Fayetteville State University 1 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES Chapter 16 Qualitative Approaches to Forecasting Quantitative Approaches to Forecasting The Components of a Time Series Using Smoothing Methods in Forecasting Measures of Forecast Accuracy Using Trend Projection in Forecasting Using Regression Analysis in Forecasting  Dr. C. Lightner Fayetteville State University 2 Forecasting Introduction  An essential aspect of managing any organization is planning for the future. Organizations employ forecasting techniques to determine future inventory, costs, capacities, and interest rate changes. There are two basic approaches to forecasting: -Qualitative -Quantitative  Dr. C. Lightner Fayetteville State University 3 Qualitative Approaches to Forecasting Delphi Approach  –  A panel of experts, each of whom is physically separated from the others and is anonymous, is asked to respond to a sequential series of questionnaires.  –  After each questionnaire, the responses are tabulated and the information and opinions of the entire group are made known to each of the other panel members so that they may revise their previous forecast response.  – The process continues until some degree of consensus is achieved.  Dr. C. Lightner Fayetteville State University 4 Qualitative Approaches (continued) Scenario Writing  – Scenario writing consists of developing a conceptual scenario of the future based on a well defined set of assumptions.  –  After several different scenarios have been developed, the decision maker determines which is most likely to occur in the future and makes decisions accordingly.
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