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Papers and Proceedings of the Eighth Annual North American Conference

International Association of Energy Economists IA EE Papers and Proceedings of the Eighth Annual North American Conference The Changing World Energy Economy November 19-21, 1986 Massachusetts Institute
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International Association of Energy Economists IA EE Papers and Proceedings of the Eighth Annual North American Conference The Changing World Energy Economy November 19-21, 1986 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, Massachusetts UB/TIB Hannover Edited by David O. Wood May 1987 Table of Contents 1 Editor's Introduction THE MANY MARKETS OF WORLD OIL i ix David Cohan, Managing Economic Risks 17 from Environmental Hazards* Mark Farber, A Risk Analysis Case Study at 17 Union Electric* M.A. Adelman, The Many Markets of World 1 Oil COGENERATION, WHOLESALE MARKETS, AND EMERGING COMPETITION IN THE U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY David W. Penn, Municipal Wholesale 5 Customers and the Importance of Transmission* Jerry Pfeffer, the Role of Independent Power 5 Suppliers in a More Competitive Bulk Power Market: A Utility Perspective* D. Eugene Simmons, Cogeneration, 6 Wheeling and Competition Impacts on Electric Utilities* EFFICIENCY INVESTMENTS AS ENERGY SUPPLY Charles J. Cicchetti and Suellen M. 6 Curkendall, Are Energy-Efficiency Programs Worth It? ELECTRICITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 11 EFFECTS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE 1986 OIL PRICE SHOCK Dermot Gately, The 1986 Oil Price Shocks: 11 What Happened and What Did We Learn* Knut Anton Mork, Where's The Boom? The 12 Oil Price Decline and the U.S. Economy in 1986: A Reassessment of the Theories of the 1970's Philip K. Verleger, Jr., The Relation Between 16 the Collapse in Oil Prices, and the Evolution in the Structure of the Oil Market* ELECTRIC UTILITY APPROACHES TO RISK MANAGEMENT Hung-po Chao, Managing Fuel Inventory 17 Risk* Entries marked with an * are abstracts. Darrell A. Smith, Electric Utility Risk 17 Management Practices* PROSPECTS FOR THE U.S. NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY Catherine G. Abbott, Business Strategies to 18 Survive the Shakeout in the Natural Gas Industry* Arlon Tussing, Fundamentals of Gas Supply 18 and Price* CAPACITY DECISIONS AND COST RECOVERY IN THE U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY James M. Coyne, Karen Grubb, Lawrence 18 J. Makovich, and Richard Hilt, The Impacts of an Electric Generating Capacity Shortage Michael A. Einhorn, Hydroelectric 23 Relicensing and Economic Efficiency Chi-Keung Woo, Fixed Cost Recovery under 26 Competition in Electricity Pricing ISSUES IN OIL PRICE VOLATILITY Cutler J. Cleveland, Economic and Physical 31 Measures of Natural Resource Scarcity: Theory and Application to Petroleum Resources in the United States, * Michael Lynch, The Impact of Future Oil 31 Price Paths on Oil Market Vulnerability to Supply Disruptions Ibrahim M. Oweiss, Economics of 36 Petrodollars William E. Zieman, Whither Oil Prices: Will 41 the Roller Coaster Continue? ENERGY INTENSITY IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES Ernst R. Berndt, Naota Sagawa, Takamitsu 44 Sawa, and David O. Wood, Energy Intensity and Productivity in U.S. and Japan Manufacturing Industries* 1 G. Boyd, H.W. Hockeiser, J.F. McDonald, and 45 M. Ross, Energy Intensity in Manufacturing: A Comparison of Historical Results with Forecasts Hilliard G. Huntington and John G. Myers, 49 Sectoral Shift and Industrial Energy Demand: Key Findings from an Energy Modeling Forum Study Robert M. Wendling and Lori Price, The 53 Cydicality of Energy Efficiency Improvement MODELING STUDIES OF NORTH AMERICA NATURAL GAS MARKETS Dale Nesbitt, Robert Marshalla, Stephen 58 Hoos, Gerald Pines, Thomas Woods, Rodney Ridholm, and Gordon Sparks, The Gas Research Institute North American Natural Gas Supply-Demand Model* Richard P. O'Neill, Modeling Natural Gas 58 Markets Using the Gas Analysis Modeling System* Alix Werth, A Management Tool for 58 Forecasting Natural Gas Prices ESTIMATING COSTS OF ACID RAIN CONTROL STRATEGIES James Gruhl, Rick Row, and Michael Miller, 63 Explanation of Differences in U.S. Add Rain Control Cost Forecasts Donald A. Hanson and Knut Alfsen, Why 68 SO2 Emissions Tax Is An Unpopular Policy Instrument: Simulation Results from a General Equilibrium Model of the Norwegian Economy Charles D. Kolstad and Michelle Turnovsky, 73 Estimating Hedonic Price Functions for Coal Thomas D. Veselka and David G. Streets, An 76 Economic Incentives Approach for Reducing Add Rain STUDIES IN ENERGY DEMAND Christopher Garbacz, Gasoline, Diesel, and 81 Motorfuel Demand in Taiwan* Richard H. Hosier and Jeffrey Dowd, 81 Household Fuel Choice in Zimbabwe: An Evaluation of the Energy Ladder Jerry Jackson, Lighting in Commerdal 84 Buildings: An Electridty Resource for the» 1990's* Lee Schipper, Energy Use in the Services 85 Sector: An International View* PETROLEUM RESERVES, PRODUCTION, AND PRICES Theodore R. Breton and Asa M. Janney m, 85 Future Non-OPEC Oil Production William B. Conerly, The Profitability of Oil 90 and Gas Exploration: A Study of U.S. Independents, Steven Plotkin and Karen Lansen, Effects of 95 Low Oil Prices on U.S. Oil Production Thomas J. Woods, Low Prices and the U.S. 100 Oil and Gas Resource Base PRICING AND REGULATION IN LOCAL NATURAL GAS DISTRIBUTION COMPANY MARKETS Mary L. Barcella and Christopher J. 104 Pleastsikas, Customer By-Pass in the Natural Gas and Telecommunications Industries: A Comparative Analysis William G. Foster and Kathleen C. McShane, 108 Market-Oriented Sales and Transportation Rates of Natural Gas Distributors R. Skip Horvath, The Dilemma Facing State 112 Regulators Charles D. Laderoute and William A. Cady, 116 Marginal Cost and Marginal Demand Analysis for Gas Local Distribution Utilities STUDIES IN UNCONVENTIONAL ENERGY PRODUCTS C.H. Petrich, R.A. Cantor, and J.R. Merder, 120 Evaluation of a Large-Scale Charcoal Project in Madagascar: Attacking the Deforestation Problem from the Supply Side Leo da Rocha Ferreira, The Brazilian Alcohol 125 Programme: The Economic Stabilization Plan and Recent Drop in International Oil Prices* Ronaldo Seroa da Motta, Alcohol as Fuel: 125 The Sodal Viability of Ethanol Production in Brazil ii Lee D. Trowbridge, David B. Reister, Jeffrey 130 V. Conopask, and Elizabeth Hicks, Penetration of Unconventional Oil into World Markets STRUCTURAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, AND THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY Gale Boyd and Marc Ross, Energy Intensity of 135 Metals Manufacturing and Effects of Changing Composition of Production Adam Kahane, Electridty Use in U.S. and 140 Japanese Manufacturing J.M. Roop, The Trade Effects of Energy Use in 142 the U.S. Economy: An Input-Output Analysis Adam Rose and C.Y. Chen, An Analysis of 147 the Changing Structure of Energy Use in the U.S.* FUTURE OIL PRICES Robert C. Kelly, Global Energy Balance and 147 the Price of Oil, * Jaime Marquez and Peter Pauly, Bayesian Oil 147 Pricing Robert A. Marshalla and Dale M. Nesbitt, An 151 Economic Analysis of Future World Oil Prices* Fatma Sherif, Dynamic Properties of the 152 EMR Energy and Price Modelling System RESIDENTIAL ENERGY DEMAND R. Baldwin and N.O. Milbank, Energy 156 Effidency in the UK Housing Stock Christopher Garbacz, City and Appliance 160 Specific Residential Electridty Demand* Yehuda L. Klein, An Econometric Model of 160 the Joint Production and Consumption of Residential Space Heat Chi-Kueng Woo, Bradley M. Gray, and 165 Margot E. Carl, Residential Air Conditioning Load Model ENERGY INDUSTRY ORGANIZATION Leonard L. Coburn, Petroleum Companies in 169 a Restructured Environment: Implications for Competition David A. Huettner and Mike Merritt, The 174 Effects of Recent Mergers on the Oil Industry Katherine A. Miller, The Changing Structure 178 of the Energy Industries Samuel A. Van Vactor, Mergers and 183 Acquisitions in the Petroleum Industry INTEGRATED METHODOLOGIES APPLIED TO ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS: RESULTS FROM RECENT STUDIES G. Anandalingam, On the Value of 188 Information for Add Rain Policy Modeling Mark Bernstein and Robert Nolan, 193 Measuring the Impact of Pollution Regulations on Coal-Fired Power Plants Gale Boyd and James Kelley, An Integration 197 Methodology Applied to the National Energy Policy Plan Environmental Assessment H. Dowlatabadi, M. Cushey, E.S. Rubin, and J. 202 Salmento, Optimal Strategies for Reduction of SO2 Emissions from Electric Power Generation: Comparisons of LP and Simulation Models PANEL ON ELECTRIC UTILITY STRATEGIC PLANNING J.P. McCloy, Introduction to Session* 207 Mitch Diamond, The Evolution of Utility 207 Strategic Planning Content* Ken Lange, The Evolution of Strategic 207 Development in One Utility* VALUATION OF ENERGY INDUSTRY PROJECTS AND RESOURCES - I Iulie Aslaksen and Olan Bjerkholt, A 207 Certainty Equivalence Approach to Uncertain Oil Revenues When There is an Option to Delay Oil Production Henry Jacoby and David Laughton, Energy 212 Project Analysis Using Derivative Asset Evaluation iii James L. Paddock, Daniel R. Siegel, and James 217 L. Smith, Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases* PRICE ASYMMETRIES IN ENERGY DEMAND? -1 James L. Sweeney, Price Asymmetries in the 218 Demand for Energy G.C. Watkins and L. Waverman, Oil 223 Demand Elasticities: The Saviour as Well as the Scourge of OPEC? MARKET POWER & ANTITRUST ISSUES IN THE U.S. NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY Harry G. Broadman, Competition in Natural 228 Gas Pipeline Wellhead Supply Purchases* George Hall, Antitrust Issues in the 228 U.S.Natural Gas Industry R. Glen Hubbard and Robert J. Weiner, 232 Effidency Versus Market Power in U.S. Wellhead Natural Gas Markets: Empirical Evidence from Long-Term Contracts* DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS FOR INTERNATIONAL NATURAL GAS TRADE M.A. Adelman, Charles Blitzer, Loren Cox, 233 Michael Lynch, John Parsons and Arthur Wright, Prospects for European Gas Trade Jerome D. Davis, TROLL Gas: Some Possible 238 Implications for Future European Natural Gas Trade* Afsaneh Mashayekhi, Natural Gas Demand 238 Trends in LDCs* Christopher P. Nee, Natural Gas in Japan: 238 Prospects in the North* INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION AND OWNERSHIP IN THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY Allen Jacobs, Economics of Corporate Control 238 in the Petroleum Industry* A RETROSPECTIVE LOOK AT ELECTRIC UTILITY FORECASTING W. Huss, Forecasting in the Electric Utility 239 Industry D. McFadden, The Performance of 243 Econometric Models of Residential Energy Demand* C.R. Nelson, S.C. Peck, and R.G. Uhler, The 243 NERC Fan in Retrospect* FRONTIERSDM ENERGY ANALYSIS -1 Jeffrey A. Dubin, Block Switching in Demand 243 Subject to Declining Block Rates - A New Approach Andrew A. Goett, Daniel McFadden, and 248 Chi-Kueng Woo, Estimation of Customer Valuation of Electridty Service Reliability Using Stated Preference Data* Charles D. Kolstad and Frank A. Wolak, Jr., 248 Using Shapley Values to Measure Market Power in the Western U.S. Coal Market Joseph G. Hirschberg and Dennis J. Aigner, A 253 Classification for Medium and Small Firms by Time-of-Day Electridty Usage INTERNATIONAL ENERGY WORKSHOP: 258 LONG-TERM SUPPLY-DEMAND PROJECTIONS THE ROLE OF CONTRACTING IN ENERGY MARKETS Paul H. Frankel, The Changing Role of Long- 258 Term Contracts in Energy Markets Steven L. Green and Knut Anton Mork, 259 Crude Oil Spot and Offidal Prices and the Effident Market Hypothesis John Parsons, Valuing Forward Purchase 264 Contracts Using Auction Models with an Application to Natural Gas Take-or-Pay Contracts Ingo Vogelsang, The Role of Contracts in 264 International Coal Trade VALUATION OF ENERGY INDUSTRY PROJECTS AND RESOURCES - II David A. Gulley and Geoffrey M. Heal, Oil 269 and Gas Reserves and Economic Research Allen Jacobs, Valuation Through Use of 274 Imperfect Arbitrage in Finandal Claims to Create Synthetic Assets* iv David Nissen, Economic Accounting for 274 Project Value Arthur L. Smith, Reshuffling the Decks of 279 Domestic Reserves: Are Zealous Acquireers Picking Clean the Bones? REGULATION, CONTRACTING AND ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN NATURAL GAS WELLHEAD AND PIPELINE MARKETS Vickey Dancy, Joe Dancy, and Chris Pearson, 283 FERC Order 451 and the Legal Duty to Market Natural Gas William F. Hederman, Jr., Progress Under 287 FERC Order No. 436: How Far Has the Square Peg Gotten in the Round Hole? J. Rodney Lemon, Minimizing Risk in 290 Contracting for Natural Gas Supply and Transmission Capadty David W. South and Ross C. Hemphill, Rate 295 Design for Natural Gas Pipelines: Opportunities, Prospects, and Economic Effidency* THE EMF-8 STUDY: INDUSTRIAL ENERGY DEMAND, CONSERVATION AND INTERFUEL SUBSTITUTION UNDER ALTERNATIVE ENERGY FUTURES David B. Reister, Energy Substitution 295 Patterns in EMF-8* John P. Weyant and Paul J. Werbos, An 296 Overview of EMF-8 on Industrial Energy Demand, Conservation, and Interfuel Substitution ENERGY DEMAND IN LATIN AMERICA Andrea N. Ketoff and Eva Schiorring, Oil 301 Consumption in Mexico: The Need for Conservation Peter Rogers, Eduardo A. Doryan-Garron, 305 and Alvaro Umana, Estimating the Benefits of Rural Electrification Projects Lee Schipper, Energy Demand in Latin 309 America* J. Rafael Vargas, Domestic Energy Demand in Oil Abundant Latin American Countries 309 ENERGY DEMAND, FACTOR SUBSTITUTION AND PRODUCTIVITY - Lennart Hjalmarsson, Energy Prices and the 314 Slow-Down in Productivity Growth* Paul Holtberg, The Impact on the Demand 314 for Energy of Lower Manufacturing Employment Robert McRae/Capital Revaluation and 318 Multifactor Productivity in Canadian Manufacturing Thomas Sterner, Effidency, Substitution and 323 Energy Use in the Mexican Cement Industry STUDIES OF ENERGY DEMAND Joseph M. Anderson and Robert J. Weiner, 328 Household Demand for Natural Gas: Estimates from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey 333 Jerry Jackson, Estimation of Short-Run Electridty Demand Using Outside Information* Kent Monts, Marian Blissett, and Robert 333 Wilson, Weather Normalization of Electridty Sales to the School Sector: Potential Model Misspecification David A. Poyer, Estimating a Demand Model 337 for Electricity Within a LES Framework Using Non-Panelled Cross Section Data WHOLESALE MARKETS, AND EMERGING COMPETITION IN THE U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY Glenn Blackmon, Prospects for an Electricity 342 Futures Market Thomas S. Karwaki, New Directions in 345 Wholesale Power Markets William J. Kemp, The Western Systems 349 Power Pool: A Bulk Power Free Market Experiment PRICE ASYMMETRIES IN ENERGY DEMAND? - H Torstein Bye, Non-Symmetric Responses in 354 Energy Demand Marc Ross, Eric D. Larson, and Robert H. 359 Williams, Energy Demand and Materials Flows in the Economy* Scott Sitzer and Anthony Bopp, Asymmetry 359 in Distillate Fuel Oil Consumption: Empirical Results and Forecasting Consequences* Tom Stevens and Gail Adams, Price 359 Asymmetry in the Demand for Residential Electridty? Cees J.H. Midden and Douwe N. Tiemersma, 364 Price Asymmetries in Natural Gas Demand in the Netherlands: A Behavioral Approach DEVELOPMENT, AND ENERGY USE AND CONSERVATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Alfredo Behrens and Lucas Assuncao, Energy 368 Rationalization in Brazilian Industry: Policy and Protagonists Jean-Romain Frisch, How World Demand 373 Will Challenge Energy Resources in the Long Term Donald W. Jones, Urbanization and Energy 377 Use in Economic Development* Mohan Munasinghe and Robert J. Saunders, 377 Electric Power Policy Reform in Developing Countries ENERGY PLANNING, DEVELOPMENT, AND FINANCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES D.J. Bjornstad and D.A. Trumble, Estimates 382 of the Impact of Imported Oil Price Increases on African Debt Mark Kosmo, Energy Pricing Policy, 385 Economic Performance and Energy Efficiency Bertrand Lepinoy, Regional Economic and 390 Energy Prospects in the Developing Countries: A Rational Approach Alfredo del Valle, Organizative Energy 395 Planning: An Alternative Approach for Developing Countries ORGANIZATION AND REGULATION OF u.s. ELECTRIC ununes Patrice C. Ignelzi, Operating 400 Conservation/Load Management Programs in a New Regulatory and Economic Environment Tapan Munroe, Lessons from Other 403 Industries for the Utility Business Paul Joseph Wielgus, The Placement and 408 Organization of Marketing Activities Within Investor Owned Electric Utilities ENERGY DEMAND MODELING AND FORECASTING Abbas Naini and Janice Worsick, The Impact 409 of Declining Oil Prices on Future Energy Demand in a Petroleum Produdng Region Richard D. Prosser, Simultaneous Estimation 413 of Demand and Supply Curves for Macroeconomic Energy Models David B. Reister, Future Demand for Fuel and 417 Electridty Henry Ruderman, David J. Wood, and James 422 E. McMahon, Market Share Elastidties for Fuel and Technology Choice in Home Heating and Cooling ENERGY AND THE MACROECONOMY Michael D. Koved, Tax Credits in a General 427 Equilibrium Model: The Effects of Energy Tax Credits on the Costs of Capital and Labor Robert McRae, Energy Price Shocks and 432 Canadian Macroeconomic Performance John Moroney, Energy Consumption and 437 Living Standards in Market and Planned Economies* Danilo J. Santini, Interactions of Energy and 437 the Macroeconomy - 95 Years of Evidence ENERGY CONSERVATION PROGRAM EVALUATION Paul J. Burke, Takis P. Plagiannakos, Gary A. 442 Schneider, Ontario Hydro's Strategic Conservation Potential in the Commerdal and Industrial Sectors vi Michael J. Doane and Raymond S. Hartman, 447 Taking the Con Out of Conservation Program Evaluation* Kristin Graves and Edward H. Pechan, The 447 Effects of Energy Prices on Energy Conservation Investments Under the New Tax Code Michael D. Yokell and Daniel M. Violette, 451 Estimation of Conservation Program Energy Savings Using Customer Billing Data ISSUES IN ENERGY DEMAND MODELING Jeff Dowd, Robert Dye, and Robert Kaufman, 456 Do Flexible Functional Forms Generate Accurate Elastidties? David B. Reister, Spedfication of Fuel Share 461 Models Lisa A. Skumatz, Richard S. Barnes, Suzanne 464 Holt, and Paul Ong, Truncation Bias in Energy Demand Equations: Effects of Item Non-Response in Survey Data David J. Wood, Henry Ruderman, and James 469 E. McMahon, A Study of Aggregation Bias in Estimating the Market for Home Heating and Cooling Equipment NATURAL GAS DEMAND, PRICES AND CORPORATE STRATEGY Richard L. Itteilag, Outlook For Natural Gas 473 Demand in New Markets: Leonard V. Parent, A New Era of Gas Pricing 476 Jeffrey A. Strauser, Perspective Strategic 479 Planning for an Unstable Natural Gas Industry* STUDIES IN ENERGY PRICING George J.Y. Hsu and York Y.C. Iiaw, Break- 479 Even Analysis of Fuel Oil Prices for Power Generation David W. South and John F. McDonald, 479 Regional Energy Price Dispersion: Measurement and Interpretation Menachem Sternberg, Coal-Oil Price 482 Differential and its Effect on the Use of Coal in Industry Thomas Sterner, Pridng of Oil-Products in the 487 Third World PROSPECTS FOR COGENERATION Martin Baughman, Cogeneration in Texas 492 Frederick H. Pickel, Cogeneration and Electric 497 Utility Rate Planning Jerome Radosh, Is Cogeneration Still Industry's North Slope?* 502 Pirooz Sharafi, Cogeneration in Developing 502 Countries: Potential Impediments and Policy Issues* ENERGY DEMAND, SUPPLY, AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA AND ASIA Shishir K. Mukherjee, Energy Planning and 503 Economic Growth in China and India: A Comparative Analysis Jayant Sathaye and Steven Meyers, Energy 507 Demand in Asian Developing Countries: Historical Trends and Future Prospects* R.N. Srivastava and M.L. Gupta, Electric 508 Energy Demand and Supply Options for India in 2000 A.D.* Vikram Widge and Wen S. Chern, An 508 Energy-Economy Model for India PANEL AND DISCUSSION ON ELECTRIC UTILITY FINANCING Leonard S. Hyman, Summary of Remarks 513 F.S. Potter, Summary of Remarks 513 W.W. von Schack, Summary of Remarks 513 RECENT ADVANCES IN ELECTRICITY PRICING J.P. Acton, S.M. Besen and T. Hayashi, 514 Regulation, Efficiency, and Competition in the Exchange of Electridty: First Year Results from FERC Bulk Power Market* RE. Bohn, M. Caramanis, F.C. Schweppe, 514 and R.D. Tabors, Actual Experience with Real Time Electridty Prices* Fereidoon P. Sioshansi, New Product and 514 Service Strategies for Electric Utilities vii Robert Wilson, Efficient Rationing of Electric 519 Power FRONTIERS IN ENERGY ANALYSIS - H P.G. Bradley and G.C. Watkins, Net Value 520 Royalti

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