The Future of Social Media

Presentation on the future of Social Media extrapolated from 2012 trends. Presented at Social Media World #smworld at the Melbourne Internet Show #internetshowmel on 1 May 2012 by David Warwick.
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  • 1. Social Media: Where is it headed? David Warwick The Internet Show – Melbourne 1 May2012 @drwarwickExperience. Capability. Technology
  • 2. The Future – Forces and Trends Structure and HistorySource: future will be the result of forces and trends operating today …Experience. Capability. Technology
  • 3. Forces Structure and History Proliferation The number of platforms, options and function grows (hype cycle) Adoption More people adopt social media (adoption curve) Commercialization Market share gives way to classic financial drivers (business maturity) Convergence Silos of innovation are combined for greater innovation (product iteration) Rationalization Winners and losers are determined and market settles (economics of scale) Governance Established power-base controls emerging risk (law and government – catch up) Invention Further discovery and innovation creates unforeseen disruptionExperience. Capability. Technology
  • 4. Proliferation Structure and History Initiating Force Players enter emerging space en masse. Effect Complexity of market requires decisions on ‘where to play’ and ‘where to spend’. Action Market analysis and single point of management are required by both businesses and individuals. Outcome Publishing, listening, measuring and management applications appear and have their own proliferation cycle! Source:Knowem … Capability. Technology
  • 5. Adoption Structure and History Source: Facebook Initiating Force The late majority and laggards enter space and ‘use-cells’ form. EffectAll market segments are present and ‘segmentation by innovation’ is lost. ActionData related to connections needs to exist outside of individual platforms. OutcomePersonal ‘contact books’ and integrated social CRM for business increase in use.Experience. Capability. Technology
  • 6. Commercialization Structure and History Initiating Force Seed funding ends, returns demanded. Effect All social media platforms must eventually find a way to make money. Action Advertising proliferates, however other shifts in trading data, preference, or utility for payment are embraced. Outcome Commercial forces change the flavour and in some cases the essence of key platforms. Low-socioeconomic groups effectively disenfranchised. Key influencers rewarded. Source: Capability. Technology
  • 7. Convergence Structure and History Initiating Force Innovation from combining advancements. Effect Greater utility, ubiquity and uptake. Action Media edges are blurred (Press, TV, Radio, Internet, Point-of-Sale, Education, Mobile). Outcome Social media covers the ‘four-screen world’ (mobile, PC, entertainment, environment). Linking technology is about seamless transition, shared data and immersive experience (far beyond QR codes, geo-location and image recognition). Source: Capability. Technology
  • 8. Rationalization Structure and History Initiating ForceThere will be war and emerging from the clash will be a winner (winners). EffectConvergence, commercial models and adoption trends will reduce proliferation. ActionSome platforms will merge, some will fail and someone will buy the winner (s). OutcomeFollow your audience and your strategy – not the platform! Source: Capability. Technology
  • 9. Governance Structure and History Initiating Force Where is your power? The status quo or the future? Effect Governments, Corporations and a host of interest groups wish to ‘bend’ social forces (online or offline) for their agenda (benevolent or malevolent). Action Legislation, monitoring, filtering, isolation, propaganda, campaigning and taxing … these are all forces that will have an impact on Social Media and the online world. Outcome Different groups will get different outcomes. Although Social Media will change the world, it will also be changed and adapt to many existing forces and issues. Source: Capability. Technology
  • 10. Invention Structure and History Initiating Force People making change … Jeffrey Zeldman … - Ubiquitous - Monolithic - Smarter -Invisible Capability. Technology
  • 11. Preparing for the FUTURE Structure and History Proliferation (there are more platforms than demographic groups or business strategies) Strategy (audience and message) guide activity using monitoring technology. Adoption (all market segments are present and there is no remaining early adopter advantage) Clusters need to be determined and tracked. Social or integrated CRM is the key. Commercialization (dominant platforms increasing function according to profit drivers) Pay for priority, utility and influence. Micro and SM payment functionality matures. Convergence (network speed, shared data, all devices, most locations are integrated) Preferences and personal brand are key to almost ubiquitous engagement. ID integrity. Rationalization (“complexity on the other side of simplicity” … ) Learn what works, remain flexible and embrace the outcome that delivers. Metrics! Governance (control and monitoring will increase proportional with value creation and adoption) Develop your own objective, policy and monitoring approach. Gain Influence! Invention (nothing is more certain than change) Other forces will make the future unpredictable. Gain Knowledge! Keep Flexibility!Experience. Capability. Technology
  • 12. Influence | Knowledge | Flexibility Structure and History Nearly universal literacy is a defining characteristic of modern civilization. Nearly universal authorship will shape tomorrows! Denis Pelli& Charles Bigelow A Writing Revolution Capability. Technology
  • 13. Growth in authorship Structure and History People are trading privacy for influence! Trends Books: x10 per century for 6 centuries | New media: x 10 per year for 6 years Source: Denis Pelli& Charles Bigelow … Capability. Technology
  • 14. Experience. Capability. Technology
  • 15. Monitoring – ‘Listening Post’ Model (control and learning) Structure and HistoryExperience. Capability. Technology
  • 16. Invention Structure and HistoryExperience. Capability. Technology
  • 17. END David Warwick Director of Technology and Services M: 0411 411 555 P: 1300 780 566 @drwarwick May2012Experience. Capability. Technology
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