The Impact of Imf Stabilisation

There oeems to be agreement beti7een the Fund's c r i t i c s and defenders that i t s prograranes have major effects on the econonies concerned. The disagreement is about whether the net sura of these effects is harmful or b e n e f i c i a l . Such systematic evidence as exists on this topic throws doubt upon this premise, hovrever, and the task of this chaptar is to survey the evidence^'explore the reasons vrhy Fund prograraines do not always achieve what they set out to do.
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  WORKING  P PER Overseas Development Institute 10 1 1  Percy  Street Londr3r. W1P OJB Tei:  01 580 7683  OVc '^srAS  OFVELOPWENT  INSTITUTE 10 11 PERCY  Slim, l im  WIP 0J3 Teh 01 o80  7G83 No. 7 THE  IMPACT OF IMF STABILISATION PROGRAMMES IN lEVELOPING COUNTRIES Tony  Killick* *Re8earch Officer, Overseas Development Institute ODI Working Papers present in preliminary form work resulting from research undertaken under the auspices of  the Institute. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of ODI. Comments are welcomed and should be addressed directly  to the authors. 0  85003 081 1 March 1982 So? 2..  THE  E3?AC'I OF  lilF  STABILISATION PR(3GF-^'Ji2ES IN DiiVELOPIIJG COm-JTRlES Contents page Introduction 1 I -  Tiffi  IMPACT ON IHE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Questions of measurernent ^ Effect on current account Basic or overall balances ^ Liberalisation 10 II -  IIIPACT  ON OTHER TAROET VARIABLES Impact on econaaic  growth  13 The inflation rate 15 The distribution of income 17 Problems of interpretation 22 III ~ IJHY IS THE ITIPACT SO SLIGHT? The extent of prograiiKte impleraentation 24 Impact on instrument variables 2 7 The correlation bet^reen implementation and results 30 Other explanations 31 IV ~ SUiaiAIlY 37 laSFERENCES  39
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