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Warhammer-Probabilities.pdf

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The Small Book of Probabilities An unofficial guide to probabilities of Warhammer 8th edition Contents 1 Movement 1.1 Charge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Magic 2.1 Magic winds . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.1 Caster’s number of dice . . 2.1.2 Difference between caster’s 2.1.3 Channelling . . . . . . . . 2.2 Casting and dispelling . . . . . . 2.3 Miscasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 3 . . . . . . 5 5 5 6 7 8 11 . . . . 12 12 13 13 14 4 Fighti
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  The Small Book of Probabilities An unofficial guide to probabilities of   Warhammer   8 th edition Contents 1 Movement 3 1.1 Charge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 Magic 5 2.1 Magic winds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.1.1 Caster’s number of dice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.1.2 Difference between caster’s and dispeller’s number of dice . . . . . . 62.1.3 Channelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72.2 Casting and dispelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82.3 Miscasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 3 Shooting 12 3.1 Range weapon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123.2 Cannon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133.2.1 Bounce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133.2.2 Grapeshot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 4 Fighting 15 4.1 Fleet and pursuit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 5 Tests 16 5.1 Leadership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165.2 Characteristic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171  Introduction During a game of   Warhammer  , players have to make important decisions to lead their armyto victory. But to go from a pure strategy to an actual battle, dice have to be thrown!Those dice decide the outcome of many aspects of the game and ultimately of the battle: ã  Will this unit of   Realm Knights   successfully charge that unit of filthy  Skavens   15inches away? ã  Will this  Fireball   spell be successfully cast by a level 1 sorcerer using 2 dice? ã  Will this skilled  Elf   archer be able to hit his target at long distance? ã  Will this unit of   Goblins   be able to pass their leadership test even if their battlestandard bearer is nowhere in sight?With so many aspects of the game left to chance, it is of utter importance for goodgenerals to know in advance how likely certain events are. Knowing the probability of successfully charging, casting a spell or shooting can turn the battle in your favor. In thefollowing pages, you will find many charts and tables to help you take the best decisionsin all situations!2  1 Movement The  Movement   phase is arguably the phase in which chance plays the less part. Indeed,most movements can be made without consulting the dice first. However, charges arean important exception. To know if a unit can charge an other, dice have to be rolled!Knowing what distance units are likely to cover in charge can change the course of a battle. 1.1 Charge The chart below presents the probability to successfully charge depending on the distanceseparating the two units. Values on the horizontal axis denotes the distance between thetwo units, where  M  is the  movement   of the unit charging. Examples ã  A unit of   Ogre Bulls  , with  movement   of 6, has about 40% chance to reach a unit atdistance 14 inches (see the  M + 8  and  Normal  column). ã  A unit of   Ellyrian Reavers  , which have  movement   9 and are  fast  , has more than 90%chance to successfully cover the same 14 inches (see the  M + 5  and  Fast  column). ã  A fast unit which also can reroll its missed charges will have almost 60% chance tocharge an enemy at distance  M + 10 .3  Cheat sheet The table below presents the distance likely or unlikely covered in a charge. This table ismeant for quick access and not for completeness. See the previous chart if you are in needof more details!Movement Fast Rerollable Likely ( ≥ 90%) Risky ( ≥ 50%) Improbable ( ≤ 10%) M  no no  M + 4 M + 7 M + 11 no yes  M + 6 M + 8 M + 12 yes no  M + 5 M + 9 M + 12 yes yes  M + 7 M + 10  -In the  Likely   column is indicated the furthest a unit can charge while keeping a highprobability of success. In the  Risky   column, on the other hand, is the furthest a unit cancharge while maintaing at least 50% chance of success.  Improbable   indicates the smallestdistance which is reached with probability less or equal to 10%.4
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