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1317276845Asipac Study - Mall Space Demand and Supply in Mumbai

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  Research Studies on MALLS IN INDIA September 2011 Demand & Supply of Mall Space in Mumbai Metropolitan Region RESEARCH STUDIES ON MALLS IN INDIA    S  e  p   t  e  m   b  e  r   2   0   1   1 Demand & Supply of Mall Space in India 0   MUMBAI METROPOLITAN REGION  Demand & Supply of Mall Space in Mumbai Metropolitan Region September 2011 Research Studies on MALLS IN INDIA 1 CONTENTS Background 2International Comparisons 2Malls in Mumbai Metropolitan Region 4TABLE 2: Existing Malls in Mumbai 4TABLE 3: Upcoming Malls in Mumbai 5TABLE 4: Mumbai Mall Space Demand & Supply 6CHART 1: Mumbai Mall Space Demand & Supply 7Map 8Analysis by Micro Markets 9CHART 2: Analysis by Micro Markets 13Analysis by Footfalls 14Demand and Supply Analysis 15Methodology 17About Asipac 18Acknowledgments 18  Demand & Supply of Mall Space in Mumbai Metropolitan Region September 2011 Research Studies on MALLS IN INDIA BACKGROUND Retail shops/outlets in any major (modern) city across the world are usually spread acrossmalls or shopping centres, high streets or main streets and neighbourhood strips. For themodern retail industry, and especially malls, to do well, the macro economic theory of demandand supply comes into play.Needless to say, there is obviously limited demand for retail space anywhere in the world andany oversupply positions, especially in large percentages, are not just unhealthy for propertyowners, investors, occupants, consumers and other stakeholders, but also for the industry andtheoverall economy at large.Table 1 below shows the Per Capita Total Retail Space and the Per Capita Mall Space indifferentcountries around the world.Globally, there is broad consensus that the Per Capital Mall Space (PCMS) is in a hugeoversupply position in markets such as Dubai, USA, China and Singapore. On the other hand,Japan, UK, Sweden, Netherlands, Australia and NZ are much better off with the PCMS rangingbetween 3.8 sft and 6.8 sft. 2 Country Per Capita Total Retail Space (sft) Per Capita Mall Space (sft) Dubai -- 25.3USA 46.6 23.1Singapore 15.7 7.2Australia, New Zealand 24 to 31 5.5 to 6.8Sweden, Netherlands -- 4.8 to 5.1UK 16.7 to 18 3.9Hong Kong, South Korea 14 to 16 --Japan 12 to 13 3.8South Africa -- 3.2Spain, France, Italy -- 2.7Russia, Turkey, Belgium -- 0.6 to 0.7 PER CAPITA TOTAL RETAIL SPACE AND PER CAPITA MALL SPACE Table1  Demand & Supply of Mall Space in Mumbai Metropolitan Region September 2011 Research Studies on MALLS IN INDIA In any market, there needs to be some correlation between the PCMS and the Per CapitaIncome. So while 3.8 or 3.9 sft may not be considered as oversupply in Japan or UK, the PCMSof 3.2 sft in South Africa is definitelyin an oversupplyposition.Taking into account the above comparisons and considering  India’s  current per capita incomeand spending power, together with estimated growth rates for the next 5 years, Asipacestimates that the ideal PCMS in  India’s  top 20 urban centres is about 1.2 sft per person, butthis can fluctuate from 1.0 sft and 1.5 sft in different micro markets, based on the per capitaincome of that particular micro market.This report (the sixth in the series by Asipac) studies the demand and supply scenario, bothcurrent as well as projected till the year 2014, for mall space in Mumbai Metropolitan Region(MMR), consisting of the following regions (where applicable, the sub-regions within eachregion have also been listed):1. Kalyan Dombivali2. MiraBhayandar3. Mumbai City4. Mumbai Suburban  –  Central Suburbs5. Mumbai Suburban  –  Western Suburbs6. Navi Mumbai ã  Airoli ã  CBD Belapur ã  Digha ã  Ghansoli ã  Koparkhairane ã  Nerul ã  Sanpada ã  Turbhe ã  Vashi7. Thane sft = square feet; 1 sqm or m 2 = 10.764 sft 3
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