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1336433338_Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers- An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods.pdf

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INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS IN THEATER JOINT INTELLIGENCE CENTERS: AN EXPERIMENT IN APPLYING STRUCTURED METHODS Occasional Paper Number Seven January 2000 Joint Military Intelligence College J O I N T M I L I T A R Y I N TEL L I G E N C E C O L L E G E 1 962 D E F E N S E IN T ELLIGEN C E A G E N C Y U N I T E D STATES OF A M E R I C A PCN 34201 0 The Joint Military Intelligence College supports and encourages research on intelligence issues that distills lessons and improves support to policy-
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  INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS IN THEATERJOINT INTELLIGENCE CENTERS: ANEXPERIMENT IN APPLYINGSTRUCTURED METHODS Occasional Paper Number Seven  January 2000 Joint Military Intelligence College         D        E       F      E     N     S     E  I   N   T   E  L  L I  G  E  N   C    E    A    G      E      N        C        Y U      N     I     T     E    D    S   T   A T  E S  O   F  A   M    E    R     I    C      A  0 The Joint Military Intelligence College supports and encourages  research on intelligence issues that distills lessons and improves  support to policy-level and operational consumers This series of Occasional Papers presents the work of faculty, students and others whose research onintelligence issues is supported or otherwise encouraged by the Joint Military Intelligence Collegethrough its Office of Applied Research. Occasional papers are distributed to Department of Defenseschools and to the Intelligence Community, and additional copies of unclassified papers are availablethrough the National Technical Information Service < www.ntis.gov  >; copies of selected papers arealso available through the U.S. Government Printing Office < www.gpo.gov  >.Proposed manuscripts for these papers are submitted for consideration to the Applied Research Edi-torial Board. Papers undergo review by senior officials in Defense, Intelligence and occasionally civil-ian academic or business communities.  i Occasional Paper Number Seven INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS IN THEATER JOINT INTELLIGENCE CENTERS: AN EXPERIMENT IN APPLYING STRUCTURED METHODS By MSgt Robert D. Folker, Jr. (USAF) JOINT MILITARY INTELLIGENCE COLLEGEWASHINGTON, DCJanuary 2000 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government This paper has been approved for unrestricted public release by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (Public Affairs)   iii CONTENTS Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v Foreword. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Preamble. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 The Research Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 The Art or Science Debate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 The Experiment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Considerations and Limitations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 The Findings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Implications and Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Final Impression. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Bibliography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 About the Author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
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