Documents

Analytics in Action - How Marketelligent Helped a US Manufacturer Improve Demand Forecasts

Description
Improve Demand Forecasts. Sales up by $ 3MM, stock-outs down
Categories
Published
of 2
All materials on our website are shared by users. If you have any questions about copyright issues, please report us to resolve them. We are always happy to assist you.
Related Documents
Share
Transcript
  Business Situation : US-based manufacturer of personalized gift items; with presence across North America, Australia, Europe and Middle East. They have over 3,000 sku’s on offer; across 8 product platforms and 13 countries. SKU’s are supplied from Far East suppliers, with a 3 -month lead time. And almost 60% of Customers purchase gift items for immediate consumption; with the remaining having a deferred shipment date through out the year. In addition, the manufacturer runs SKU-level promotions through-out the year, which result in SKU-specific demand. Critical to have accurate sku-level demand forecast so that all orders are met; while maintaining optimal inventories. The Task : -Develop a framework and relevant forecasting models for improving the forecast process and accuracy.-Obtain a robust and accurate SKU-level forecasting for each week over a year.-Implement the predictive models so that forecasting is improved, inventory levels are optimal and customer satisfaction is improved. Analytical Framework : The solution was aimed at simplifying the process and improving the timeliness and accuracy of demand forecast:1.Simplify and automate some of the current processes that were cumbersome and susceptible to human error.2.Use statistical analysis to learn from historical trends, project future demand, and create an Early Warning System to predict weekly excess and stock-outs at SKU level.3.Improved the existing process of predicting repeat business using cannibalization models and also provided shipment profiles with insights on patterns of how products shipped out to customers. This helped in placing timely and appropriate Purchase Orders with suppliers.4.Provided dashboards for measuring forecast accuracy and also performance of shipments.5.Adhoc analytics to support current forecasting, customer care and marketing decisions e.g. quantifying financial impact of late shipments The Result : ã Better sku-level forecasts and ability to react faster to products becoming hits. ã Less obsolete inventory at the end of the year meant freeing up working capital and reducing waste. Lower stock-out rates also meant better customer satisfaction in addition to revenue. Since repeat customers are their main focus, this factor is critical inpreventing unnecessary attrition. ã More scientific approach to forecasting, thereby eliminating any bias in subjective forecasting logic. Analytics in Action Improve Demand Forecasts. Sales up by $ 3MM, stock-outs down Client : A US-based Manufacturer of Customized Gifting Products Forecast Variance    S   a    l   e   s   g   r   o   w   t    h    (   P   Y    ) Over-forecasted GrowingUnder-forecasted GrowingUnder-forecasted DecliningOver-forecasted Declining WC57001A,+,+TD72601B,-,-WC87901A,-,-WC74846A,+,+WC57001B,-,-WC59401A,+,+WC69501A,+,+WC62545A,-,-WC93001A,+,+WA38001A,-,-WC62545B,-,-WC58802A,+,+WC59004A,-,-WC74846B,+,+WC30146A,-,-WD25646A,+,+WC74903B,+,+WD06001A,-,-WC74903A,+,+WC59401B,-,-WC59004B,-,-WC83504A,+,+WD31503B,-,-WC80446A,-,-WC28801A,+,+WC81001A,-,-WC83945A,+,+WC28301A,-,-WC87901B,+,+WA85401A,-,-WC58802B,+,+WC88102A,-,-WD11202A,-,-WC89803A,+,+WC83945B,-,-WD01993A,+,+WC30146B,-,-WD18006A,+,+ -   050001000015000200002500030000--30000-20000-10000010000200003000040000147101316192225283134374043 MAPE - 23.47% 2UCL3UCL2LCL3LCLVariance 235386359051198157211658.21196496.37050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000 3 3 3 3 3 3 333 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plan CFY_2009YTD_2010Regression 1Regression 2  forecast    YOUR PARTNER FORDATA ANALYTICS SERVICES MANAGEMENT TEAMGLOBAL EXPERIENCE. PROVEN RESULTS. RoyK.CherianCEO Royhasover20yearsofrichexperienceinmarketing,advertisingandmediainorganizationslikeNestleIndia,UnitedBreweries,FCBandFeedbackVentures.HeholdsanMBAfromIIMAhmedabad. AnunayGupta,PhDCOO&HeadofAnalytics Anunayhasover15yearsofexperience,withasignificantportionfocusedonAnalyticsinConsumerFinance.InhislastassignmentatCitigroup,hewasresponsibleforallDecisionManagementfunctionsfortheUSCardsportfolioofCitigroup,coveringapprox$150Binassets.AnunayholdsanMBAinFinancefromNYUSternSchoolofBusiness. BuckChintamaniEVP,StrategicInitiatives&BusinessDevelopment Buckhasextensiveexperienceworkingwithglobalclientsacrosssectors.HewasanearlyemployeeatInfosys,afoundingteammemberatsupply-chainsoftwarestartup-Yantra,andpartofthemanagementteamatRFIDsectorstartup-Reva.Mostrecently,hewastheVice-PresidentforServicePartnerStrategyandProgramsatproductlifecyclemanagementsoftwarecompany,PTC.BuckhasanMBAfromIIMAhmedabad. KakulPaulBusinessHead,CPG Kakulhasover6yearsofexperiencewithintheCPGindustry.ShewaspreviouslypartoftheAnalyticspracticeasWNS,leadinganalyticinitiativesfortopFortune50clientsglobally.ShehasextensiveexperienceinwhatdrivesConsumerpurchasebehavior,marketmixmodeling,pricing&promotionanalytics,etc.KakulhasanMBAfromIIMAhmedabad. ADVANCED ANALYTICAL SOLUTIONS   MARKETELLIGENT, INC. 80 Broad Street, 5th Floor, New York, NY 100041.212.837.7827 (o) 1.208.439.5551 (fax) info@marketelligent.com CONTACT www.marketelligent.com IndustryBusiness FocusTools and Techniques Consumer Finance Investment OptimizationSAS, SPSS, R, VBACredit CardsRevenue MaximizationCluster analysisLoans and MortgagesCost and Process EfficienciesFactor analysisRetail Banking & InsuranceForecastingConjoint analysisWealth ManagementPredictive ModelingPerceptual maps Consumer Goods and Retail Risk ManagementNeuralNetworksCPG & RetailPricing OptimizationChaid/ CARTConsumer DurablesCustomerSegmentationGenetic Algorithms Manufacturing andSupply Chain Supply Chain ManagementSupport Vector Machines High Tech OEM’s SentimentAnalysis AutomotiveLogistics & Distribution
Search
Tags
Related Search
We Need Your Support
Thank you for visiting our website and your interest in our free products and services. We are nonprofit website to share and download documents. To the running of this website, we need your help to support us.

Thanks to everyone for your continued support.

No, Thanks
SAVE OUR EARTH

We need your sign to support Project to invent "SMART AND CONTROLLABLE REFLECTIVE BALLOONS" to cover the Sun and Save Our Earth.

More details...

Sign Now!

We are very appreciated for your Prompt Action!

x