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By Stanton Emerging Paradigms in Genocide Prevention

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Genocide as an experience of human behavior throughout history is old, but our concern and understanding about it are relatively new. Humans have probably been committing genocide since the beginning of our species. Killing ‘en masse’ and
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  Emerging paradigms in genocide prevention ByProf. Andrea BartoliDirector, Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution (ICAR),George Mason UniversityMr. etsus!i gataResearc!er, Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution (ICAR),George Mason University Prof. Gregory #tanton, P!DResearc! Professor, Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution (ICAR)George Mason UniversityPu$lis!ed in Politorbis #47 %e$ruary &'' ‘Willful neglect’  Genocide as an e*erience of !u+an $e!avior t!roug!out !istory is old, $ut our concern and understanding a$out it are relatively ne. -u+ans !ave *ro$a$ly $een co++itting genocide since t!e  $eginning of our s*ecies.   illing /en +asse0 and co++itting cri+es against ot!er !u+an grou*s is not ne to !u+an !istory. -u+an grou*s !ave considered 1 and unfortunately still consider 1 genocide as a via$le *olitical course of action, conte+*lating t!e intentional destruction of ot!er grou*s 22 national, et!nical, racial or religious, in !ole or in *art 1 in suc! a ay as defined $y t!e U3 Convention on t!e Prevention and Punis!+ent of t!e Cri+e of Genocide. &  -oever, it is only in recent years t!at e !ave co+e to ac4noledge genocide +ore syste+atically, trying to articulate understandings t!at ere si+*ly unavaila$le to our ancestors. !ere as a long delay in recogni5ing genocide as a cri+e des*ite its recurrence t!roug!out !u+an !istory. As a !u+an race, e did not even !ave a na+e to descri$e genocidal violence $efore t!e #econd 6orld 6ar !en Ra*!ael 7e+4in coined t!e ter+ 8genocide.9 :  Until t!en, it as a 8cri+e it!out a na+e9 in t!e ords of Pri+e Minister 6inston C!urc!ill. ;  !e syste+atic +ass +urder of +illions of *eo*le in t!e -olocaust, !oever, forced us to recogni5e t!at !u+ans ere 4illing ot!er !u+ans in syste+atic ays, it! t!e intent to destroy grou*s in !ole or in  *art, it! terrifying results. !e U3 Genocide Convention of <;= e+erged as t!e legal res*onse, sti*ulating 8a detailed and >uite tec!nical definition as a cri+e against t!e la of nations9 ?  !ic! t!en engendered de$ates a+ong sc!olars for decades to follo. @     Ben iernan,  Blood and Soil: A World History of Genocide and Extermination from Sparta to Darfur  , (3e -aven ale University Press, &''). &   Conention on t!e reention and unis!ment of t!e Crime of Genocide , (<?). Article II defines acts of genocide 4illing +e+$ers of t!e grou* causing serious $odily or +ental !ar+ to +e+$ers of t!e grou* deli$erately inflicting on t!e grou* conditions of life calculated to $ring a$out its *!ysical destruction in !ole or in  *art i+*osing +easures intended to *revent $irt!s it!in t!e grou* forci$ly transferring c!ildren of t!e grou* to anot!er grou*. :  Ra*!ael 7e+4in,  Axis #ule in $ccupied Europe: %a&s of $ccupation' Analysis of Goernment' roposals for  #edress , (6as!ington Carnegie Endo+ent for International Peace, Division of International 7a, <;;). ;  In a radio $roadcast delivered $y 6inston C!urc!ill on August &;, <;, after Ger+any invaded t!e #oviet Union.  et /illful neglect0 *revailed in s*ite of nu+erous genocides in t!e latter !alf of t!e &' t!  centuryt!e orld0s leaders ere +indful of !at as unfolding and yet stood $y and negligently let t!e cri+es trans*ire. !is indifference as *artly Fustified $y *olitical calculations t!at +ade sense to t!e  *er*etrators   and as tolerated $y a desire to avoid intervention in violent strife $y leaders of ot!er countries !o ere desensiti5ed $y ideology to t!e violence inflicted on t!e +ass of victi+s and t!eir co++unities, t!e ideological nu+$ing of t!e Cold 6ar. =  !e very Genocide Convention !ic! as ado*ted on < Dece+$er <;=, a day $efore t!e Universal Declaration of -u+an Rig!ts as ado*ted, as also an e*ression of t!is /illful neglect.0 !e tet of t!e Convention deli$erately left an a+$iguous s*ace for inter*retation as it o+itted 8*oliticide9 1 destruction of grou*s $ased on i+*uted *olitical affiliation 1 fro+ t!e ter+s of t!e Convention. <  !e de$ate and disagree+ent over a+$iguities and uncertainties e+$edded in t!e Genocide Convention, des*ite t!e srcinal intent of t!e drafters, endure to t!is day. A+ong t!e unresolved issues are t!e definition of genocide and !at institutions !ave res*onsi$ility for its *revention, as ell as legal standards on t!e +eaning of intent to destroy t!e enu+erated grou*s in !ole or in *art. '  Does t!e intent need to $e 8s*ecific9 as advocated $y Euro*ean civil layers, +a4ing *rosecution *ossi$le after genocide is over, $ut *revention al+ost i+*ossi$le !ile a genocide is underay r is si+*ly 84noing9 of t!e intent sufficient, as t!e co++on la tradition and7e+4in +eantGenocide is a !ig!ly *olitical act and genocide *revention cannot $e $ut a *olitical res*onse. 6!ile genocidal *rocesses assu+e necessarily fluid and conditional circu+stances $efore t!e occurrence of genocide  , even t!e fra+ing of grou* classification, es*ecially into a *olitically dic!oto+ous relations!i*, could *reci*itate a genocidal t!reat. &  et fe ould disagree t!at genocide cannot !a**en it!out +ass +urder of !u+an grou*s and it!out t!e illful neglect of ot!er states. Genocide  *revention t!erefore re>uires t!at *olitically illed attention $e *aid to *rocesses of !u+an interaction at all t!e different levels 1 individual, grou*, and state 1 over ti+e and s*ace. 6!at is e+erging today is a confluence of $urgeoning sc!olars!i*, syste+s of infor+ation +anage+ent, doctrinal evolution, and institutional *latfor+s t!at assist us in inviting s!ared understanding and loo4ing at t!e *!eno+ena differently and +ore co+*re!ensively. !e ensuing discussion ill !ig!lig!t t!e 4ey develo*+ents in t!ose areas, illu+inating a direction !ere t!e e+erging trends are leading us.  Emerging trend: sc!olars!ip Genocide is s>uarely in a *olitically contested area. o s*ea4 a$out genocide is to s*ea4  *olitically. Genocide *revention, in t!is sense, is strictly lin4ed to *olitically relevant 4noledge. #tates !ave $een very sensitive to infor+ation a$out *olitical violence in t!eir territories. !ey !ave tried to ?  6illia+ #c!a$as, Genocide in (nternational %a&: )!e Crimes of Crimes , (Ca+$ridge, U. Ca+$ridge UniversityPress, &'''), ;. @  %or definitional conundru+ and t!e illustration on t!e de$ates and inclusivist or eclusivist ca+*s, see for ea+*le Ada+ Hones, Genocide: A Compre!ensie (ntroduction , (7ondon Routledge, &''@).   BenFa+in A alentino,  *inal Solutions: +ass ,illing and Genocide in t!e )&entiet! Century , Cornell studies in security affairs, (It!aca, 3. Cornell University Press, &'';). =  Paul #lovic, JIf I loo4 at t!e +ass I ill never actJ Psyc!ic nu+$ing and genocide,  -udgment and Decision  +a.ing   &, no. & (&'') <2<?. <  Bar$ara -arff and ed Ro$ert Gurr, oard E+*irical !eory of Genocides and Politicides Identification and Measure+ent of Cases #ince <;?,  (nternational Studies /uarterly  :&, no. : (<==) :?<2:. '  #ee #c!a$as in t!is volu+e for furt!er discussion.   Mar4 7evene, Genocide in t!e Age of t!e 0ation1State: )!e meaning of genocide , olu+e , (7ondon I.B. auris,&''?). &  %or stages of !o genocidal *rocesses could develo*, see Gregory #tanton. <<@. )!e 2 stages of genocide . In otten and Bartro*, eds., )!e Genocide Studies #eade r, (Routledge, &''<). Also availa$le at Genocide 6atc! at !tt*KK.genocideatc!.orgKa$outgenocideK=stagesofgenocide.!t+l.  &  li+it +edia coverage of suc! events for a long ti+e. ne of t!e +ost significant ris4 *redictors of genocide is t!e closure of a state0s $orders to trade and t!e flo of infor+ation. :  -oever, four significant *rocesses !ave c!anged t!e course of t!is trend.#ociological, ant!ro*ological, and *olitical science sc!olars!i* on *recursors and ris4 factors for genocide !ave $een one of t!ose *rocesses. A+ong t!e *ioneers of genocide studies include sociologists 7eo u*er, Irving 7ouis -oroit5, and -elen %ein *olitical scientists R.H Ru++el, Bar$ara -arff and ed Gurr *syc!ologists Israel C!arny and Ervin #tau$ layers 6illia+ #c!a$as and Gregory #tanton and !istorians e!uda Bauer, Ben iernan, and -enry -utten$ac!. It as in t!e <='s !en studies of genocide started develo*ing >uic4ly into an acade+ic field. 7eo u*er *roduced t!e se+inal contri$utionto genocide studies since 7e+4in0s or4  ; , along it! -oroit5 ?  and C!arny @  !o develo*ed furt!er understanding of genocide and its co+*arative fra+ing. t!er classic volu+es ere %ein0s co+*arative studies of t!e -olocaust and genocides   and C!al4 and Honasso!n0s !istorical analysis of genocidal for+sin relation to social contets t!roug! tenty case studies. =  C!arny *roduced t!e to2volu+e Encyclo*edia of Genocide in <<< !ic! reflected t!e contested de$ates on definitions and inter*retations of genocide as ell as t!e +easures to *revent it. <  -istorians suc! as Bauer  &'  and iernan &  located genocidal violence in contet and de+onstrated t!e feasi$ility of in>uiries and  *ainsta4ingly $la5ed *at!ays toards dee*er understanding of genocide in !u+an !istory. Conco+itant to t!e groing sc!olars!i*, genocide studies as an acade+ic field $eca+e for+ally organi5ed $y t!e launc! of t!e International Association of Genocide #c!olars (IAG#), founded in <<; $y C!arny, %ein, Melson, #+it! and ot!ers, !ic! !olds $iennial conferences draing a ric! diversity of grou*s and acade+ics it! t!e ai+ of *revention. o leading Fournals !ave e+erged t!e  -ournal of Genocide  #esearc!  in <<< under t!e editors!i* of -utten$ac!, and t!e  -ournal of Genocide Studies and   reention , t!e official Fournal of t!e IAG# since &''@.  Emerging trend: information management  !e second *rocess !as $een t!e increasing availa$ility of data$ases and o*en source infor+ationt!at +a4e it *ossi$le to s!are t!e tas4 of sustained +onitoring of *olitical structures and relevant incidentsat t!e local and glo$al level. Bar$ara -arff and ed Gurr initially directed researc! activities of t!e #tate %ailure as4 %orce !ic! as for+ed at t!e re>uest of U# *olicy+a4ers and co++issioned $y t!e Central Intelligence Agency. !ey c!arted cases of state violence co++itted against targeted *o*ulations and develo*ed datasets and >uantitative +odels to s!o t!e correlates of state failure, of !ic! genocidesand *oliticides are *art. &&  !is tas4 force as rena+ed t!e Political Insta$ility as4 %orce in &'':, s!iftingits srcinal sco*e of analysis fro+ narroly defined state failure and colla*se. a4ing *art in t!e ne tas4 :  Bar$ara -arff, 83o 7essons 7earned fro+ t!e -olocaust Assessing Ris4s of Genocide and Political Mass Murder since <??,9  American olitical Science #eie& <. (&'':) ?2 :. ;  7eo u*er, Genocide: (ts olitical 3se in t!e )&entiet! Century , (3e -aven ale University Press, <=&). Also, see 7eo u*er, )!e reention of Genocide , (3e -aven ale University Press, <=?). ?  Irving 7ouis -oroit5, )a.ing %ies: Genocide and State o&er  , (3e Brunsic4, 3.H ransaction Boo4s, <='). @  Israel 6. C!arny,  Ho& Can We Commit t!e 3nt!in.a4le5: Genocide' t!e Human Cancer' (Boulder, Colo 6estvie Press, <=&).     -elen %ein, Genocide A #ociological Pers*ective, Current Sociology  :=, no.  (<<') 2&@. =  %ran4 C!al4 and urt Honasso!n, )!e History and Sociology of Genocide: Analyses and Case Studies , (3e -aven ale University Press <<').   <  Israel 6 C!arny, ed.,  Encyclopedia of Genocide' (#anta Bar$ara, Calif ABC2C7I , <<<). &'  #ee Bauer in t!is volu+e for furt!er discussion. &  iernan,  Blood and Soil  . &&  #ee datasets develo*ed $y t!e #tate %ailure as4 %orce at t!e Political Insta$ility as4 %orce e$site at !tt*KKglo$al*olicy.g+u.eduK*itfK. :  force, Monty Mars!all and colleagues !ave *roduced glo$al re*orts on syste+ic violence, +onitoring trends in ar+ed conflict, governance *erfor+ance, and state fragility. &:  !e areas of ris4 assess+ents and early arning assess+ents !ave also $een $urgeoning in tande+ it! t!ese develo*+ents. &;  6!at is funda+entally c!anging as a result of t!ese ne *oers in data2driven analyses at t!e state syste+ level ist!e fact t!at genocide *revention is $eco+ing a line of s*eciali5ed in>uiry. In t!e *ast sity years since t!eado*tion of t!e Genocide Convention, groing understanding of genocide studies t!roug! t!e early literature and >uantitative analyses dedicated to *revention efforts !as *re*ared t!e ne analytical fra+e and conditions under !ic! e can no o*erate and !as $ridged t!e ga* $eteen t!e to co++unities of researc!ers and *olicy+a4ers. -ig!ly *olitical in nature, t!is in>uiry !as t!e *otential to contri$ute +eaningfully to t!e *eace and security de$ate of t!e & st  century. !e increasing *resence of o*en2source infor+ation !as also contri$uted to *olitically relevant 4noledge of genocide *revention. Groing tec!nological resources and a large a+ount of availa$le data !ave significantly c!anged t!e value of infor+ation t!at is crucial to genocide *revention. 6!ile t!e e+ergence of e*eri+ental *latfor+s suc! as t!e %A# International early arning *rogra+ !oused in #iss*eace or Us!a!idi0s e$site a**lication to +a* incidents of violence and *eace efforts $ased on crod2sourcing infor+ation !ave not reduced genocide *revention +et!odology only to its tec!nical co+*onents, t!e tactical de$ate !as $een e*andedfro+ !istorical and co+*arative analyses of *ast genocides to incor*orate conte+*oraneous analyses of datasets to *roduce *redictive +odels of genocide.Gregory #tanton founded Genocide 6atc! in <<=, t!e first international organi5ation t!at atte+*ts to *redict and *revent !ig! ris4s of genocidal develo*+ent at t!e glo$al scale t!roug! infor+ation s!aring and coordination of t!e International Ca+*aign to End Genocide, a glo$al coalition t!at no includes t!irty organi5ations on five continents it! !undreds of field researc!ers. &?  !e Ca+*aign0s largest +e+$ers, suc! as t!e International Crisis Grou*, !ave +ulti2+illion dollar $udgets it! researc!ers on t!e ground around t!e orld, as ell as so*!isticated access to *olicy +a4ers. !e Genocide 6atc! e$site and e$sites of t!e Ca+*aign0s ot!er +e+$ers *rovide u*2to2t!e +inute resources t!roug! aggregated infor+ation on early arning signs of genocide and *oliticide $y issues andregions, and ai+s to educate t!e *u$lic a$out genocide and *oliticide. Muc! of t!e or4 of Genocide 6atc! and t!e International Ca+*aign is done $e!ind t!e scenes t!roug! direct access to *olicy +a4ers in4ey govern+ents !o *ut *ressure to $ear on states t!at are $eginning to engage in genocidal $e!avior.Hac>ues #e+elin !as initiated t!e edited online reference in genocide studies, nline Encyclo*edia of Mass iolence. &@  !is *roFect e+erged in &''; in an effort to coalesce +ultidisci*linary efforts to understand genocide and +assacres, suc! as case studies, c!ronological indees and *eer2revieed analytical contri$utions, in a regularly u*dated electronic data$ase, $ringing t!e co++unities of acade+ics, 3G s and Fournalists toget!er. A ne e$site, Genocide Prevention 3o, a *roFect of t!e Institute on t!e -olocaust and Genocide in Herusale+, a +e+$er of t!e International Ca+*aign, ill inaugurate an online +aga5ine on genocide *revention in &''.  Emerging trend: doctrinal eolution Many of t!e ter+s of t!e Genocide Convention re+ained undefined $y case la until <<=. Before t!e conviction of t!e E>uatorial Guinean tyrant Macias 3gue+a for genocide in <<, no national court !ad convicted any *erson of genocide since t!e Genocide Convention $eca+e international la, andt!e decision of t!at court defined no ter+s. !e first case filed under t!e Convention $efore an international court as t!e case filed in t!e International Court of Hustice $y India against Pa4istan for t!eBanglades! genocide of <, $ut t!at case as it!dran after a di*lo+atic settle+ent. &:  #ee t!e Center for #yste+ic Peace led $y Monty Mars!all for t!e Glo$al Re*orts at !tt*KK.syste+ic*eace.orgK.  &;  #ee -eldt in t!is volu+e for furt!er discussion. &?  #ee Genocide 6atc! for +ore infor+ation on genocide and its de$ates and issues, events and u*dates, and recent nes a$out *articular regions at !tt*KK.genocideatc!.orgK!o+e.!t+l. &@  #ee nline Encyclo*edia of Mass iolence for +ore details at !tt*KK.+assviolence.orgK. ;

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Jul 25, 2017
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