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1. Assessing progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda African Development…
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  • 1. Assessing progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda African Development Bank Group African Union Empowered lives. Resilient nations.
  • 2. African Development Bank Group African Union Empowered lives. Resilient nations. Assessing progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda
  • 3. Ordering information To order copies of MDG Report 2014: Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, please contact: Publications Economic Commission for Africa P.O. Box 3001 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Tel: +251 11 544-9900 Fax: +251 11 551-4416 E-mail: ecainfo@uneca.org Web: www.uneca.org © United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, African Union, African Development Bank and United Nations Development Programme, 2014 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia All rights reserved First printing October 2014 ISBN: 978-99944-61-32-5 eISBN: 978-99944-62-32-2 Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted. Acknowledgement is requested, together with a copy of the publication. Designed and printed by the ECA Documents Publishing Unit. ISO 14001:2004 certified.
  • 4. Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda iii Table of Contents Foreword ........................................................................................................................................ vii Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................ix A note on methodology.................................................................................................................xi Acronyms and abbreviations...................................................................................................... xii Executive summary...................................................................................................................... xiv SECTION I: The Role of Initial Conditions in Africa’s MDG Performance............................... 1 SECTION II: Tracking Progress.....................................................................................................11 MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger.................................................................................................................11 MDG 2:  Achieve universal primary education.....................................................................................................................32 MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women...........................................................................................40 MDG 4: Reduce child mortality......................................................................................................................................................56 MDG 5: Improve maternal health................................................................................................................................................61 MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases................................................................................................... 68 MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability.........................................................................................................................75 MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development...............................................................................................85 SECTION III: Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda................................................................................................................103 Pillar One: Structural economic transformation and inclusive growth...............................................................104 Pillar Two: Science, technology, and innovation (STI)....................................................................................................108 Key priority areas..................................................................................................................................................................................111 Pillar Three: People-Centred Development.........................................................................................................................112 Pillar Four: Environmental Sustainability, Natural Resources Management, and Disaster Risk Management................................................................................................................................................................................114 Pillar Five: Peace and Security.......................................................................................................................................................117 Pillar Six: Financing and Partnership for Implementation of the Post-2015 Development Agenda.........119 SECTION IV: Conclusions and Policy Perspectives................................................................122 ANNEX 1: Selected Official Development Assistance Flows................................................126 ANNEX 2: Official List of MDG Indicators................................................................................129 References....................................................................................................................................132
  • 5. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014iv List of Figures Figure 0.1: Real GDP Growth (percent) in Africa excluding North Africa......................................................................2 Figure 0.2: Trends in GDP per capita levels (in $) for developing regions, 1980-2010............................................3 Figure 0.3: Illicit financial flows from Africa over the 1970-2009 period, $ billion.....................................................4 Figure 0.4: Trends in armed conflicts, 1990-2012.........................................................................................................................5 Figure 0.5: Trend in GDP per capita levels across regions, 1990 (purchasing power parity)..............................7 Figure 0.6: Poverty trends in the United States (% below the national poverty line)............................................8 Figure 1.1: Africa’s 20 fastest-growing economies compared with China, India and Brazil, average annual growth, 2008-2013...........................................................................................................................13 Figure 1.2: Populations living above and below $1.25/day in low income countries (LICs), 1981-2010...................................................................................................................................................................................14 Figure 1.3: Average per capita income of the extreme poor in Africa excluding North Africa, 1990-2010..................................................................................................................................................................................15 Figure 1.4: Global share of poverty among developing regions, 2010 (%)................................................................15 Figure 1.5: Progress in combating poverty in Africa (%).......................................................................................................18 Figure 1.6: Regional comparison of income inequality (Gini coefficient), 1990–2009.........................................20 Figure 1.7: Correlations between growth and inequality in Africa................................................................................ 22 Figure 1.8: Regional comparison of youth unemployment, 2007-13.............................................................................24 Figure 1.9: Labour productivity: a comparison of East Asia, North Africa and Africa (excluding North Africa), 2001-13.........................................................................................................................................................26 Figure 1.10: Regional performance on the Global Hunger Index, 1990-2013.............................................................27 Figure 1.11: Progress in reducing undernutrition, 1990-2013 (%).......................................................................................29 Figure 1.12: Past and future trends in eradicating poverty in Africa................................................................................31 Figure 2.1: Gap to net enrolment target in primary education, 2011............................................................................33 Figure 2.2: Net Primary school enrolment rates by region................................................................................................. 34 Figure 2.3: Primary school completion rate, male and female (%)..................................................................................35 Figure 2.4:   Literacy rates of 15-24 years old, male and female, 2011 (%).......................................................................37 Figure 3.1: Gender parity in primary education across regions, 1990 and 2011......................................................41 Figure 3.2: Progress on gender parity in primary school enrolment.............................................................................42 Figure 3.3: Summary of gender parity performance in primary school......................................................................43 Figure 3.4: Progress on gender parity in secondary enrolment, 1990-2011...............................................................45 Figure 3.5: Gender parity improvement in secondary schools, various years ........................................................46 Figure 3.6: Percentage change in the Gender Parity Index at the primary, secondary and tertiary levels, 1990-2011...................................................................................................................................................47 Figure 3.7: Share of women in paid non-agriculture sector, 1990-2011.......................................................................49 Figure 3.8: Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector...............................................49 Figure 3.9: Female to male wage ratio in Africa.........................................................................................................................51 Figure 3.10: Percentage of seats held by women in national parliaments across regions of the world, various years............................................................................................................................................................................52 Figure 3.11: Percentage of seats held by women in national parliaments, various years, 1990 and 2013.....................................................................................................................................................................................53 Figure 4.1: Under-five mortality rates by region........................................................................................................................56 Figure 4.2: African countries’ progress in reducing the under-five mortality rate.................................................57 Figure 4.3: Expected vs. actual under-five mortality rate (U5MR)....................................................................................59 Figure 4.4: Expected vs. actual infant mortality rates (IMRs) in Africa...........................................................................59 Figure 5.1: Trends in estimates of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) across African regions, various years............................................................................................................................................................................62 Figure 6.1: HIV incidence, prevalence and deaths in West, Central, East and Southern Africa, 1990-2012..................................................................................................................................................................................69
  • 6. Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda v Figure 6.2: Estimated malaria cases and death rate in Africa excluding North Africa, 2000-2012................70 Figure 6.3: Average tuberculosis prevalence, death rate and incidence for Africa, selected years, 1990-2011...................................................................................................................................................................................72 Figure 6.4: Countries that have progressed in reducing TB  incidence, prevalence and death rates between 1990 and 2011 (%) .........................................................................................................................................73 Figure 6.5: Countries that have regressed in TB  incidence, prevalence and death rates between 1990 and 2011 (%) ...............................................................................................................................................................74 Figure7.1: Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2 ) (metric tonnes of CO2 per capita) (CDIAC), 1990 and 2010..............................................................................................................................................................................................76 Figure 7.2: Drinking water coverage by developing regions, 1990–2012 (%)..........................................................79 Figure 7.3: Sanitation coverage trends by region, 1990-2012(%)......................................................................................81 Figure 7.4: Regions that increased access to improved sanitation (% of the population), 2000-2012.......81 Figure 8.1: Net ODA by DAC donors as a percentage of their GNI................................................................................ 88 Figure 8.2: ODA to North Africa, (constant 2012 $ million)...................................................................................................89 Figure 8.3: ODA to Africa excluding North Africa, (constant 2012 $ million).............................................................89 Figure 8.4: Average disbursements of ODA to Africa (constant 2012 $ million).....................................................90 Figure 8.5: Percentage growth in real disbursements of ODA to Africa.....................................................................90 Figure 8.6: ODA by sector (Current prices $ million)................................................................................................................91 Figure 8.7: ODA received in landlocked developing countries (as a percentage of GNI)..................................91 Figure 8.8: ODA received in Small Island Developing States (as a percentage of GNI).......................................92 Figure 8.9: Developed country imports from developing countries, admitted duty free, 2011 (%)..........94 Figure 8.10: Agriculture support estimate for OECD countries and the European Union (as a percentage of their GDP).................................................................................................................................................95 Figure 8.11: IMF bailout during the sub-prime and Eurozone crises................................................................................97 Figure 8.12: Mobile phone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants............................................................................................ 98 Figure 8.13: Mobile phone subscriptions and fixed telephone lines per 100 inhabitants: average for all African nations, 1990–2012............................................................................................................................... 99 Figure 8.14: Internet users per 100 inhabitants..........................................................................................................................100 Figure 9.1: Shares of value added for the agricultural, manufacturing and services sectors (averages for Africa excluding South Africa and North Africa countries)........................................105 Figure 9.2: Employment share by sector, Africa (excluding North Africa)................................................................106 List of Tables Table 0.1: Top five destinations by share of total illicit financial flows for selected African countries and sectors where there are significant illicit financial flows (trade mispricing only), 2008......5 Table 0.2: Comparison of the rate-of-change based methodology and the current approach used by the United Nations.............................................................................................................................................9 Table 1.1: Progress in reducing hunger (Global Hunger Index), 1990–2013............................................................27 Table 3.1: Level of improvement on primary school parity, 1990-2011.....................................................................44 Table 3.2: Employment shares by sector and gender, selected years, 2000-12....................................................50 Table 4.1: Status of progress in under-five-mortality rates in African countries, 2012.......................................58 Table 4.2: Neonatal mortality rate and neonatal deaths as a share of under-five deaths, 1990 and 2012.................................................................................................................................................................................... 60 Table 5.1: Trends in estimates of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) across regions, selected years, 1990-2013..................................................................................................................................................................................61 Table 5.2: Births attended by skilled health personnel in Africa (%).............................................................................63 Table 5.3: Percentage of married women aged 15-49 using modern methods and annual percentage change by region, 2008 and 2012..................................................................................................66
  • 7. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014vi Table 5.4: Women whose need for modern methods of contraceptives is not met, by region, 2008 and 2012 (%)...............................................................................................................................................................66 Table 6.1: Malaria prevalence and death rates across regions, 2000-2012................................................................70 Table 7.1: Protected terrestrial and marine areas to total territorial area (%)...........................................................78 Table 7.2: Percentage of the population with access to safe drinking water, rural and urban, 1990 and 2012.........................................................................................................................................................................79 Table 7.3: Percentage of the population using improved sanitation facilities, urban and rural, 1990 and 2012.........................................................................................................................................................................82 Table 8.1: Status of highly indebted poor countries (HIPC) Initiative in Africa, as of September 2013..........95 Tab
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