Mega Merger for 3 Banks in Malaysia

Finance & Banking industry , making the a history or a big mistake ?
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    Oct 2014, Issue 1 Mega bank emerges? What’s Our OPINION ?   Our hypothetical scenario assumes that CIMB Islamic Bank is priced at a P/BV of 1.7x (FY14E ROE: 14%) and RHB Islamic Bank at 1.0x (ROE: 9%), while MBSB issues shares at a P/BV of 1.8x (ROE: 16%) to acquire both entities. This translates to an acquisition cost of MYR9.7b and we estimate CIMB-RHB could end up with a 58% stake in MBSB while EPF’s shareholding would dilute to 27% from 65%. We estimate an FY14 ROE of 11.1% for the enlarged MBSB and ascribe a P/BV range of 1.3-1.5x, which translates to a fair value (FV) of MYR2.81-3.24 (+14-32% upside). Our base case, being a P/BV valuation of 1.4x implies MYR3.03 FV or 23% upside. We believe there is a trading angle to MBSB. Uncertainties now are pricing and structure of the Islamic banking entities merger. If our scenario does not pan out, MBSB shareholders would still either get bought out or get to exchange their shares for the largest financial institution in Malaysia. The downside risk is of the CIMB-RHB-MBSB merger falling through or the pricing/structure of the deal being significantly different from what we have envisaged. Key Point: - 1.Using MBSB as a vehicle for Islamic Banking 2.Asset in total ã  A possibility of MBSB not to become the vehicle to become the biggest Islamic bank ã Upside 14-32%  Assuming P/BV Range of 11.1% Base Case FV Of MYR 3.03. ã  Depended on Net Interest Income To Support Growth   Lorem Ipsum A possibility of MBSB to become a Islamic Vehicle for three bank will encounter a big tussle base on non  bank experience and non compliance  by MBSB. The expertise by MBSB is questionable compare to the rest of the bank. MBSB is leading comparative to asset but before 5 th  July 2013 there competes within the line as non bank where they offer non compliance product against BNM. The people lead for MBSB has less experience compare to other Bank. With the step of Making MBSB as a vehicle without looking at cost & benefit will ultimately put the investment into risk. Using the Tawaruq concept with having the case blow up in the sky  being suspended for having non compliance back in 2013 categories as CIMB, RHB & MBSB strength   3 short selling is well know in the public, MBSB has used its right a non  banking license to its advantage. CIMB in the other way and RHB has a difference approach of Islamic banking  but their approach is not impeccable to the market compare to Maybank maybe this will be the next reason for CIMB to take over Bank Islam as their next collection of acquisition. CIMB Under the leadership of current CEO they has manage to compete and proof themselves in Capital and consumer market but yet they need improve in terms of sales oriented environment. Their biggest competitors are Maybank where its catching up in term of numbers. Their Product should be more diversify and flexible for instance faster approval and technology oriented. RHB The people is always a problem but yet the leadership just landed and he is doing many changes . The people energy need to be change so they can synergize and compete with market. Their Mortgage asset is expending but the Personal loan is growing slowly at average rate of 2 % better than MBSB and CIMB. (CIMB recently closed its Personal loan department) MBSB With no more advantage of being non license bank MBSB team is facing difficulty in term of asset and liability. To comply with BNM under FSA is not an easy job yet the Management has to proof with their track record The Sales team for Retail is downsizings where their focus is on mortgage yet the number is not raising due to not interesting pricing. Merger seems a good exit plan for MBSB with the environment they are facing. Board Of Top Management Middle Management Lower Management Table of Leadership in 3 Banks CIMB RHB MBSB   CDMA Investment Author: Izzy Contact:
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