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ZONE OF UNCERTAINTY IN DECISION-MAKING PROCESS ON THE USE OF SECURITY FORCES

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The paper focuses on the theoretical determination of the zone of uncertainty, the reasons for its origin and the ways to overcome it in the decision-making process on the use of security forces. In this decision-making process, the security forces
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  73 V INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE SAFETY AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT  –   THEORY AND PRACTISE SAFETY FOR THE FUTURE  –   SecMan 2019. ZONE OF UNCERTAINTY IN DECISION-MAKING PROCESS ON THE USE OF SECURITY FORCES Zoran Kara vidić 1 , Vinko Žnidaršić 2 , Bojan Kuzmanović 3   1  University of Defence in Belgrade, Belgrade, SERBIA, zkaravidic@gmail.com 2  University of Defence in Belgrade, Belgrade, SERBIA, vinko.znidarsic@va.mod.gov.rs 3  Serbian Armed Forces, Belgrade, SERBIA, bojank.kuzma@gmail.com  Abstract: The paper focuses on the theoretical determination of the zone of uncertainty, the reasons for its srcin and the ways to overcome it in the decision-making process on the use of security forces. In this decision-making process, the security forces leaders are constantly under certain temporal, social, economic or other constraints. Furthermore, an aggravating circumstance is the lack of information on necessary events that are most often manifested as the zones of uncertainty.  Keywords:  zone of uncertainty, security forces, modern environment 1. INTRODUCTION   The modern dynamic environment entails a large number of unknowns in which security forces leaders have to make decisions on the engagement of forces. Part of this unknown is related to the enemy, i.e. its military dimension and what is associated with hostile action. The second part of the unknown is related to one's own strength, ability to resist the enemy, and related aspects. The interaction of these unknowns later leads to smaller or larger zones of uncertainty. The zone of uncertainty is a burdensome environment in which security forces leaders constantly have to make decisions about the use of security forces. The concept of the zone of uncertainty has been increasingly mentioned in modern literature. It is mentioned in the same form in different sciences that give it specific meaning. In medicine and psychology, it is associated with the discovery of illnesses  1  but also with many common mental disorders   2  In economics and marketing, it deals with the customer's attitude about the problem of choosing when buying  3  It finds application not only in securing regions and facilities  4  but also in other scientific fields. What is common to all is that in each case there is a problem of decision-making objectively caused by ignorance of a complex environment or subjectively caused by the structure of the decision-making personality. For the purpose of reviewing the zone of uncertainty in the decision-making process on the use of security forces, the conceptual determination of the zone of uncertainty will be considered in Chapter Two. In the Third Chapter the reasons for the occurrence of a zone of uncertainty will be discussed. Chapter Four will outline possible solutions in preventing and overcoming decision-making problems in an environment where there is a zone of uncertainty, after which a conclusion will be given. 2. CONCEPTUAL DETERMINATION OF THE ZONE OF UNCERTAINTY The conceptual understanding of a zone of uncertainty must go from realizing the real problematic situation in which a certain level of ambiguity arises. The ambiguity is most often caused by a lack of information about the situation or by the inability to predict the future with  74 respect to a decision. While preparing and planning security operations, a great deal of information will be gathered about a potential enemy. This is the universal link of any security forces operation. In developed countries, ways of collecting information are constantly being updated and modernized. The information dimension is becoming increasingly important since the domination in that environment contributes most to the success of the operation. This is especially important for low-intensity conflict  5   and modern hybrid warfare  6  . Smaller states try to parry the large, with various asymmetric actions. Terrorism is a global threat that has proven to be the biggest problem for preventive action, however, conventional conflicts of security forces are also a major challenge. There will always be some incomplete information in the intelligence work that will lead to some ambiguities. The ambiguity in some situations may be overcome by a different interpretation, certain assumptions about the situation, or otherwise. However, if it is not resolved in some way, it most often grows, binds to itself other more or less known information. Eventually, the ambiguity evolves into a zone of uncertainty. The zone of uncertainty, unlike ambiguity, makes it difficult to make less important and major decisions in the decision-making process. In some situations it also makes it impossible as the situation looks completely unknown. Seldom can an example be given of deciding on the use of security forces in a modern environment in which a smaller or larger zone of uncertainty has not occurred. 3. THE REASON FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF ZONE OF UNCERTAINTY The occurrence of the zone of uncertainty cannot be accurately perceived, i.e. it is not possible to say that there is one reason that most often occurs in such situations. The unknown that will grow into a zone of uncertainty can be directed by the enemy as well as by one's own forces. It is realistic to conclude that, in different situations, the combination of these unknowns will have a decisive influence on forming a zone of uncertainty. The aforementioned aspect of the observation can be called external conditions of occurrence and it is always in the environment of those who make the decisions. Beside the external, the internal conditions for the occurrence of the zone of uncertainty cannot be excluded. A part of the decision-makers will see that there is a zone of uncertainty in situations where other decision-makers will not see it. This situation can be viewed from different aspects. Also, to consider the reasons for the occurrence of the zones of uncertainty, it is important to mention the significance of all persons participating in any way in the decision-making process. Security forces leader holds the most important role, however, the following points show that other persons in the command or headquarters, i.e. in the leading team that conducts the operation, are also quite important. Persons who are involved in the process and make less important decisions cannot be ignored. The most important factors for the occurrence but also prevention and the overcoming of the zones of uncertainty will be singled out in the following text from the external and internal conditions of the occurrence of the zone of uncertainty. 3.1. Qualifications of the persons  The first aspect is job qualification. A better-educated or trained leader will be more prepared for the various situations that may challenge his future work. Today's complex environment confronts security forces leaders with a number of challenges that are most often unique. Training security forces decision-makers implies different levels of education or specialization depending on the job that the persons will do in the future. In both domestic and international practice, through a theoretical understanding, education seeks to acquaint the student as much  75 as possible with the environment in which the security forces are engaged. From the theoretical settings adapted to the current situation emerges the practical or applied part of the education, which deals with a large number of situations that pose certain challenges to future security forces leaders. The situations being studied tend to explain the behavior of the leaders in current and most likely situations. In this respect, a school system that is said to be good in the field of security is emerging, as long as it follows modern trends and conveys focused knowledge. However, it is obvious that one level of education is not enough for the whole career of the security forces leader. Specializations are necessary. Specializations must include more specific trainings for specific duties of different levels and professions to justify their existence. Specializations cannot have a structure of education where the future leader is trained for lower positions and in which he partly acquires general knowledge, partly professional and specialist one. A higher level of education, at least one part of it, must provide specialization to certain higher duties. In this way, the person prepares for future actual duty but also for decision-making about the security forces. A person can hardly be an expert in a number of areas because the areas considered in the engagement of the security forces are broad. Essentially, education that realistically approaches current problems, upholding the basic principles of science and casting doubt on previous knowledge will inspire the beginning of a new theoretical way that will become the base for acting in different situations. The principle of not criticizing leads to dogmatic behavior and no output can be of good quality because it does not contain new ideas, nor does it validate the old one. In this regard, the quality of education will be reflected in practice, and better education will lead to better results for all leaders attending it. Leaders who have not had the opportunity to receive this type of education will not be prepared for the different situations that await them. For them, zones of uncertainty will be more frequent. Such cases can be seen beyond the consideration of the security forces. Placing inexperienced leaders in head positions is something that automatically leads to the condition that the work is not done in the best possible way. In the private sector, this practice has long since been put out. It can be concluded that the school has a great impact on solving the zones of uncertainty. However, that is not the case for every school, only for the one that is properly directed towards modern tendencies. 3.2. Psychological aspect The zones of uncertainty create a certain pressure on the personality after which the person may show different reactions. Different psychological personality profiles will approach the problem diversely. Intelligence and perception can have a positive effect in eliminating the zone of uncertainty. However, the temperament and character of a particular decision-maker are also very important. Some persons will not accept the assistance and suggestions of experts and will base the decision on personal experience. Throughout history, there have been successful military leaders who based the decision on their understanding of the environment and situation without taking the advice of others into consideration. However, today's environment, being complex and dynamic, stands out from anything that existed in the past and requires a new approach. The experiential aspect can be used, but to a certain extent and in certain situations. Most often it can have a positive effect on lower-level decisions.  76 For fear of error, some persons will procrastinate to make the decision until the last moment, and then make a hasty decision, while some will try to delegate their leadership duties to the superiors or subordinates by "running away" from responsibility. When considering the psychological aspect, the team work in decision-making should also be mentioned, since it is most often used in the operations of the security forces. Group psychology can express its specific traits at certain moments and thus contribute to deepening or reducing the problematic situation. There are many leadership schools that strive to make good leaders, better decision-makers, but none of them can fundamentally change the existing personality traits that will emerge in a crisis. Therefore, the system should function in such a way in order to enable the right persons to come to right places. 3.3. System (organizational) aspect System solutions can help reduce uncertainty zones. System solutions to this aspect may imply doctrinal and normative regulation of a particular area in which the zone of uncertainty arises. Regulation means proper and detailed issuing of decision-making procedures. There will be less space in such procedures where one does not know what to do. Procedures should be designed to issue as much detail as possible. Working on such regulations has led to the so-called 'Standard Operating Procedures'. The detail of the issued procedures has the advantage of reducing the number of situations that were not considered and thus reduce the number of zones of uncertainty. On the other hand, issuing such procedures requires a large time sacrifice and excessive paperwork, which in some situations may be too complex to review, especially if the time period in which the decision has to be made is limited. In addition to procedures, system solutions may also include specific guidelines that are used in common situations. Examples of system solutions and guidelines are diverse. In some states, there is a guideline not to negotiate with terrorists in the event of abduction. In addition to the largest number of positive outputs of this guideline, which substantially prevents future similar situations, in some situations in simpler cases it may prevent making a decision that will reduce the loss of human and other resources. The vast majority of system solutions provide overwhelmingly positive results, but in a small number of cases they can bring leaders into certain zones of uncertainty because the action that seems to lead to a better solution represents the opposite of the system guideline and solution. 4. SOLUTIONS Taking preventive steps certainly contributes to reducing zones of uncertainty. The ambiguities that develop and evolve must be addressed in a timely manner. For this reason, priority must be given to obtaining information on the unknown or unclear and relevant for decision-making. Collecting priority data and focusing on the essential elements can help to partly reduce ambiguities. Directing the information gathering management puts the development of ambiguities in control. Engaging the maximum capacity of not only subordinates but also superiors will in most cases yield a particular solution or part of a solution. This way, zones of uncertainty will appear less frequently. In most of the existing decision-making processes regarding the use of security forces, it has been made available to the command, headquarters and the leading team to identify ambiguities and propose a solution. The leader decides on the proposed solution or directs the resolution of the ambiguities. In this sense, active participation of the leaders in the decision-making process can lead to faster resolution of the zones of uncertainty.  77 If it is not possible to obtain the information that would reduce the ambiguity, then that information should be analyzed through the effects it can cause. In this respect, preventive action should be taken. The leader can reduce the significance of the effect of the unknown information and thus accept a certain degree of risk. In these ways, ambiguities will not grow into zones of uncertainty, and so this can be considered as prevention. In part, zones of uncertainty can be solved by different methods of multi-criteria or multi-attribute decision-making. However, due to its complexity, this approach is limited only to those parts of the decision-making process where the main decision on using the unit is made. Furthermore, this situation requires enough time. There are methods that guide the whole decision-making process, but preparing them requires having a large experience base of similar operations. 5. CONCLUSION The modern environment is becoming increasingly unpredictable. The importance of proper preparation for zones of uncertainty is increasing. Preparation must cover all the circumstances in which a decision is made, from preparing organizational and system solutions, through receiving proper education, to selecting appropriate persons who take part in the decision-making process. Working with zones of uncertainty must represent an expected situation in which the people involved in the decision-making process, especially the team leader, will be able to rationally approach. One cannot be fully prepared for every situation, but the education system can contribute to the knowledge of similar situations. Furthermore, the leadership traits of high quality that are manifested through relationships with people contribute to a better resolution of the situation. There is no universal solution for the zones of uncertainty. There is only a solution that implies realistic and correct handling of situations where a more or less significant decision has to be made. REFERENCES [1]   Fiorentino, F., & Treasure, T. (2013). Pulmonary metastasectomy for colorectal cancer: making the case for a randomized controlled trial in the zone of uncertainty. The Journal of thoracic and cardiovascular surgery , 146(4), pp.748-752. [2]   Dew, K., Dowell, A., McLeod, D., Collings, S., & Bushnell, J. (2005). “This glorious twilight zone o f uncertainty”: Mental health consultations in general practice in New Zealand, Social science & medicine , 61(6) , pp.1189-1200. [3]   Bleuel, B. (1990). Customer dissatisfaction and the zone of uncertainty,  Journal of Services Marketing , 4(1), pp. 49-52, ISSN: 0887-6045. [4]   Otter, H. S., & Capobianco, M. (2000). Uncertainty in integrated coastal zone management,  Journal of Coastal Conservation , 6(1),   pp. 23-32, ISSN 1400-0350, e-ISSN 1874-7841. [5]   Boe, O., Bergh, J., & Johansen, R. B. (2017). Leadership Challenges for Joint Force Commanders during the Transition from a High-intensity to a Low-intensity Conflict,  Arts and Social Sciences Journal  08(03), pp. 1-2, ISSN: 2151-6200.   [6]   Wither, J. K. (2016). Making Sense of Hybrid Warfare, Connections , 15(2),   ISSN: 1812-1098, e-ISSN 1812-2973.  
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