Abraaj Emerging With Confidencev2

Strictly Private & Confidential. This is not research and is not intended as such. This presentation represents Abraaj Capital’s views on certain trends prevalent in the MENASA region and the impact of the global economic downturn on the region. Please also refer to the disclaimer at the end. Emerging With Confidence Reassessing the Investment Case for MENASA One Year On September 2009 Emerging With Confidence – Table of Contents Middle East, North Africa & South Asia: A Region Without Parall
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  September 2009 Emerging With Confidence Strictly Private & Confidential. This is not research and is not intended as such. This presentation represents Abraaj Capital’s views on certain trends prevalent in the MENASA region and the impact of the global economic downturn on the region. Please also refer to the disclaimer at the end. Reassessing the Investment Case for MENASAOne Year On   2  Emerging With Confidence –Table of Contents Middle East, North Africa & South Asia: A Region Without Parallel …………………………………………………………….. 3  The MENASA Region   The Region’s Connectivity with the Global Economy  Performance Through the Crisis: Assessing the Impact of the Global Downturn ……………………………………………. 6  GDP Growth Trends   The Real Economy   Financial Sector   Oil   Real Estate   Currencies and Inflation  Explaining the Last Twelve Months: Why Did Regional Economies Perform Relatively Well? …………………………….17  Nature of the Economies   Low Leverage   Sovereign Strength  Looking Forward With Confidence: What Will Drive Further Growth?…………………………………………………………26  Macro Perspective   Petrodollars   People   Policies   Pent-up Demand   3  Middle East, North Africa & South Asia: A Region Without Parallel The MENASA region includes the GCC, Levant, Turkey, North Africaand South Asia (India and Pakistan), linked to the global economy through global trade, particularly oil and gas exports, capital flows and human connectivity / immigration  Note: While we treat MENASA as asingle bloc we acknowledge thatSouth Asia (India in particular) candistort statistics given its size. Wealso acknowledge that manyinstitutions look at MENA rather thanMENASA. Therefore, wherepossible, we separate out thestatistics for India and/or South Asia.  4  India 2008 Nominal GDP:  US$ 1,226 billion ’08/’09 Real GDP Growth:  6.1% / 5.5% ’10-’13 Real GDP Growth:  8.1% 2008 Population:  1,148 million GCC 2008 Nominal GDP:  US$ 1,049 billion ’08/’09 Real GDP Growth:  6.4% / 0.0% ’10-’13 Real GDP Growth:  4.6% 2008 Population:  40 million North Africa 2008 Nominal GDP:  US$ 528 billion ’08/’09 Real GDP Growth:  5.5% / 3.1% ’10-’13 Real GDP Growth:  5.7% 2008 Population:  164 million The MENASA Region MENASA has a combined GDP of US$ 3.7 trillion growing at 5.9% p.a., with a population of 1.6 billion 2008 Nominal GDP:  US$ 730 billion ’08/’09 Real GDP Growth:  1.1% / -5.6% ’10-’13 Real GDP Growth:  3.5% 2008 Population:  72 million Source: EIU as of July 2009, IMF, Bloomberg, PCTAS, UN Comtrade,McKinsey & Company  PakistanTurkey 2008 Nominal GDP:  US$ 165 billion ’08/’09 Real GDP Growth:  2.0% / 3.7% ’10-’13 Real GDP Growth:  4.9% 2008 Population:  177 million Levant 2008 Nominal GDP:  US$ 48 billion ’08/’09 Real GDP Growth:  6.0% / 2.5% ’10-’13 Real GDP Growth:  3.8% 2008 Population:  10 million QatarTunisiaJordanLebanonUAEKuwaitMoroccoAlgeriaLibyaEgyptTurkeySaudiArabiaBahrainPakistanIndiaOman One region:  C  omplimentary and diversified resources including hydrocarbon wealth and a large pool of skilled labor   Cultural ties:  The MENASA region has common religions, common customs, shared languages and has had periods of common governance rangingfrom the Persian Empire to the British EmpireãAs recently as the 1960s, the Gulf countries’currency was the ‘Gulf Rupee’. It was issued by the Reserve Bank of India  Trade ties:  Trade between the MENASA countries increased from US$ 45 billion in 2002 to US$ 229 billion in 2007, growing at an annual rate of 38%  Capital flows and investments:  In-bound M&A activity increased more than six-fold between 2002 and 2008 while cross-border investments havebecome deeper  Labor mobility:  In 2008, MENASA countries received more than US$ 59 billion in remittances, of which US$ 16 billion srcinated from the regionitself, predominately the GCCãApproximately 25% of the population in the GCC countries srcinate from India and PakistanãIntra-regional travel increased from 33 to 58 million passengers from 2000 to 2007
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